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Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success. One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to our NFL ratings that are best when higher. We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points.

Performance Ratings (As of 12/26/13)
Category Offense Defense Total Wins SOS
Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank Total Rank Current Rank
Indiana 57 15 27 2 84 1 23 2 0.493 18
Minnesota 40 3 44 4 84 1 13 15 0.526 3
Oklahoma City 49 8 47 7 96 3 23 2 0.516 10
San Antonio 71 18 25 1 96 3 23 2 0.517 9
Charlotte 64 17 33 3 97 5 14 12 0.464 30
Portland 30 1 68 19 98 6 24 1 0.502 15
LA Clippers 39 2 60 12 99 7 20 6 0.512 12
Toronto 48 6 54 10 102 8 11 21 0.520 6
Houston 40 3 67 18 107 9 20 6 0.514 11
Detroit 49 8 63 15 112 10 14 12 0.501 16
Miami 55 11 60 12 115 11 22 5 0.475 26
Atlanta 71 18 45 5 116 12 16 10 0.478 23
Denver 48 6 68 19 116 12 14 12 0.508 13
Sacramento 50 10 66 17 116 12 8 26 0.530 2
Chicago 72 21 47 7 119 15 11 21 0.481 22
Washington 73 22 46 6 119 15 12 17 0.469 28
New Orleans 41 5 80 26 121 17 12 17 0.496 17
Memphis 58 16 65 16 123 18 12 17 0.518 8
Golden State 74 23 52 9 126 19 17 8 0.523 5
Dallas 56 13 81 27 137 20 16 10 0.508 13
Phoenix 56 13 81 27 137 20 17 8 0.520 6
Cleveland 78 25 61 14 139 22 10 23 0.476 25
Orlando 85 28 56 11 141 23 8 26 0.483 20
Brooklyn 55 11 89 29 144 24 9 24 0.482 21
New York 74 23 70 22 144 24 9 24 0.484 19
Boston 79 26 70 22 149 26 12 17 0.474 27
LA Lakers 83 27 76 24 159 27 13 15 0.526 3
Philadelphia 91 30 68 19 159 27 8 26 0.477 24
Milwaukee 86 29 76 24 162 29 6 30 0.468 29
Utah 71 18 103 30 174 30 8 26 0.539 1


Biggest movers over last 7 days as measured by Overall Performance Ranking:
Miami +5, San Antoni +4, Cleveland +4, Detroit +3, New Orleans (6), Toronto (4)

Bullish: Minnesota, Toronto, and Charlotte for 2nd consecutive week

Bearish: Phoenix for 2nd consecutive week

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:

Power Ratings (As of 12/26/13)
Team Home Road
Indiana 117.5 113.0
Minnesota 116.0 113.0
Oklahoma City 115.9 111.4
San Antonio 114.9 111.4
Charlotte 113.3 111.3
Portland 115.1 111.1
LA Clippers 115.0 111.0
Toronto 112.6 110.6
Houston 113.4 109.9
Detroit 111.3 109.3
Miami 112.9 108.9
Atlanta 112.2 108.7
Denver 111.2 108.7
Sacramento 110.7 108.7
Chicago 110.8 108.3
Washington 110.8 108.3
New Orleans 110.6 108.1
Memphis 109.8 107.8
Golden State 110.9 107.4
Dallas 109.4 105.9
Phoenix 109.4 105.9
Cleveland 108.2 105.7
Orlando 107.4 105.4
Brooklyn 107.0 105.0
New York 107.0 105.0
Boston 106.3 104.3
LA Lakers 105.5 103.0
Philadelphia 105.0 103.0
Milwaukee 104.6 102.6
Utah 103.0 101.0


These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups.

Using Friday's 12/27 matchup between the Kings and Heat:
Miami (-7.5) at Sacramento: My power ratings suggest this # should be about SAC -2 so we have another opportunity to fade one of the best teams in the NBA as a “bigger than they should be” road favorite. The Kings check in right behind the Heat in performance to date, but their performance has come against the 2nd toughest schedule in the NBA, while the Heat have cruised playing one of the easiest schedules thanks to residing in the Eastern Conference. The Kings have definite value tonight as another barking home dog.

Win Projection (As of 12/26/13)
Category SU Wins ATS Wins Overall
Team Home Road Home Road Projected Wins Rank
Indiana 23 2 20 1 60.21 2
Minnesota 13 15 15 11 46.53 12
Oklahoma City 23 2 16 8 54.53 5
San Antonio 23 2 16 8 57.98 3
Charlotte 14 12 17 5 41.06 18
Portland 24 1 18 4 49.25 6
LA Clippers 20 6 19 3 54.73 4
Toronto 11 21 12 20 43.97 14
Houston 20 6 17 5 49.04 7
Detroit 14 12 14 15 48.35 9
Miami 22 5 13 16 61.92 1
Atlanta 16 10 17 5 43.55 15
Denver 14 12 12 20 42.57 16
Sacramento 8 26 9 29 31.56 23
Chicago 11 21 10 27 32.70 22
Washington 12 17 15 11 40.39 19
New Orleans 12 17 11 22 45.66 13
Memphis 12 17 9 29 37.32 20
Golden State 17 8 13 16 48.30 10
Dallas 16 10 15 11 47.44 11
Phoenix 17 8 20 1 48.94 8
Cleveland 10 23 11 22 29.58 25
Orlando 8 26 13 16 30.11 24
Brooklyn 9 24 11 22 25.33 26
New York 9 24 10 27 42.47 17
Boston 12 17 15 11 34.83 21
LA Lakers 13 15 16 8 25.10 27
Philadelphia 8 26 11 22 18.40 29
Milwaukee 6 30 11 22 19.73 28
Utah 8 26 13 16 16.76 30


This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular season. Based on these projections as of 12/26 the playoffs would set up like this:

Western Conference
1) San Antonio 58-24
2) LA Clippers 55-27
3) Oklahoma City 55-27
4) Portland 49-33
5) Houston 49-33
6) Phoenix 49-33
7) Golden State 48-34
8) Dallas 47-35

Eastern Conference
1) Miami 62-20
2) Indiana 60-22
3) Detroit 48-34
4) Toronto 44-38
5) Atlanta 44-38
6) New York 42-40
7) Charlotte 41-41
8) Washington 40-42


  
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