Half a dozen games around the diamond are scheduled throughout the afternoon hours on Thursday. You know the drill as we prepare to open our wallets up at the window. Narrowing our focus in this preview, let’s root out the underdogs. Are their some bonafide winners that books may be overlooking? What about road teams’ chances of exiting hostile territory and returning a profit?
St. Louis at N.Y. Mets – 1:10 p.m. EDT
We’ve got a great pitchers duel scheduled to take place in Citi Field. Using just the past few games as a measurement, St. Louis’ (40-33, +187) Chris Carpenter (5-1, 1.53 ERA) can be considered the “wild card”. The right-handed veteran is still yet to allow more then three runs in a given outing. Even more impressive has been the ability to lock down the opposition by not allowing more then six hits in any one of his nine starts on the year. In other words, Carpenter is as close to perfection as any slinger has been this season.
But besides winning games, gamblers have enjoyed the ‘under’ at 6-2-1 in Carpenter’s last nine trips to the hill. And while his 62-50-4 record on the ‘under’ dating back to the 2004 season isn’t overwhelming evidence for another ‘under’ play to cash in, the rate at which Carpenter has been throwing up impressive numbers isn’t something to put on the backburner. It’s just difficult to forget about the past two seasons of debilitating injuries that have struck fear in the Cardinals organization after signing the curveball specialist to a five-year, $65 million contract through 2011 (that deal was drawn up and executed during the end of 2006.
At the plate the Mets’ (36-34, -108) have been relatively consistent despite a 4-6 disappointment in the last 10. The disparity comes in the form of hitting .269 from both sides of the plate (.310 versus lefties this year) but only scoring 82 runs in June. Although not blatant enough in terms of offensive output, the ‘under’ is 4-2 in the last six.
As far as Johan Santana (8-5, 3.22) representing his club from the hill, a 1-3 performance in the last four starts doesn’t explain everything. The lefty is coming off a 3-1 loss against Tampa Bay, but giving up three hits and two runs thanks in large part to a Carlos Pena long ball was the icing on that cake. Remember this was the same Santana that pitched his way through six straight ‘under’ plays in the first six games of the season. Why? How’s holding the opposition to one run per game as an answer sound? Santana has thrown four shutouts in ’09 with the last one coming in a May 11 win over Atlanta (8-3).
After New York blew the doors off the St. Louis 11-0 on Wednesday, the ‘over’ is now 9-2-1 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings. This was the Mets' first time scoring double-digit runs since back on May 9 in a 10-1 victory over the Pirates.
Carpenter and the Cards are on the board as $1.25 visiting favorites. This is the third time that Santana has been listed as a 'dog this season and first as a home puppy. A low total of seven runs has been installed.
Chicago Cubs at Detroit – 1:05 p.m. EDT
Despite two straight defeats, the Cubs (34-34, -797) have been scoring five runs per game in the last six. This is important for the fact that Chicago is an unconscious, 26-4 when it has totaled five runs or more. The Cubs are just 7-1 off a win in Game 2 heading into Game 3, but with the 5-3 loss in Detroit last night that trend will not play a part in today's contest. In Game 3 after a loss, Chicago is just above the .500 mark at 5-4.
Southpaw starter Ted Lilly (7-4, 3.04) will matchup well against the Tigers (40-31, +705) given the fact that his team is 10-4 when he takes the mound. And despite Detroit’s 10th ranked, 342 runs produced, 86 runs scored versus southpaws ranks the club at a low, 17th in the Majors. As for Lilly, a 2-0 record in his last five starts has come on the heels of giving up 1.6 runs per game. The disparity, while not insurmountable, has been the opposition hitting .213 in Wrigley but .241 when Lilly is on the road.
Speaking of pitchers, next up on the slab for the Tigers will be struggling pitcher, Armando Galarraga (3-7, 5.62). How do you interpret giving up at least one home run per game in the last 10 straight appearances? That can’t be good for any slinger. His last two starts have seen Galarraga log in a total of six innings, allowing a lump sum of 16 hits and eight runs. Another disturbing stat on the sheet is 2.4 walks per game (33 total walks allowed). Most surprising in relation to the sloppy pitching is the ‘under’ taking control at 8-6 in Galarraga’s last 14 starts despite opponents ripping into the right-hander. All-in-all, Detroit’s offense has helped out Galarraga with 5.4 runs of support per start, but to no avail.
Despite the uphill climb concerning the pitching mismatch, Detroit is still a strong, 51-21 in its last 72 interleague games. The ‘under’ is 22-10 in Chicago’s last 32. The Tigers are being listed as slight, $1.05 home underdogs with a total of 9 1/2 set.
L.A. Dodgers at Chicago White Sox – 2:05 p.m. EDT
The Dodgers (47-25, +2000) continue to add separation in the NL West regardless of the Giants’ 19-9 record in the last 28. What L.A. has working in its favor is the strong pitching game. More specifically is Chad Billingsley (9-3, 2.83), his 1.27 WHIP and 5-2 matching records on the road and during the day.
This will be Billingsley’s first start against the White Sox (34-37, -335). But in recent games, the right-handed phenom is 3-0 in four starts. He’s allowed 6.2 hits, two runs and 5.4 Ks per game during this stretch. Billingsley is 1-4 on the run line in the last five games.
Chicago enters Thursday with a 8-2 record over the Dodgers in their last 10 meetings. However, a 4-9 slump in its last 13 home stands has been the complete opposite to a 10-4 run in its last 14 road games. Where to start? Some numbers complicating positive play include Chicago allowing 4.7 runs per game while scoring a putrid, 2.4 runs per game all in the same 14 home contests (run difference of minus-2.3 runs per game).
And coming full circle, the White Sox will have Clayton Richard (2-1, 4.03) going in Game 3 of this three-game set. First off, Chicago is 6-13 in Game 3’s this season. Second, Richard will be going up against a Dodgers club that shelling southpaws for a .289 BA with an 8th ranked, 103 runs. So what angle can we play here if the Sox seem like a total long shot? How about wagering on the total? The ‘under’ is 7-3-1 in Richard’s last 11 appearances (8 starts and 3 games in relief).
During the day, Richard is 0-0 but a 2.35 ERA in 15.1 innings, a stark contrast to a 4.28 ERA during evening duties (despite pitching 42.2 innings during the night time).
The ‘under’ is 8-4 in L.A.’s last 12 road games. In-fact the Dodgers have been able to cover the run line six times in its last eight road games. Staying on topic Chi-town has been installed as a $1.30 home underdog. A total of 9 1/2-runs can be found at most betting spots.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
