And so Interleague play marches on into Sunday’s lineup. Diving right into the 15-game fray is a highly touted pitchers duel between the Mets’ Johan Santana and Yankees starter, A.J. Burnett.
Mets at Yankees – 1:05 p.m. EDT
Every time the Mets’ Johan Santana (8-3, 2.39 ERA) takes his turn in the rotation either bettors cringe at the inflated money line figure or backers hope to collect on the club’s inadequacies. In eight wins this season, profits have stayed above the $100 dollar mark (on a $100 bet), currently staying put at +181. But there has been some reason for concern. Santana was tagged for five earned runs in his last appearance as a $1.48 favorite against division rival, Philadelphia. Despite the win, Santana has now surrendered an average of 3.7 runs per game in the last three compared to the unstoppable, 1.1 runs per game allowed in the first nine starts.
As for the Yankees’ A.J. Burnett (4-3, 4.89), a 2.2 inning, 84 pitch outing against the Red Sox on Tuesday was embarrassing from a performance standpoint and frustrating for those backing New York. In his last six outings, Burnett is 2-3 in the record books. And the results haven’t been spectacular in Yankee Stadium where the 10-year vet is just 1-1 in his last six home starts. We’re talking about a starting pitcher who’s been listed as a favorite of minus-160 or more six times in the last 10 and who’s been posted in the minus-200 range three times this season. But at the end of the day, backers should consider themselves lucky that the money line figure is still in the black at plus-88 before heading into Sunday’s contest.
Take into account that the Yankees have been demoralized against southpaw pitching recently. In just the last 10 games, the Pinstripes are batting .183, scoring 4.4 runs per nine innings. This pales in comparison to the same team that ranks fourth best in the league, scoring 99 runs and batting .296 versus lefties on the season. But overall, the Yanks are swinging under the radar these days, totaling a .222 BA from both sides of the plate.
And so the ‘under’ is 4-1-1 in the Yankees last six. The Mets compliment this angle by going 4-2 on the ‘under’ in their last six road games.
Boston at Philadelphia – 1:35 p.m. EDT
Opening books as a $1.35 visiting favorite, Boston is now in the AL East drivers’ seat. Why? After sweeping the Yanks in Fenway for the seventh straight ‘W’ against their rival in series play, taking nine of the last 11 and receiving magnificent pitching in the last 10 games (2.49 ERA), the Red Sox are riding a wave of momentum.
Boston’s Josh Beckett (7-2, 3.77) has thrown two shutouts in his last two starts and three in the last four outings. And if that’s not impressive enough then how about allowing one hit in the 7-0 shutout win against the Yankees on Tuesday and two hits surrendered in the 10-5 whooping against Detroit last week? All in all, Becket has given up 15 hits in the last five games (three hits per game!). And the best part of all; books have set his price to over minus-150 just twice in the last nine starts. There is some value to be had.
Now Philly is no slouch. But when paired up against the Red Sox, the results have been less then flattering. The Phillies are 3-14 in their last 17 head-to-head games and 1-6 in the last seven games alone.
Keeping up with current times has Philadelphia batting .236 in the last 10. A 6-4 ‘under’ record has been the result of the offensive problems coupled with a pitching staff actually bucking the seasonal trend. To be more clear, the Phillies’ starting staff owns a 5.69 ERA. But in just the last 10 days, that same staff (including the pen) has improved drastically, tossing a 2.75 ERA.
Reliever turned starter, J.A. Happ (4-0, 2.98) will look to continue the team’s success off the mound. Happ did fumble somewhat in his last start against the Mets (giving up six hits and four runs in 5.1 innings) but the no decision kept the slingers’ record at a perfect 4-0.
Boston enters Sunday’s throw down garnering an impressive 22-6-2 ‘under’ record in its last 30 games, an 8-2 performance in the last 10 road games and again, hitting the ‘under’ eight times in its last 11 interleague contests. For the Phillies, the ‘under’ has been red hot at 14-3-1 in the last 18 interleague games, 9-3 in their last 12 as an underdog and 14-5-1 in their last 20. All roads are pointing to another ‘under’ play despite books lowering that figure to nine runs.
Extra Innings
-- ESPN Sunday Night Baseball will get underway at 8:05 p.m. EDT. Cleveland and St. Louis are the two teams scheduled to take the field with most books listing the Indians as $1.06 home favorites.
-- Cliff Lee (3-6, 3.17) will represent the left-handed arm for the Tribe. Allowing 1.9 runs per game in his last 10 starts should have paved the way for a much better record then 2-4 but at the same token the offense has only supplied support of 3.7 runs per game.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-3 in Lee’s last 10 starts despite hitting the ‘over’ in the last two games. In the last six home starts, Lee is 5-1 on the ‘under’. When coming off a no decision in the last eight games (overlapping into games played in the 2008 season), Lee is 5-3 on the ‘under’.
-- The Indians as a team are 8-2-1 on the ‘under’ in their last 11 interleague games and 9-4 in the record books in their last 13 home games.
-- The Cardinals are looking to Chris Carpenter (4-0, 1.23) for the win. Coming back to baseball after tearing his oblique in April, Carpenter hasn’t missed a beat. On June 4 against Cincinnati, the right-hander recorded his 26th career complete game. On the season, Carpenter hasn’t surrendered more then three runs in any one outing. This is a guy who’s already thrown four games without giving up a run and is in control of a devastating 0.70 WHIP on the season. The ‘under’ is 4-2-1 in his last seven thanks to the holding off the bats in opposing lineups.
-- The problem with backing St. Louis is its 2-6 performance in the last eight. During the six defeats, the Cards have been responsible for scoring 2.5 runs per game. Despite this an abnormality is occurring. For batters who have logged in over 20 plate appearances, St. Louis’ batting order has come together for a .301 BA. This includes Colby Rasmus’ BA of .469 and Rick Ankiel socking the ball for a .326 BA. The drastic reduction comes from the team swinging at flies, going for a .219 BA in the last seven defeats.
-- The Cards are 2-7 in their last nine head-to-head games.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
