Editor’s Note: Brett Vancise will be making his debut with VegasInsider.com this pro baseball season. Check out his daily analysis and picks here. Click to win!
How to Profit from Betting Baseball
Although baseball is often overlooked in terms of a sport that can build the bankroll, over the course of the season there is no question that you can bang out a profit betting the boys of the summer. The important thing is to look at betting baseball as a long-term investment, and throughout the grind of an entire season, baseball can be an efficient and manageable way to cash tickets.
It is important to recognize and respect the fact that baseball is a marathon of 162 games where anything can happen on a nightly basis. This means that even the best teams lose close to 40 percent of their games, allowing the handicapper to capitalize on underdogs more often than other sports.
Avoiding the considerable favorites is a crucial factor here, as the St. Louis Cardinals lost close to 10 units last season despite their great overall record, simply because they were such heavy favorites on a nightly basis. Be careful betting teams posted at -165 or more, and look for value in underdogs.
Riding the wave of a hot or cold streak is also an essential rule to abide by. Sometimes it can be tempting to clash with a streak and go against the grain thinking the team is “due” to break the trend. An example is the Colorado Rockies winning streak at the end of the 2007 season, as they won 21 of 22 games, and cashed in as underdogs many of those nights riding the momentum.
Betting baseball totals is another way to produce winnings throughout the summer. Totals usually come at a reduced price, meaning that if someone finds a comfort zone playing over/unders, winning -120 or better can go a long way to handicapping success. Factors to take into account when wagering on totals are team defence, bullpen ERA, and the starting pitchers BB/K ratio, as well as team batting average.
Maybe one of the most overrated factors when handicapping baseball is the value that is placed on starting pitching. While the value of the starting rotation can dictate the outcome of a game, it is one of many factors that needs to be considered when handicapping baseball. Much of the public misconstrues the importance of starting pitching, and oddsmakers know this when setting the line.
With teams changing their rotations constantly and often going with as many as six interchangeable starters, it is better to draw statistics from the teams recent games than overvalue the starting slinger. In 2008/2009 the Houston Astros had the second best team ERA in the National League but managed to finish only two games over .500 and failed to make the post-season.
When analyzing a starting pitcher, it is better to take into consideration the dynamics of a lefty/righty match-up, and how they perform in certain situations. Overall, the starting pitcher and the bullpen make up half of the outcome of a game, and other stats are important to consider when breaking down match-ups.
With 2430 games played per season, there is no shortage of games on the board to choose from, and it is best to not dive in too hard at the start of the season. Baseball gamblers get a feel for what angle they like to take on a nightly basis, and attempt to gain an edge on the betting line. There is no doubt that one can earn a formidable profit throughout the course of an entire baseball campaign, or at least finance a bankroll for football season.
