Editor's note: Bryan Leonard continues to cash winners in the pro basketball playoffs. Get a step ahead of the man by cashing in daily with his winners!
Sports bettors know that defense wins championships. If it were the other way around, the dynamic offenses of the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings would have won a few NBA titles in recent years. Instead, those teams have yet to make it to the Finals, while teams that have gotten down and dirty defensively – the Spurs, Lakers, Nets, Jeff Van Gundy’s Knicks, Larry Bird’s Pacers – are the ones who’ve made it to the Big Show.
This certainly can help sports bettors who like to play games under the total, as this is the time of year when defense and lower scoring games shine in the NBA. However, another factor that also helps unders that is not talked about as much is free throws. That is, during the playoffs teams can battle so strong defensively that it tires them down so much that it’s not as easy to make freebies from the charity stripe. Teams are likely more tired in the fourth quarter during the playoffs than during the regular season because the games mean so much more. And as the playoffs go along, the competition becomes more evenly matched, which can add to tired legs influencing free throw shooting.
Notice that in the first round of the playoffs, almost all the playoff teams shot worse from the free throw line than they did during the regular season. The Dallas Mavericks led the NBA in free throw shooting (79.7%) but dropped to 77.1 percent in the postseason. Even a small percentage drop can make a difference, as we’re talking about games where one or two points can be the difference between a winning ticket or a losing one.
In Game 4 at home against the Kings, the NBA’s leading free throw team went 20-of-33 from the line (60%). It was a defensive dogfight, with the Kings winning 94-92, a game that sailed under the total by 24 points. Yes, the defense helped the under, but so did the bad free throw shooting.
And there are many more extreme examples. Indiana shot 76 percent during the season, but is at 72.5 percent so far; Minnesota was just under 78 percent on the season (5th best in the NBA) yet they are at 72.5 percent in the playoffs, the New York Knicks were second in the league during the season from the charity stripe at 79.5 percent, but dropped to 72.3 percent in their playoff loss to the Nets.
Even the worst NBA free throw shooting teams are getting worse: The Lakers were second to last during the season (69%) but are at 63 percent so far, while the Spurs (68%) have also been clanking more freebies at 66 percent in the playoffs. That may only be a few more free throws missed per game, but as I mentioned, the difference of one or two points can be the difference between a cover or a losing ticket. And as someone who’s been in sports betting business for almost twenty years, believe me, every little edge helps!
