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The Independence Day slate of baseball under the sun shouldn't disappoint, as four matchups highlight the late afternoon card. The team owning the second-best record in the National League will send out its star pitcher. But, it's not the Phillies or the Mets. Instead, it's the San Francisco Giants, who will trot out reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum against the Astros.
Astros at Giants - 4:10 PM EST
Yes, we're shocked too to see the Giants playing nearly .540 baseball at this point of the season, but Bruce Bochy has received outstanding pitching from his staff. Lincecum has been nearly flawless over the last five weeks, compiling eight straight quality starts, while allowing only nine earned runs. Lincecum's strikeout total is 66 in this stretch, as the 'under' has hit in six of eight starts.
The Giants are coming off a four-game split at St. Louis, returning home after a 5-5 road trip. San Francisco has played well at home all season, winning 12 of its past 16 at AT&T Park, with just a brief slip-up in Interleague Play by getting swept by the Angels.
Journeyman Russ Ortiz has been on the wrong end of his last three starts, with Houston losing each game. Ortiz hasn't pitched poorly in this stretch, putting together quality outings in each start, as each loss has come by a run each.
The Astros have been up and down all season, but are starting to turn the corner in a wide-open NL Central. Houston took two of three at home against Detroit, before beating San Diego three of four at Petco Park.
Houston captured seven of eight meetings in this series last season, including two against Lincecum. In the second Astros victory over Lincecum in September, the Giants ace was knocked out of the game in the fifth inning by a line-drive to the knee. Lincecum's numbers as a home favorite during the day won't turn heads, as the Giants are 8-6 in his career in this role. San Francisco is 7-3 during the day this season at home against right-handed starters, and definitely has some momentum after Friday night's 13-0 drilling of Houston.
LVSC has listed the Giants as a $1.85 favorite with the total set at 7 ½.
Dodgers at Padres - 4:10 PM EST
Game two of the Manny Ramirez re-emergence comes Saturday afternoon at Petco Park, as the Dodgers and Padres meet up. Despite missing Manny for 50 games, the Dodgers still have a firm grip on the NL West race, even though the Giants and Rockies have played better over the last month. San Diego, meanwhile, is trying to weather the storm without its top two pitchers, Jake Peavy and Chris Young.
Ex-Padre southpaw Randy Wolf gets the ball for the Dodgers, going for only his fourth win of the season. Wolf has been involved in his share of no-decisions this season (11), but L.A. has won 11 of his 17 starts. Wolf started two games against the Padres earlier in the year, with both games finishing 'under' the total.
Joshua Geer has strung together three straight quality starts, despite losses in two of those outings. Geer's home ERA is not pretty (4.98), but his WHIP at Petco Park is a respectable 1.18. The former Rice Owl has seen the 'under' hit in four of six home starts, including the last two against the Astros and Mariners.
The Dodgers are 8-3 this season against the Padres, while the 'under' has cashed seven times.
Los Angeles is listed as a $1.40 road 'chalk' according to LVSC, with the total listed at 7 ½.
Mets at Phillies - 4:10 PM EST
Two struggling division rivals hook up at Citizens Bank Park, as the Mets and Phillies both try to break out of their funk. It would be tough to find a division leader at this point of the season that sits 14-22 at home, but that's the case for Charlie Manuel's club.
The ageless wonder Jamie Moyer has picked up victories in his last two starts against Tampa Bay and Toronto, but his ERA still sits at 6.05. The Mets are very familiar with Moyer, as the lefty has faced New York nine times since the start of 2008. There is no advantage whether Moyer pitches at home or on the road in this matchup, as the Phillies are 4-5 overall in his nine starts. Moyer has allowed 11 home runs at Citizens Bank Park this season, including two against the Mets back in early May.
Fernando Nieve has been a nice addition to the Mets staff, winning three of his four starts. The former Astros right-hander hasn't seen cupcake lineups either, so far facing the Brewers, Rays, Cardinals, and Yankees. Nieve compiled three quality starts before getting knocked around by Milwaukee his last outing, allowing 11 hits and three earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched.
The two teams have split the eight meetings this season, as three of Philadelphia's wins have come in extra-innings. The Phillies are 11-2 in Moyer's last 13 home starts during the day, dating back to the end of the 2006 season.
LVSC has installed the Phillies as a $1.50 home favorites with the total at 10.
Tigers at Twins - 4:10 PM EST
The AL Central division has turned into a three-horse race between the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins, separated by just three games heading into the weekend. Detroit and Minnesota continue their series from the Metrodome, following last night's 11-9, 16-inning thriller won by the Tigers. This afternoon Detroit sends out right-hander Edwin Jackson against Twins lefty Francisco Liriano.
Jackson has turned into a fantastic off-season pick-up from Tampa Bay, owning an ERA of 2.49, while going 6-4. His record would be better if the Tigers provided Jackson more than 3.8 runs a contest in his starts. However, Detroit's inability to score runs with Jackson on the mound has resulted in ten 'unders' in his 14 starts, including eight of nine on the road.
Liriano has been trying to reclaim the magic of 2006 when he looked like the second-coming of former team ace Johan Santana. But, Liriano's 12-3 mark three seasons ago seems like a memory, with the southpaw going 4-8 this season with an ERA of 5.62. Liriano did pitch in the month of June, with Minnesota winning four of his five starts (all four victories came on the road). Liriano has allowed 14 earned runs in his last three trips to the Metrodome mound, losing to the Pirates and Red Sox, while beating the Mariners.
Jackson and Liriano's daytime numbers are on different ends of the spectrum. Jackson is 2-0 with an ERA of 3.18, while the Tigers have won four of his five day outings. Liriano, meanwhile, has been a good 'fade' in the day, as Minnesota has dropped three of his four starts under the sun (even though the game is under a dome).
Minnesota is a slight home favorite at a $1.15, with the total set at 8 ½ according to LVSC.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
