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Power Ratings - (2/18/14)

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Performance Ratings (As of 2/18/14)
Category Offense Defense Total
Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank
Minnesota 41 5 43 6 84 1
Portland 29 1 67 17 96 2
Toronto 43 7 53 11 96 2
Oklahoma City 51 11 46 7 97 4
L.A. Clippers 33 2 65 16 98 5
Houston 38 3 61 13 99 6
Indiana 70 20 31 2 101 7
Chicago 77 25 26 1 103 8
San Antonio 65 15 39 4 104 9
Golden State 71 21 38 3 109 10
Memphis 61 14 48 8 109 10
Charlotte 69 18 41 5 110 12
Detroit 56 12 64 15 120 13
Phoenix 48 9 73 21 121 14
Denver 47 8 75 23 122 15
New Orleans 40 4 83 26 123 16
Atlanta 76 23 48 8 124 17
Dallas 49 10 77 24 126 18
Washington 76 23 50 10 126 18
Sacramento 41 5 88 29 129 20
Cleveland 69 18 61 13 130 21
Brooklyn 60 13 74 22 134 22
Miami 65 15 69 18 134 22
New York 66 17 71 19 137 24
Orlando 86 28 58 12 144 25
Boston 85 27 72 20 157 26
L.A. Lakers 77 25 80 25 157 26
Utah 73 22 90 30 163 28
Milwaukee 99 29 83 26 182 29
Philadelphia 99 29 86 28 185 30


Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success. One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL ratings that are best when higher. We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points. Last key item of note is these ratings weight each stat equally, where below in my projected wins & power ratings they are properly weighted to their impact based on statistical testing.

Next let's dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:

Power Ratings (As of 2/18/14)
Team Home Road
Miami 117.0 113.0
L.A. Clippers 115.5 111.5
Indiana 115.5 111.5
Oklahoma City 115.3 111.3
San Antonio 114.2 111.2
Golden State 114.1 111.1
Dallas 113.8 110.8
Toronto 113.1 110.6
Phoenix 113.4 110.4
Minnesota 112.3 109.8
Houston 113.3 109.8
Washington 112.2 109.7
Memphis 110.9 108.4
New York 110.2 108.2
Detroit 110.1 108.1
Portland 111.5 108.0
New Orleans 110.4 107.9
Atlanta 110.6 107.6
Brooklyn 110.1 107.6
Chicago 110.2 107.2
Charlotte 109.1 107.1
Denver 109.1 106.6
Sacramento 108.6 106.6
Cleveland 108.7 106.2
Boston 107.3 105.3
Orlando 105.6 103.6
L.A. Lakers 105.6 103.6
Utah 104.8 102.8
Philadelphia 102.4 100.4
Milwaukee 102.0 100.0

These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups. Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: SU to date, ATS to date, SU projected wins at season’s end & current SOS:

Win Projection (As of 2/18/14)
Category Win % ATS Win % Projected Wins Current SOS
Team Wins Rank Wins Rank Wins Rank SOS Rank
Miami 0.725 3 0.440 24 57.31 1 0.544 6
L.A. Clippers 0.673 7 0.564 7 57.17 2 0.507 12
Indiana 0.769 2 0.615 2 57.00 3 0.563 2
Oklahoma City 0.782 1 0.582 4 55.92 4 0.577 1
San Antonio 0.717 4 0.472 17 53.96 5 0.562 3
Golden State 0.585 10 0.460 22 52.55 6 0.533 7
Dallas 0.593 8 0.574 5 51.52 7 0.526 8
Toronto 0.538 12 0.608 3 51.42 8 0.511 11
Phoenix 0.588 9 0.660 1 49.87 9 0.526 8
Minnesota 0.472 16 0.509 13 47.80 11 0.504 13
Houston 0.679 5 0.529 11 48.36 10 0.551 5
Washington 0.481 15 0.558 8 44.94 12 0.493 16
Memphis 0.558 11 0.471 18 44.90 13 0.525 10
New York 0.385 22 0.404 28 44.34 14 0.466 25
Detroit 0.423 21 0.451 23 43.74 15 0.467 24
Portland 0.679 5 0.547 9 43.01 16 0.557 4
New Orleans 0.442 19 0.469 20 41.16 17 0.490 20
Atlanta 0.490 14 0.510 12 39.81 18 0.491 18
Brooklyn 0.471 17 0.490 15 37.81 19 0.492 17
Chicago 0.519 13 0.481 16 37.54 20 0.491 18
Charlotte 0.434 20 0.569 6 37.29 21 0.473 23
Denver 0.471 17 0.431 26 36.24 22 0.496 15
Sacramento 0.340 26 0.471 18 32.66 23 0.478 22
Cleveland 0.377 23 0.434 25 30.34 24 0.452 26
Boston 0.352 25 0.491 14 29.82 25 0.452 26
Orlando 0.296 28 0.426 27 26.27 26 0.445 28
L.A. Lakers 0.340 26 0.538 10 22.43 27 0.503 14
Utah 0.365 24 0.469 20 21.80 28 0.481 21
Philadelphia 0.278 29 0.389 29 19.18 29 0.432 29
Milwaukee 0.173 30 0.385 30 16.97 30 0.408 30


This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular season (estimated to have an error of +/- 4 wins). Based on these projections as of the All-Star Break the playoffs would set up like this; in addition I have included all teams in each conference to get a feel for how far out your favorite team is from being projected a playoff squad, along with how the lottery will set up. Lastly, to give a better representation of estimated final record I use where each team is currently record wise and simply apply my projected winning % for each team based on my performance ratings to their remaining schedule:

Western Conference

1) Oklahoma City 61-21
2) San Antonio 57-25
3) LA Clippers 56-26
4) Houston 53-29
5) Portland 51-31
6) Dallas 50-32
7) Golden State 50-32
8) Phoenix 49-33
9) Memphis 45-37
10) Minnesota 42-40
11) New Orleans 38-44
12) Denver 38-44
13) Sacramento 30-52
14) Utah 27-55
15) LA Lakers 26-56

Eastern Conference

1) Indiana 61-21
2) Miami 59-23
3) Toronto 47-35
4) Washington 41-41
5) Chicago 41-41
6) Atlanta 40-42
7) Brooklyn 38-44
8) Detroit 38-44
9) New York 36-46
10) Charlotte 36-46
11) Cleveland 31-51
12) Boston 29-53
13) Orlando 25-57
14) Philadelphia 22-60
15) Milwaukee 15-67

  
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