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Let’s talk about zigzags.
No, that’s not some ski slope maneuver. Nor is it someone who says one thing and then does another. Sports bettors may be familiar with zigzagging when it comes to handicapping the NBA playoffs.
One rule many bettors keep in mind during the playoffs is that teams that lose a game and play poorly may look very different the next game. That is, they can get that bad game out of their system, make adjustments, and come back playing very well the next game. The team that plays that poor game is often getting points the next game, too, which is another plus. Normally this happens with visiting teams playing Game 1 on the road, for instance, and they lose, but could zigzag the next game and get the money, or maybe even a straight up win.
Most Game 1 visiting teams are underdogs, which was the case in the first round of this year’s NBA playoffs. In fact, almost all the visitors were big dogs in Game 1. Remember that there’s more pressure on the home team to give a strong performance in the first game as they’ve worked hard all season to get that home court advantage, and they don’t want to blow it in the first game. That doesn’t just go for the first round of the playoffs, but all the rounds. And the visiting team is not thinking about getting a sweep in the first two games, but simply salvaging a split, which is a big edge for the visitors and a downer for the home team.
What’s interesting about this year’s playoffs is that the zigzag theory hasn’t come into play much, with the exception of the Bucks, who stole Game 2 at Detroit as a big dog. One thing I look for when assessing whether to utilize the zigzag theory is: Does the dog play good defense? This partly explains why the home favorites did so well recently. Most of the visiting teams were poor defensively, and some were just plain awful, like the Mavericks, Celtics, Nuggets and Knicks. The Mavs did manage to get the cover in Game 2 against Sacramento, though just barely.
Strong defensive teams have a big edge in the postseason. Teams that rely on a breakneck offensive pace to try and defeat opponents (Dallas, Milwaukee, Denver) are at a disadvantage for a couple of reasons. First, there are some nights when the outside shooting isn’t there, even for great offensive teams. Just look at Game 2 of the Kings/Mavericks series, where both teams shot under 38%. It really wasn’t great defense but either side, it was simply a lot of open outside shots didn’t go down. And that happens. When that happens, poor defensive teams don’t have anything to fall back on to try and keep them in the game. This is what happened to the Celtics, Knicks and Nuggets in the first two games.
Secondly, you win championships in all sports with defense, not offense. When Shaq and Kobe first came up with the Lakers, they continually had sensational – almost unstoppable – offensive teams, but they kept flaming out in the playoffs. The reason was that they were a poor defensive team under coaches Del Harris and Kurt Rambis. It wasn’t until Phil Jackson arrived to teach the value of defense that the Lakers took off, winning three straight titles.
It was no coincidence that two of the top three defensive teams in the NBA met in the Finals last season (the Spurs and Nets), while strong offensive teams like the Kings, Lakers, Mavericks went out early. Who won college football’s national championship? Oklahoma’s great offense got shut down by LSU’s powerful defense. The Patriots have won two of the last three Super Bowls with defense leading the way, even shutting down the talented Rams’ offense three years ago. And who can forget Tampa Bay’s No. 1 defense smacking the No. 1 Raiders’ offense just over a year ago? The Spurs have won two NBA titles the last five years with defense as the focal point of the team, not offense.
The zigzag theory hasn’t played out well in the first round of the playoffs, but don’t discard it yet, either. With stronger defensive teams likely advancing, it’s something to keep an eye on in the next few rounds.
