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Power Ratings - (1/2/14)

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Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success. One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to our NFL ratings that are best when higher. We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points.

Performance Ratings (As of 1/2/14)
Category Offense Defense Total Wins SOS
Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank Total Rank Current Rank
Minnesota 38 3 45 8 83 1 16 12 0.513 9
Indiana 63 16 25 1 88 2 25 2 0.487 20
Toronto 46 6 44 6 90 3 15 13 0.514 8
LA Clippers 40 4 51 10 91 4 22 6 0.511 12
Portland 30 1 67 19 97 5 26 1 0.511 12
San Antonio 66 17 32 2 98 6 25 2 0.509 14
Oklahoma City 52 9 49 9 101 7 25 2 0.520 5
Houston 41 5 66 17 107 8 21 7 0.519 6
Atlanta 66 17 44 6 110 9 18 11 0.468 29
Charlotte 67 19 43 5 110 9 14 14 0.483 23
Chicago 73 22 42 4 115 11 13 20 0.481 24
Golden State 75 23 41 3 116 12 21 7 0.521 4
Memphis 53 11 66 17 119 13 14 14 0.522 3
Miami 57 13 64 15 121 14 24 5 0.484 22
New Orleans 37 2 85 28 122 15 14 14 0.508 15
Detroit 58 15 65 16 123 16 14 14 0.491 18
Denver 51 8 75 24 126 17 14 14 0.512 10
Phoenix 57 13 70 20 127 18 19 9 0.518 7
Sacramento 48 7 79 27 127 18 10 27 0.535 1
Dallas 56 12 76 25 132 20 19 9 0.507 16
Washington 78 25 56 11 134 21 14 14 0.474 27
Cleveland 78 25 60 13 138 22 11 23 0.480 26
Orlando 84 28 57 12 141 23 10 27 0.487 20
Brooklyn 52 9 90 29 142 24 11 23 0.495 17
New York 71 20 74 22 145 25 10 27 0.488 19
Boston 77 24 71 21 148 26 13 20 0.471 28
Philadelphia 88 30 62 14 150 27 11 23 0.481 24
LA Lakers 80 27 74 22 154 28 13 20 0.512 10
Milwaukee 85 29 76 25 161 29 7 30 0.461 30
Utah 71 20 94 30 165 30 11 23 0.528 2


Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success. One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL ratings that are best when higher. We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points.

Biggest movers over last 7 days as measured by Overall Performance Ranking:
GS +7, TOR +5, MEM +5, CHI +4, ATL +3, LAC +3, SA (3), MIA (3), OKC (4), CHA (4), DEN (5), DET (6), SAC (6), WAS (6)

Based on these ratings & how teams have performed in the win/loss column through yesterday’s games (1/2), here are a few teams to be both bullish and bearish on:

Bullish: Minnesota, Toronto, and Charlotte for third consecutive week. Atlanta & Chicago newly minted bulls, no pun intended.

Bearish: Phoenix for 3rd consecutive week; Dallas newly minted bear.

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:

Power Ratings (As of 1/2/14)
Team Home Road
Minnesota 116.0 113.0
Indiana 116.8 112.3
Toronto 114.0 112.0
LA Clippers 115.8 111.8
Portland 115.0 111.0
San Antonio 114.3 110.8
Oklahoma City 114.4 110.4
Houston 113.0 109.5
Atlanta 112.5 109.0
Charlotte 111.0 109.0
Chicago 110.8 108.3
Golden State 111.7 108.2
Memphis 109.7 107.7
Miami 111.4 107.4
New Orleans 110.3 107.3
Detroit 109.1 107.1
Denver 108.7 106.7
Phoenix 109.6 106.6
Sacramento 108.6 106.6
Dallas 109.3 105.8
Washington 108.0 105.5
Cleveland 107.5 105.0
Orlando 106.5 104.5
Brooklyn 106.4 104.4
New York 105.9 103.9
Boston 105.5 103.5
Philadelphia 105.2 103.2
LA Lakers 104.6 102.6
Milwaukee 103.6 101.6
Utah 103.0 101.0


Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: SU to date, ATS to date & SU projected at season’s end:

Win Projection (As of 1/2/14)
Category SU Wins ATS Wins Overall
Team Home Road Home Road Projected Wins Rank
Minnesota 16 12 18 6 48.96 9
Indiana 25 2 22 1 58.48 2
Toronto 15 13 16 14 47.77 10
LA Clippers 22 6 20 3 55.48 4
Portland 26 1 20 3 49.91 7
San Antonio 25 2 17 9 57.80 3
Oklahoma City 25 2 17 9 54.97 5
Houston 21 7 17 9 45.72 13
Atlanta 18 11 18 6 42.38 15
Charlotte 14 14 19 5 36.22 20
Chicago 13 20 12 26 32.75 22
Golden State 21 7 16 14 51.47 6
Memphis 14 14 11 29 41.39 16
Miami 24 5 14 19 58.55 1
New Orleans 14 14 13 23 46.33 12
Detroit 14 14 14 19 44.34 14
Denver 14 14 13 23 37.06 19
Phoenix 19 9 22 1 47.70 11
Sacramento 10 27 12 26 30.21 24
Dallas 19 9 18 6 49.57 8
Washington 14 14 17 9 40.54 18
Cleveland 11 23 14 19 29.41 25
Orlando 10 27 15 16 32.06 23
Brooklyn 11 23 13 23 26.25 26
New York 10 27 11 29 40.75 17
Boston 13 20 15 16 34.29 21
Philadelphia 11 23 14 19 24.69 27
LA Lakers 13 20 17 9 23.20 28
Milwaukee 7 30 12 26 21.77 29
Utah 11 23 15 16 19.54 30


Of note from this matrix is the middle column – this entire matrix is sorted according to where the team’s stacked up in the Performance Ratings above – with that mind we can see the top ten teams in performance are all within the top 9 of ATS winners in the NBA besides Toronto – keep an eye on the Raptors making an ATS run if they maintain the same level of play, with tonight’s game that I mentioned above further supported by this data.

This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular season (estimated to have an error of +/- 6 wins). Based on these projections as of 01/02 the playoffs would set up like this:

Western Conference

1) San Antonio 58-24
2) LA Clippers 55-27
3) Oklahoma City 55-27
4) Golden State 51-31
5) Portland 50-32
6) Dallas 50-32
7) Minnesota 49-33
8) Phoenix 48-34

Eastern Conference

1) Miami 59-23
2) Indiana 58-34
3) Toronto 48-34
4) Detroit 44-38
5) Atlanta 42-40
6) New York 41-41
7) Washington 41-41
8) Charlotte 36-46

  
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