Fact or Fiction
January 1, 2013
By Mike Rose
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The calendar year is now said and done with, and that means we’re right around the halfway point of the NBA season. Check out some of the hot topic items as we head into 2013 for NBA betting fans, as we decipher which are fact and which are fiction.
The Bulls' Lack of Offense Without D-Rose: The Chicago Bulls have a major problem right now. They just aren't scoring points. They rank 27th in the league, averaging 92.3 points per game, and they have averaged just 85.0 points per game in their last four. Not surprisingly, they're 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread in those games. Things aren't going to be getting any better for the Bulls without G Derrick Rose in the fold, and that might still be two or more months away.
Utah's Home Record: The Utah Jazz won nine of their first 10 home games this year, and though they check in 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in their L/3 games held at Energy Solutions Arena, they are still 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS on the season as a host. There is going to be some remarkable value in the Jazz for the foreseeable future, especially with eight teams coming from no further West than Dallas to the Beehive State this month.
The Bobcats' 18-Game Losing Streak: Sure, the Charlotte Bobcats just broke their 18-game losing streak on New Year's Eve against the Bulls, but that doesn't change what we already know about this team. There just isn't all that much that has changed from last year's team to this year's club, and though the team got off to a 7-5 start to the year, we know better. This 18-game losing streak in which the team went 5-13 ATS wasn't a farce. This is what we can come to expect for the rest of the year out of the Cats.
The Clippers' 17-Game Winning Streak: The Los Angeles Clippers are a great team, and they are clearly the better of the two teams in Tinseltown as we see it. But is this club really good enough to be 20-11 ATS already this year? There are some tremendously tough games coming up, including two with the Golden State Warriors, one with the Los Angeles Lakers, and one with the Denver Nuggets on the road. LA laid 10 1/2 and barely covered against Utah on Dec. 30, but if that's the type of number that this team is asked to give every night, the point-spread defeats are sure to come.
Steve Nash Will Fix the Lakers: More from La La Land… The Los Angeles Lakers have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games since point guard Steve Nash returned from a leg injury. The team has averaged 109 PPG in that stretch as well. It just doesn't make sense to us, though. Nash has watched his numbers decline quite a bit over the course of the last three years, and we think that the Lakers would have been better off keeping G Ramon Sessions from the end of last year. If you think that Nash is going to fix this mess, you're crazy!
Cleveland's Home ATS Record: The Cleveland Cavaliers have the worst ATS mark at home this year at just 3-10 through 13 games, but we don't think that is going to continue. A lot of these games have come in tough spots where momentum has taken over for the oddsmakers. For example, Cleveland had just won road games around Christmas against the Milwaukee Bucks and Washington Wizards. As a result, they returned home and were dogged by just five points in spite of the fact that Atlanta was out for revenge after losing 113-111 to it in November. Predictably, the Hawks won by eight, right about where the line probably should have been. The Cavs will get luckier as the season goes on, and we think that they'll be “Money-Makers” at home the remainder of their 2013 campaign.
9-2 L11 Streak, 5-1 L6 G-Plays
3-0 L3, 30-15 Run, 4-1 G-Plays
11-3 Playoffs, 19-4 L23 Streak
+2,304 NBA Net Profits TY
5-0 L5 Guarantees, 5-1 L6 Totals
7-1 L8 Totals, 11-4 L15 Picks
22-8 L30 Guaranteed Plays
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40-21 L61 Picks, 34-17 L51 GPlays
19-8 L27 G-Plays, 27-13 L40 Picks
7-3 L10 Postseason Guarantees
12-6 L18 Over/Under Plays
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