Editor's note: Brian Edwards is on a 10-3 run (77%, +670!) with his NBA guaranteed picks, so don't miss out on tonight's pay-if-it-wins-only selection!
The Cleveland Cavaliers will be staring elimination in the face tonight when they play host to Orlando in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals at Quicken Loans Arena. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Mike Brown’s team as an eight-point favorite with a total of 191.
As of early this afternoon, most sports books had Cleveland (75-19 straight up, 57-36-1 against the spread) as a 7 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 190 1/2. Bettors can back the Magic to win outright for a plus-300 return (risk $100 to win $300).
Stan Van Gundy’s squad took a 3-1 series lead thanks to Tuesday’s 116-114 overtime win as a one-point home underdog. Dwight Howard took over in the extra session, scoring 10 of his 27 points. The fifth-year center also pulled down 14 rebounds to go with four assists and three blocked shots.
Nevertheless, the Cavs had a chance to win at the buzzer but unlike in Game 2, LeBron James’ 3-pointer at the horn was off the mark. James put forth a valiant effort in defeat, finishing with 44 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists. He forced OT by draining a pair of free throws with 0.5 seconds remaining in regulation.
On the ensuing possession, the Magic attempted a lob to Howard who was well defended by Anderson Varejao. The home crowd wanted a whistle on Varejao, but I thought it was an excellent no-call.
Orlando (70-29 SU, 59-39-1 ATS) has now covered the number in nine consecutive head-to-head meetings against the Cavs. Howard and Co. have also taken the cash in six straight games dating back to the Boston series.
Cleveland continues to have all sorts of problems defending Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Lewis had 17 points in Game 4, while Turkoglu produced 15 points, eight assists and seven boards.
Rafer Alston erupted for 26 points Tuesday, knocking down 6-of-12 attempts from 3-point land. As a team, the Magic hit 17 treys on 44 shots from beyond the arc (44.7%).
Mickael Pietrus was once again Orlando’s unsung hero in Game 4. He had 17 points and made James work for everything. In fact, Pietrus should get much of the credit for forcing James into eight turnovers, several of which came in the final stanza and OT.
Mo Williams ‘guaranteed’ a Cavs’ victory, but he was just 5-for-15 from the floor. Williams had 18 points and just two assists. Delonte West was extremely steady in Game 4, tallying 17 points and seven assists without committing a turnover.
Mike Brown’s team returns home where it has enjoyed a ton of success this year. The Cavs are 44-3 SU and 32-15 ATS at "The Q." As for the Magic, it has compiled a 32-18 SU record and a 31-18-1 spread mark on the road.
The ‘under’ is 52-41-1 overall for the Cavs, 26-20-1 in their home games. The ‘under’ is 56-43 overall for the Magic, 25-25 in its road assignments. However, the ‘over’ has hit at a 3-1 clip in this series and is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these clubs.
Tip-off on TNT is scheduled for 8:35 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--For gamblers that wagered on Orlando to win the East finals in five games at BoDog, a ticket at 40/1 odds could be cashed if the Magic can prevail in Game 5.
--Dating back to 1947, NBA teams with a 3-1 series lead have prevailed 182 times in 190 chances.
--It remains to be seen what Cleveland will do in the rest of this series. However, if I’m a Cavs’ fan, I like the tone of my leader in the post-game presser after Game 4. James had a look of utter determination and zero fear. He said, "I know I am looking forward to the challenge. I'll be ready." There’s no doubt that with James, Cleveland has the potential to become the ninth team to rally from a 3-1 series deficit.
--The Lakers took a 3-2 series advantage in the West finals by capturing a 103-94 victory over Denver in Wednesday's Game 5. They covered the spread as six-point favorites, while the 197 combined points dipped 'under' the 209 1/2-point total.
--LVSC opened Denver as a five-point home favorite for Friday's Game 6 at Pepsi Center. The total was 207 1/2 on the send-out.
--Denver was in control of Game 5 until missing 11 straight shots at one point in the second half, when it shot just 29 percent from the field. But a 6-0 run pulled the Nuggets to within four at 91-87 with 4:29 left. That's when the game turned after a terrific defensive possession for Denver ended on a terrible call. Pau Gasol clearly put his head down and buried his elbow into Nene, who had beaten Gasol to the spot and took a charge that was inexplicably called a block. It was Nene's sixth foul and resulted in a pair of free throws from Gasol.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
