By now you probably have watched the Game 2 replay of Orlando’s Courtney Lee missed layup attempt numerous times. The bucket would’ve given the Magic a 90-88 victory and knot the NBA Finals at 1-1. Instead, the second installment went an extra five minutes and the Lakers captured a 101-96 decision in a game they tried to give away in every aspect.
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Courtney Lee's last-second attempt in Game 2 came up empty against the Lakers.
(AP Images) |
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While Lee’s potential game-winning bucket on television looked like an easy bunny, other angles showed that it was a tough shot, especially with the Lakers’ Pau Gasol defending the rim. Some pundits believe that Gasol goaltended on the play, sticking his hand through the rim. According to the NBA rules, a goaltending call cannot be made unless contacting the rim has a clear effect on the shot.
VegasInsider.com handicapper and host of the VI Power Hours Brian Edwards pointed out in his Game 2 Rewind that Lee’s first game-winning shot with 9.1 ticks left was an easier look and the rookie out of Western Kentucky should take more heat for that miss.
Regardless of Lee’s misses, the Magic still had the extra session to show they belonged on this stage and unfortunately they succumbed to Purple and Gold. The Lakers outscored the Magic 13-8, and nine of the points came from the free throw line. Gasol led the charge in overtime, scoring seven of his 24 points.
Kobe Bryant finished with 29 points and eight assists and Lamar Odom added 19 big points off the bench for the Lakers. Orlando’s Rashard Lewis led all scorers with 34 points, while Hedo Turkoglu added 22 points and Dwight Howard filled the stat sheet with 17 points and 16 rebounds.
Gamblers now turn their attention to Game 3 on Tuesday from Away Arena, where Orlando has posted a solid 7-2 straight up and 6-3 against the spread record in the playoffs. On the year, the Magic own a 39-11 SU and 29-21 ATS record, winning by an average of 10 points per game (101-91).
| Apr 19 - Game 1 |
Philadelphia 76ers |
-9.5 (191) |
Lost 98-100 |
Loss/Over |
| Apr 22 - Game 2 |
Philadelphia 76ers |
-10.5 (193) |
Won 96-87 |
Loss/Under |
| Apr 28 - Game 5 |
Philadelphia 76ers |
-8.5 (188) |
Won 91-78 |
Win/Under |
| May 8 - Game 3 |
Boston Celtics |
-4.5 (189) |
Won 117-96 |
Win/Over |
| May 10 - Game 4 |
Boston Celtics |
-5 (195) |
Lost 94-95 |
Loss/Under |
| May 14 - Game 6 |
Boston Celtics |
-6.5 (190) |
Won 83-75 |
Win/Under |
| May 24 - Game 3 |
Cleveland Cavaliers |
-1.5 (189) |
Won 99-89 |
Win/Under |
| May 26 - Game 4 |
Cleveland Cavaliers |
1.5 (188) |
Won 116-114 |
Win/Over |
| May 30 - Game 6 |
Cleveland Cavaliers |
-2.5 (193) |
Won 103-90 |
Win/Under |
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The two losses both came on buzzer beaters, courtesy of Philadelphia’s Andre Iguodala and Boston’s Big Baby Davis.
Los Angeles posted a league-best 29-12 SU (23-18 ATS) road record during the regular season but haven’t been lights out during the postseason.
| Apr 23 - Game 3 |
@ Utah Jazz |
-2.5 (214) |
Lost 86-88 |
Loss/Under |
| Apr 25 - Game 4 |
@ Utah Jazz |
-5.5 (209) |
Won 108-94 |
Win/Under |
| May 8 - Game 3 |
@ Houston Rockets |
-2 (193) |
Won 108-94 |
Win/Over |
| May 10 - Game 4 |
@ Houston Rockets |
-12 (197) |
Lost 87-99 |
Loss/Under |
| May 14 - Game 6 |
@ Houston Rockets |
-9.5 (197) |
Lost 80-95 |
Loss/Under |
| May 23 - Game 3 |
@ Denver Nuggets |
3.5 (213) |
Won 103-97 |
Win/Under |
| May 25 - Game 4 |
@ Denver Nuggets |
+4.5 (209) |
Lost 101-120 |
Loss/Over |
| May 29 - Game 6 |
@ Denver Nuggets |
+5 (209) |
Won 119-92 |
Win/Over |
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In the Lakers’ four losses outside of Staples Center, the team has been clubbed in three of the setbacks and lost the other on a jumper by Utah’s Deron Williams. With that being said, if you fancy the Lakers, the right wager might be on the money-line (+170) rather than the point-spread.
It appears that the oddsmakers have tossed out the first two games of the best-of-seven series after opening Orlando as a four-point home favorite for Game 3.
Paul Bovi, the top percentage NBA handicapper on VegasInsider.com believes the number is fair, considering the play of the Magic. He said, “Orlando's failure in Game 1 was more the case of an abysmal shooting performance rather than Laker domination. The Magic managed to shoot just under 30 percentage from the field in a game they led 33-28 midway through the 2nd period before disintegrating.”
“Game 2 saw the Magic guards combine on 5-of-23 from the field while amassing 20 turnovers as a team. The biggest issue with the Magic has to be their mindset, and in particular point guard Rafer Alston, who has been a key contributor in the playoffs, but has been woeful on combined 3 of 17 shooting. The coach (Stan Van Gundy) has lost confidence in the nine-year pro as he has repeatedly tinkered with the lineup throughout, opting to go without a point guard in the latter stages of Game 2, and with the game on the line.”
Van Gundy not only surprised Bovi but a lot of folks with his rotation. In Game 2, J.J. Redick played 27 minutes, more than Alston and Jameer Nelson. The former Duke standout was a dreadful 2-of-9 from the field, including 1-of-6 from 3-point land, which is his supposed specialty.
It appears the Nelson experiment hasn’t worked for the Magic and Van Gundy, who likes numbers, should look at the facts. Against the Cavaliers, Orlando was 4-0 when Alston averaged double digits and 0-2 when he didn’t. And that includes a 19 PPG average in the team’s three wins at home versus Cleveland too.
Another solid trend helping Orlando and perhaps bettors is the club’s ability to rebound after back-to-back losses. The Magic have only lost three games once all season, a skid that happened in late April and to its defense, the team was missing Howard and two other starters in the third straight setback.
Bovi added, “In spite of the subpar play, the Magic were an alley oop away from taking control of the series. If the Magic settle down and play up to their potential they should take two of three at home over a Lakers team that is vulnerable away from Staples as the Jazz, Nuggets and certainly the Rockets have proven.”
Even though Game 2 had bonus time, it’s fair to say that the majority of the minutes have been unwatchable at least from an offensive standpoint. Total players have watched the ‘under’ go 2-0 through the first two games and the closing numbers haven’t been threatened.
Bovi, who is an expert (64%) in ‘over/under’ bets, commented on the total drop. He said, “At 199, and down from 206.5 in Game 1, the total has seen a sharp adjustment due to the depressed scoring in the first two games. If you take away the overtime, the 175 and 176 points scored in regulation would make a strong case for the under, though it could easily be argued that the Magic will perform better at home from an offensive standpoint, especially given L.A.'s defensive lapses on the road, which could send the game over the soft number.”
Only three teams have ever rallied back from a 0-2 deficit to win the NBA Finals. In 1969, the Boston Celtics defeated the Lakers in seven games. Portland bounced back from a 0-2 hole to Philadelphia in 1977 to win four straight games behind Bill Walton. And just recently, the Miami Heat also captured four consecutive victories in the 2006 NBA Finals against the Dallas Mavericks.
Gamblers believing Orlando can hold serve at home and eventually become the fourth team to pull off the feat can back the club on an adjusted series price of plus-600 (Bet $100 to win $600).
Game 3 is slated to tip off at 9:05 p.m. EDT, with ABC providing national coverage.
After tonight’s showdown in the Magic Kingdom, the two teams will meet in Game 4 on Thursday.
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
