The countdown is on as All-Star weekend heads to Busch Stadium on July 14. But before the two week stretch to the Summer Classic gets underway we have unsettled business to tend to. That would be the last day of interleague play. Minus a two-game special in the evening hours, this tip sheet will focus on several afternoon cross-league contests.
Before we run through the games of interest, let it be known that once again the American League looks to have harnessed its dominance over the NL. Heading into Sunday, a 129-108 performance in the record books is in favor of AL teams this season. Some numbers which have projected the edge include the AL’s 3.95 ERA, a .264 BA and 1147 runs scored as opposed to the NL’s 4.53 ERA, .258 BA and 1015. While rudimentary at best without proper explanation, those three statistical categories aforementioned just begin to tell the story of this year’s interleague pairings.
Boston (B. Penny) at Atlanta (T. Hanson) – 1:30 p.m. EDT
Getting an early line published at -115 (bet $115 to make $100), Boston (46-28, +1118) has gone 18-6 in its last 24. The Red Sox starting rotation hasn’t been on its best behavior over the course of the season (4.15 ERA on the year), but a 3.79 ERA in the last 10 games is surely signs of improvement. The real area of focus is on a bullpen which has been spectacular. This is a core of players tossing the ball for a 2.99 ERA this season.
Between pitchers Ramon Ramirez at a high, 33.1 innings and Justin Masterson logging in a middle of the road, 23 innings only two relievers are above the 3.50 ERA mark in the pen (not counting Hunter Jones’ 8.00 ERA who hasn’t made an appearance since May 13). But in the last five games, allowing 4.4 runs per game while cashing in on the offensive side for six runs per game, the ‘over’ is 4-1.
Brad Penny (6-2, 4.93) has been impressive in his last three starts despite the 1-0 record. In wins against the Yankees, Marlins and Nationals, Penny surrendered a total of 15 hits and just four runs. His pitch counts have been high after just an average of just 5.4 innings in the last three games but for a slinger who had an ERA of 7.61 back on May 3, to say that Penny has made improvements would be an understatement.
The Braves (34-40, -1265) have seen their ups and downs turn on a dime. After taking back-to-back wins against the Cubs on Monday (2-0) and Yankees the following day (4-0), Atlanta now finds itself in a three-game slump.
Backers will be hoping that right-hander Tommy Hanson (3-0, 3.13) will be able to get the club back on its feet. Hanson has yet to give up an earned run since a win in Baltimore on Jun. 12, tossing two straight shutouts in Cincinnati and against the Yanks Jun. 18 and Jun. 23 congruently. During the daytime, Hanson has been a bit more vulnerable with a 4.50 ERA and three homers allowed (in two starts) versus a 1.64 ERA and zero long balls in 11 innings during the nighttime. A home BAA of .222 has been much stronger then batters stroking Hanson for a .279 BA on the road.
The ‘under’ is 23-11-2 in the last 37 head-to-head meetings.
Florida (A. Miller) at Tampa Bay (D. Price) – 1:38 p.m. EDT
Let’s kick off this summer time Sunday in a Florida rivalry match. The Marlins (38-38, +202) are the only club in the NL East to be in the black regarding money line profits. They ripped off five straight wins in a row before falling to the Rays (41-35, +98) in a 7-3 contest on Friday. Batting .307 and pulling in 5.7 runs per game in the last six games is one indication of working hard from the box. Atop the list of players’ performances includes Hanley Ramirez tearing into the opposition for a .500 BA and 15 RBIs during the six-game stretch.
Florida's southpaw Andrew Miller (2-3, 4.17 ERA) will get the nod to end the week. A seven inning, one hit and one run allowed performance was the best of the season in a 7-6 win over Baltimore on Tuesday. We can even go as far to say that it was Miller’s best start of his career. Righties have had problems touching the lefty, whiffing on pitches for a .235 BA on the season. But in only one start and two game appearances during the day, Miller is 0-0 with a 4.05 ERA. A .286 BA is far from being an impact as say his success versus right-handed hitters.
Miller’s 4-6 record with a 4.23 ERA in career June starts is something to heed but there’s no history of going up against Tampa Bay in years past.
Florida is 4-2 on the ‘over’ in its last six.
The Rays plan on countering Florida’s attack with David Price (1-2, 4.45). Coming off a damaging outing against Philadelphia on Tuesday (10-1), Price was creamed for 10 runs on seven hits in only 4.1 innings. Tampa has been giving its young arm plenty of run support (now at 6.5 runs per starts) but a 4.41 ERA starting ERA coupled with a 1-3 record during the evening hours is tough to offset.
The Rays are a solid 6-1 in their last seven (winning by an average score of 6.3 versus 4.2 runs per game). That sixth win mentioned came on Saturday in a low scoring, 3-2 contest. Although Tampa starter, Scott Kazmir only lasted five innings, allowing four hits and two runs proved the deciding factor.
Tampa Bay enters this contest with a 8-1 record in its last nine interleague home games not to mention a 10-2 run through the Marlins in their last 12 meetings together.
Colorado (A. Cook) at Oakland (V. Mazzaro) – 4:05 p.m. EDT
Sitting as a $1.16 visiting underdog, the Rockies will look for a quality outing from Aaron Cook (7-3, 4.00). Colorado (39-35, +634) has made some noise in the NL after going 19-3 in its last 22.
Cook’s ERA is high and a 1.33 WHIP could be improved upon. But a 3-0 performance with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP are could signs of improvement in the last three starts. Just don’t let a 3-1 day record fool you. Cook has been slammed for a 5.46 ERA thanks to opponents batting around the lineup for a .365 on base percentage. The average score during Cook’s 31.1 innings of work with sunup have helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 this season. But as an encouraging sign, Cook is 4-0 in his last four starts, giving up 1.5 runs per game.
Oakland (31-42, -952) has had the leg up in recent years as an 8-6 record versus Colorado indicates. But despite the Athletics drowning in interleague play this season (5-12, batting .232) their 123-90 lifetime record versus the NL ranks three full games below the leading Yankees (124-87).
A quick look at the A’s starting pitcher Vin Mazzaro (2-2, 2.56) brings up four words; good stuff, no support. The righty did slip up in his last start against San Francisco, allowing four runs in a 4-1 loss. If there’s an angle we can take to the bank it’s the ‘under’ at a perfect 5-0 in all five of Mazzaro’s starts this season.
What you have to like if you intend on backing Colorado is Oakland’s downright damaging .235 BA (.217 versus lefties) and 4.1 runs scored per game.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
