Atlanta took a 3-2 series lead by virtue of Wednesday’s 106-91 win over Miami as a six-point home favorite. Now the Hawks are poised to win a playoff series for the first time since 1999. Can they get it done Friday night in Game 6 at AmericanAirlines Arena in South Florida?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Miami (45-42 straight up, 42-43-2 against the spread) as a six-point favorite with a total of 182 ½. As of early this morning, most books had adjusted the Heat to five with the total resting at 182. Bettors can back the Hawks to win outright for a plus-180 payout (risk $100 to win $180).
After struggling through the first four games of this series, Joe Johnson finally played like a two-time All-Star in Game 5. Johnson produced 25 points, six rebounds and six assists compared to just two turnovers. The 25-point effort bested his previous high for the series by nine points.
Josh Smith had a stat-stuffing night at the office, scoring 20 points to go with eight rebounds, four assists, two steals and two blocked shots. However, he ruffled feathers and looked like a clown by trying to dunk after wrapping the ball through his legs while airborne. He missed the highlight-reel attempt when the Hawks were up by 20-plus points with more than four minutes left in the final stanza.
Like every game in this series, the winner prevailed by a double-digit margin. Atlanta (50-37 SU, 46-40-2 ATS) took over early and often thanks to the hot shooting of Mike Bibby, the veteran point guard who has been extremely solid during this first-round showdown. Bibby dropped 17 points on Miami in Game 5.
Ronald “Flip” Murray, who has been instant offense off the bench for Mike Woodson’s team all year long, erupted for 23 points. Murray made 9-of-15 shots from the field and also had five rebounds and three assists. His minutes will only increase if the Hawks are missing two starters in Game 6.
Al Horford suffered a sprained ankle in the second quarter of Game 5. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Horford’s ankle was “better than expected” Thursday. He is listed as a game-time decision. Horford told the AJC, “It’s better. I think I’ll be ready to go Sunday either way.”
Horford averaged 11.5 points and 9.3 rebounds per game during the regular season. In this series, he was averaging 9.0 PPG and 6.8 RPG. One reason for the dip in production has been a reduction in minutes, once for foul trouble and again when he left Game 5 injured. Horford missed 14 regular-season games, 13 due to injury and one due to a migraine. Atlanta went 7-7 both SU and ATS without Horford.
Marvin Williams (sprained wrist) has missed three straight games and is considered “doubtful” for the rest of the series. The Hawks are optimistic that Williams could return in a potential second-round series against Cleveland.
If Horford can’t play, Woodson indicated to the AJC that Solomon Jones would get the starting nod, apparently wanting to continue bringing Zaza Pachulia’s toughness off the bench. Jones had two points, five boards, one assist and one steal while playing a series-high 19 minutes Wednesday. He also mixed it up with Dwayne Wade in an incident that prompted plenty of pushing and shoving before order was restored.
That occurrence, coupled with Smith’s theatrics, will have the Heat ready to get physical back at home. Wade, who was called for a flagrant foul on Mo Evans, didn't like the antics of Atlanta reserve guard Mario West at the end of the second quarter. West pumped his fists and screamed after forcing Wade into a difficult buzzer-beating attempt. At practice on Thursday, Wade told the Associated Press, "Celebration after one stop, that's funny."
The Heat have a 29-14 SU record and a 21-21-1 ATS ledger at home. Meanwhile, the Hawks are 17-26 SU and 22-21 ATS on the road.
Wade finished with 29 points in Game 5, while Michael Beasley had 20 from off the bench.
These teams have split four meetings in Miami this year. The Heat spanked the Hawks 107-78 in Game 3, but Atlanta bounced back with an 81-71 triumph in Game 4.
The ‘under’ is 45-40-2 overall for the Hawks, 21-20-2 in their road assignments. Meanwhile, Miami has watched the ‘over’ go 47-39-1 overall, 24-18-1 in its home games.
Tip-off is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The ‘under’ is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between Miami and Atlanta.
--Bibby has a 22/12 assists-to-turnover ratio to date in five games against the Heat.
--When asked about the physical play of the series, Woodson told the Associated Press, “I don't want our guys backing down by any means. I don't think we've been out there trying to hurt anyone.”
--If I can find odds for Game 7 of the Bulls and Celtics to go to overtime, I think I want some of that action. It would only be fitting, right?
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
