NBA Finals Betting Angles
June 12, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
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With the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs set to meet in the 2013 NBA Finals, let’s look at four solid Championship Round betting theories outlined below from our powerful database, along with some tantalizing team trends and an incredible stat.
All results are ATS since 1991 unless noted otherwise.
Home On The Road
Life may be cozy at home, but the money can be found on the road.
Our database finds visiting teams are moneymakers in the championship round, cashing 55% of the time, going 65-54-3 ATS.
Better yet, put them in a game with the Over/Under total is 181 or higher and they improve to a 61% winning proposition, going 54-34-1 ATS.
Put these same teams on the road in games with a total of 181 or more off a SU and ATS loss and they ratchet all the way up to 22-8 ATS, or a 73% ATS spread beater.
Return To Earth
Defense rules in the championship round.
That’s confirmed by the fact that teams who score less than 90 points in a game in this round are just 31-74 SU and 33-70-2 ATS.
When teams manage to score an inordinate amount of points in any one game, they return to the earth faster than a free-falling spaceship.
That’s validated by the fact that teams who score 110 or more points in a championship round showdown are just 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS in their next contest.
Dress these same teams up as favorites after igniting the scoreboard and they short-circuit, going 1-8 ATS.
Speaking of returning to earth, teams in this round that had the rug pulled out from underneath them the previous game (lost straight up as a favorite) tend to right them selves in a hurry.
That’s confirmed by a rock-solid 22-12 SU and 18-14-2 ATS mark in games after being upset, including 12-4 ATS when they take to the road off the applecart loss.
Best of all, when road teams where upset as a favorite and managed to stay within 20 or more points to the spread, they are 11-1 ATS in these payback affairs.
While the famed ‘Zig-Zag’ theory has unraveled the last 10 years in the playoffs, it still works in this round… if you work it right.
To do so you want to play on a ‘dog off one loss exact in the championship round, as they are 25-17 ATS.
Teams taking 5.5 or more points in this role increase to 13-5 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of .647 or more.
Championship Round Team Trends
Both teams own NBA Championship Round pedigree.
In this round, Miami is…
-- 10-7 SU and 8-8-1 ATS since 2006.
-- 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 189 or more points
-- 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of less than 189 points.
-- 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in games in which they fail to score 88 points.
-- 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS off a win of more than 6 points.
-- 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS versus an opponent off a win.
In this round, San Antonio is…
-- 16-6 SU and 15-7 ATS since 1999, most recently defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers (and LeBron James) in a four-game sweep in 2007.
-- 8-0 SU and ATS in games in which they score 88 or more points.
-- 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more points.
-- 4-0 SU and ATS in Game One (all as a host).
-- 9-1 SU and ATS versus an opponent off a win.
-- 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS with two or more days of rest.
San Antonio is 16-2 SU in all games when playing with 5 or more days of rest since 2004.
There you have it. Four time tested Championship Round theories, terrific team trends and an eye-opening stat. Play accordingly and, like the eventual champions, you too shall rule.