It's always been told to bettors that seasons are marathons, not sprints. That statement is 100% true when it comes to baseball season, which encompasses 2,430 regular season games. Instead of following the campaign day-in and day-out, there is always the option of wagering on season win totals. Only four teams last season finished within one game of their projected victory total (Red Sox, White Sox, Astros, and Brewers), so most teams were decisive in their final total down the stretch.
In 2009, ten clubs were at least ten victories off from Las Vegas' win total to start the season, including five squads that had no shot to catch their respective number (Diamondbacks, Indians, Royals, Mets, and Nationals). The other five teams that obliterated their total included the Rockies, Marlins, Dodgers, Mariners, and Rangers, even though just two of them made the postseason.
Looking ahead to this season, three underachieving clubs from '09 had their numbers adjusted accordingly (D-Backs - 82 ½, Cubs - 83 ½, and Mets - 81). Six squads have at least a ten game separation from last year's win total with the largest drop being the Angels, who won 97 games in 2009 and are listed at 84 wins for the upcoming season.
There are 13 teams that own a win total lower than last year's output, thinking some of these clubs will fall back to Earth. The Angels are one of those teams, but their pals down the freeway in Los Angeles also fall into this category with the Dodgers listed at 84 ½ wins (95 last season). The World Champion Yankees caught fire over the final four months of 2009 to capture 103 victories, but the Bombers are listed at 95 ½ wins (Bet $1.30 win a $1.00 on the 'over').
We polled some of the top baseball handicappers on VI to get their opinions on the best 'overs' and 'unders' for the upcoming season and the results were spread across the board.
Bryan Leonard feels the Dodgers will fall back into the NL West pack this season following consecutive division titles. "The Dodgers don't have a great deal of depth with only three trustworthy starters in the rotation," says Leonard. In fact, the Rockies have the highest win total in the NL West with Colorado listed at 85.
On the flip side, Leonard sees the improving Marlins as a solid 'over' play in the National League. "The starting pitching in Florida is deep and their everyday lineup is solid." The Marlins finished just short of the Wild Card last season with 87 victories, but Florida's number this season is just 80 ½, compared to the number prior to the 2009 season of 76 ½.
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There are several handicappers that believe the 'over' for the Angels is the best play on the total board. Bruce Marshall is high on the Halos despite the losses of John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero, and Chone Figgins in the offseason. "Mike Scioscia's bunch should continue to run the basepaths as well as they have in recent years, especially with CF Torii Hunter and infielders Erick Aybar, Macier Izturis, and Howie Kendrick remaining as effective catalysts," says Marshall. Leonard feels that the Angels have the deepest starting staff in baseball and this team is overlooked, but knows how to win.
A team that looks to rebound this season in the AL is the Indians, who finished tied for last place in the AL Central last season. Marc Lawrence believes the Tribe will eclipse the 74 ½ win mark set by the books. "While Cleveland appears to be in a rebuilding phase, they have talented veterans in Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jhonny Peralta sprinkled in amidst promising young talent (Matt LaPorta). If former All-Stars Travis Hafner and Jake Westbrook rebound from injuries, they could surprise," Lawrence says.
On the south side of Ohio, Brian Edwards likes the Reds to fall short of the 79 ½ win plateau. "Since 2005, Cincinnati's win totals have gone like this: 73, 80, 72, 74 and 78. And the Reds only win that many games because the NL Central has been so down. When your rotation has Bronson Arroyo as the No. 2 guy, it doesn't bode well for your staff," Edwards comments.
The Brewers fell short of the postseason in 2009, but Edwards feels a bounce back season is in order for Milwaukee. "This club has won 80 or more games in four of the last five seasons. The rotation is my biggest concern, but I love the lineup with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in the 3-4 spots. I also think the bullpen is going to be one of the best in the NL Central," says Edwards. The Brew Crew's win total is set at 80 ½.
Scott Pritchard likes Atlanta to finish 'over' 85 ½ wins in Bobby Cox's final season at the helm of the Braves. Pritchard is bullish on a strong rotation led by Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, and Tommy Hanson, while the Billy Wagner acquisition will bolster the bullpen. Meanwhile, Pritchard doesn't see Arizona rebounding from last season's 70-92 disaster. "The D-Backs are a very bad defensive team committing 124 errors last season and I'm not sold on their pitching staff," says Pritchard.
I am under the impression that the Bay Area teams will stay true to what they were last season. The Giants did overachieve last season, but when they have one of the best starting duos in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, it's tough to think that victories will be at a premium. San Francisco did bolster its mediocre lineup with the signings off Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa, and play 36 games against Arizona and San Diego in the NL West.
Oakland did improve its staff with the signing of Ben Sheets and the return of Justin Duchscherer, but the A's offense is still average. The win total for Oakland sits at 79, as the A's have finished below .500 for each of the last three seasons, so there's no reason to think they will turn it around with little improvement to the lineup.
Below is each handicapper's best 'over' and 'under' selections for each league as well as predicted World Series Champions.
