For the third straight season, one spot in the postseason is undetermined after 162 games. It's deja-vu all over again in the AL Central, as the Twins go for the division title in game 163. However, the venue changes from last season, as well as the opponent, hosting the Tigers.
The Twins and White Sox were all knotted up at the end of the 2008 regular season, with the play-in game taking place on the South Side of Chicago. The Sox squeezed by the Twins, 1-0, thanks to a Jim Thome solo homer off Minnesota righty Nick Blackburn in the seventh inning. Chicago went on to lose to the eventual AL-champion Rays in four games in the ALDS.
Minnesota has been on a massive charge to catch Detroit, as the Twins have won 16 of their past 20, doing it all without clean-up hitter Justin Morneau. The offense hasn't missed a beat with their All-Star first baseman hurt, scoring six runs or more in 12 games. The Twins didn't pick up any ground in the crucial four-game set at Detroit last week, splitting the series. However, Minnesota took care of its business by sweeping Kansas City over the weekend, in what was thought to be the final home games at the Metrodome.
That has changed, at least for one day, as Minnesota goes for its 16th win in its last 22 games at the Homerdome. In fact, the Twins received this game at home after a vote by general managers in the winter to give the team with the better head-to-head record home-field advantage (Twins lost a coin flip to the White Sox last season despite owning a better head-to-head mark against Chicago).
The Twins won the season series, 11-7, including a 7-2 mark at home. Betting the total was not a solid proposition, as the 'over' went 8-7-3, but the 'under' hit in five of nine games at the Metrodome (including one push).
The Tigers come into Minneapolis stumbling, winning 11 of their last 26 games. To put it in proper perspective, Jim Leyland's club was 75-61 on September 6, after a three-game sweep of the Rays in St. Pete. That same day, the Twins fell at Cleveland, dropping Minnesota's record to 68-68, and seven games back of the Tigers in the Central. The Detroit offense has shut down, scoring two runs or less nine times in this stretch.
Detroit will put all its eggs into the basket of 21-year old Rick Porcello to get the Tigers into the postseason. Porcello (14-9, 4.04 ERA) started the season on fire, going 8-4 his first 12 decisions. However, the right-hander went 6-5 since late June, while compiling just five quality starts his last 17 trips to the hill. Don't expect a high pitch count out of Porcello, who tossed at least 100 pitches only four times in 30 starts.
One of the four outings Porcello threw over 100 pitches came his last time out, at home against Minnesota. Porcello scattered seven hits and one earned run in 6.1 innings of work last Tuesday, but the Tigers fell in extra-innings, 3-2. Detroit finished 1-3 in Porcello's four outings against Minnesota, but three of those starts were quality ones.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, they needed their top two hurlers to pitch against the White Sox over the weekend, as Edwin Jackson lost Friday, but 19-game winner Justin Verlander saved Detroit's season with a victory on Sunday.
On the flip side, the Twins send their top pitcher, Scott Baker to the mound Tuesday. Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA) started the season in opposite fashion of Porcello. The Minnesota righty went 2-6 through the first two months, allowing 39 ER in 52.2 IP (an ERA of 6.72). Since June, Baker has been electric, compiling a 13-3 mark, while giving up 57 ER in 141 IP (an ERA of 3.63).
Facing Detroit hasn't been the easiest task for Baker this season, despite the Twins splitting his four starts against the Tigers. Baker has not put together a quality start against Detroit, while allowing 15 ER in 20 IP. Baker did beat the Tigers at Comerica Park last Thursday, 8-3, in essence keeping Minnesota's season alive.
VI capper Bruce Marshall says Ron Gardenhire will likely use a pitcher by committee, in order not to overextend Baker, "I think Gardenhire goes into this game hoping to get five, maybe six innings at the most from Baker, who did pitch a solid five-plus innings last Tuesday in the first game of the doubleheader at Detroit. Gardy has a bit more depth and flexibility with his bullpen, especially with Francisco Liriano adding another portsider to the relievers mix." Marshall feels that Minnesota's bullpen depth can carry the Twins in the final innings, "Along with Ron Mahay, Jose Mijares, and (if need be) Brian Duensing, Gardy has plenty of situational lefties to use, while Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, and the closer Joe Nathan give him a lot of options from the right side out of the pen, too."
Since 1969 and the expansion of the playoff format, this will be the eighth play-in game. You already know what happened with the Twins last season against the White Sox, but many people will remember the Rockies' epic 9-8 victory in 13 innings over the Padres back in 2007. Prior to that contest, the last four play-in games were decided by at least two runs (Mets shut out the Reds, 5-0 in 1999, Cubs downed the Giants, 5-3 in 1998, Mariners destroyed the Angels, 9-1 in 1995, and the Astros beat the Dodgers, 7-1 in 1980). The first play-in game involved the famous Bucky Dent home run over the Green Monster to carry the Yankees past the Red Sox, 5-4, while lifting the Bombers to another title.
Most books have the Twins listed as a $1.60 home favorite, with the total set at 8 ½.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
