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Power Ratings - (3/6/14)

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Performance Ratings (As of 3/6/13)
Category Offense Defense Total
Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank
Minnesota 38 4 43 7 81 1
Oklahoma City 49 7 39 4 88 2
Houston 36 3 57 12 93 3
L.A. Clippers 33 1 60 15 93 3
Portland 35 2 61 16 96 5
Indiana 70 21 30 1 100 6
Toronto 49 7 51 10 100 6
San Antonio 65 15 36 3 101 8
Chicago 73 24 31 2 104 9
Charlotte 67 18 41 5 108 10
Golden State 67 18 41 5 108 10
Memphis 63 13 47 9 110 12
Phoenix 49 7 70 20 119 13
Washington 75 25 44 8 119 13
Cleveland 65 15 56 11 121 15
Detroit 57 12 68 17 125 16
Atlanta 72 23 57 12 129 17
Sacramento 46 6 84 26 130 18
Denver 51 10 80 23 131 19
Miami 63 13 68 17 131 19
New Orleans 42 5 91 30 133 21
Dallas 51 10 83 25 134 22
Brooklyn 66 17 72 21 138 23
Orlando 82 27 59 14 141 24
New York 68 20 79 22 147 25
Boston 86 28 69 19 155 26
Utah 70 21 89 29 159 27
L.A. Lakers 78 26 82 24 160 28
Milwaukee 91 29 86 27 177 29
Philadelphia 103 30 86 27 189 30


Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success. One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL ratings that are best when higher. We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points. Last key item of note is these ratings weight each stat equally, where below in my projected wins & power ratings they are properly weighted to their impact based on statistical testing.

Power Ratings (As of 3/6/13)
Team Home Road
Miami 117.0 113.0
L.A. Clippers 116.2 112.2
Indiana 115.6 111.6
Oklahoma City 115.6 111.6
Golden State 114.2 111.2
San Antonio 114.2 110.7
Dallas 113.7 110.7
Toronto 113.1 110.6
Phoenix 113.2 110.2
Houston 113.3 109.8
Washington 112.3 109.8
Minnesota 112.0 109.5
Memphis 110.9 108.4
Portland 111.9 108.4
Detroit 110.2 108.2
New York 109.7 107.7
Brooklyn 110.2 107.2
Chicago 110.1 107.1
Charlotte 109.5 107.0
New Orleans 109.0 107.0
Atlanta 109.7 106.7
Denver 108.6 106.6
Sacramento 108.1 106.1
Cleveland 107.8 105.8
Boston 107.1 105.1
Orlando 106.1 104.1
L.A. Lakers 105.6 103.6
Utah 105.5 103.5
Milwaukee 103.4 101.4
Philadelphia 102.0 100.0


These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups.

Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: SU to date, ATS to date, SU projected wins at season’s end & current SOS:

Win Projection (As of 3/6/13)
Category Win % ATS Win % Projected Wins Current SOS
Team Wins Rank Wins Rank Wins Rank SOS Rank
Miami 0.741 3 0.482 18 60.94 1 0.552 6
L.A. Clippers 0.677 7 0.581 3 56.19 5 0.507 13
Indiana 0.754 1 0.550 7 59.92 3 0.553 4
Oklahoma City 0.754 1 0.567 5 60.15 2 0.571 1
Golden State 0.613 8 0.508 15 51.17 8 0.538 7
San Antonio 0.733 4 0.483 16 58.07 4 0.568 2
Dallas 0.581 10 0.548 8 48.55 9 0.522 10
Toronto 0.559 12 0.603 2 47.20 11 0.515 11
Phoenix 0.583 9 0.644 1 48.14 10 0.526 8
Houston 0.689 5 0.542 9 54.44 6 0.553 4
Washington 0.525 14 0.567 5 44.43 13 0.499 17
Minnesota 0.500 16 0.517 14 42.91 15 0.509 12
Memphis 0.567 11 0.466 19 46.18 12 0.525 9
Portland 0.689 5 0.541 10 53.67 7 0.556 3
Detroit 0.393 20 0.450 24 34.72 20 0.465 24
New York 0.355 24 0.403 29 31.79 22 0.460 25
Brooklyn 0.508 15 0.525 12 41.07 16 0.500 16
Chicago 0.557 13 0.525 13 43.89 14 0.505 14
Charlotte 0.459 17 0.569 4 37.84 17 0.487 18
New Orleans 0.393 20 0.439 25 33.52 21 0.478 21
Atlanta 0.441 18 0.466 19 36.36 18 0.481 20
Denver 0.433 19 0.433 26 35.57 19 0.486 19
Sacramento 0.361 23 0.458 22 30.37 24 0.476 22
Cleveland 0.387 22 0.452 23 31.52 23 0.459 26
Boston 0.328 27 0.483 16 27.42 25 0.448 27
Orlando 0.302 28 0.426 27 25.56 28 0.439 28
L.A. Lakers 0.344 25 0.533 11 26.81 26 0.503 15
Utah 0.344 25 0.466 19 26.63 27 0.474 23
Milwaukee 0.200 30 0.417 28 17.35 30 0.414 30
Philadelphia 0.246 29 0.361 30 19.39 29 0.422 29


This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will finish with come the end of the regular season (and they only get more accurate the deeper into the season we get). Based on these projections the playoffs would set up like this; in addition I have included all teams in each conference that have a chance at reaching playoffs.

Lastly, to give a better representation of estimated final record I use where each team is currently record wise and simply apply my projected winning % for each team based on my performance ratings to their remaining schedule:

Western Conference

1) Oklahoma City 60-22
2) San Antonio 58-24
3) LA Clippers 56-26
4) Houston 54-28
5) Portland 54-28
6) Golden State 51-31
7) Dallas 49-33
8) Phoenix 48-34
9) Memphis 46-36
10) Minnesota 43-39

Eastern Conference

1) Miami 61-21
2) Indiana 60-22
3) Toronto 47-35
4) Washington 44-38
5) Chicago 44-38
6) Brooklyn 41-41
7) Charlotte 38-44
8) Atlanta 36-46
9) Detroit 35-47
10) New York 32-50
11) Cleveland 32-50

  
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