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Power Ratings - (3/21/14)

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Performance Ratings (As of 3/21/14)
Category Offense Defense Total
Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank
Minnesota 37 4 47 8 84 1
L.A. Clippers 30 1 55 11 85 2
Oklahoma City 50 7 43 6 93 3
Portland 32 2 61 16 93 3
Houston 36 3 59 14 95 5
San Antonio 66 15 36 3 102 6
Toronto 49 6 53 10 102 6
Golden State 66 15 39 4 105 8
Indiana 73 21 32 1 105 8
Memphis 60 13 45 7 105 8
Charlotte 68 20 39 4 107 11
Chicago 74 23 33 2 107 11
Cleveland 67 19 55 11 122 13
Phoenix 50 7 72 19 122 13
Sacramento 50 7 72 19 122 13
Detroit 55 12 69 18 124 16
Washington 73 21 51 9 124 16
Denver 53 11 75 23 128 18
Miami 66 15 63 17 129 19
Dallas 50 7 80 25 130 20
Atlanta 74 23 58 13 132 21
New Orleans 44 5 90 29 134 22
Brooklyn 63 14 72 19 135 23
New York 66 15 79 24 145 24
Orlando 85 29 60 15 145 24
Boston 83 28 72 19 155 26
L.A. Lakers 78 26 81 26 159 27
Utah 77 25 88 27 165 28
Milwaukee 78 26 93 30 171 29
Philadelphia 107 30 88 27 195 30


Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success. One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL ratings that are best when higher. We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points. Last key item of note is these ratings weight each stat equally, where below in my projected wins & power ratings they are properly weighted to their impact based on statistical testing. Using an equal weight for each statistic can add a lot of value to your handicapping efforts when properly applied.

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:

Power Ratings (As of 3/21/14)
Team Home Road
L.A. Clippers 117.0 113.0
Miami 116.9 112.9
Golden State 114.9 111.9
San Antonio 115.4 111.9
Oklahoma City 115.7 111.7
Indiana 114.9 110.9
Dallas 113.9 110.9
Toronto 113.5 110.5
Phoenix 113.5 110.5
Houston 114.5 110.5
Minnesota 112.8 110.3
Memphis 113.3 110.3
Washington 111.0 108.5
Portland 112.0 108.5
New York 110.5 108.5
Detroit 110.3 108.3
Brooklyn 111.3 108.3
Chicago 110.8 107.8
Charlotte 110.2 107.7
New Orleans 109.6 107.6
Atlanta 110.4 107.4
Denver 109.6 107.1
Sacramento 109.0 107.0
Cleveland 107.9 105.9
Boston 107.9 105.9
Orlando 106.7 104.7
Milwaukee 106.2 104.2
Utah 105.5 103.5
L.A. Lakers 104.8 102.8
Philadelphia 102.0 100.0


The above are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups.

Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: SU to date, ATS to date, SU projected wins at season’s end & current SOS:

Win Projection (As of 3/21/14)
Category Win % ATS Win % Projected Wins Current SOS
Team Wins Rank Wins Rank Wins Rank SOS Rank
L.A. Clippers 0.696 5 0.574 4 57.57 4 0.507 14
Miami 0.697 4 0.453 24 57.30 5 0.544 5
Golden State 0.629 8 0.493 16 51.99 7 0.540 7
San Antonio 0.761 1 0.522 10 61.11 1 0.572 1
Oklahoma City 0.735 2 0.552 5 59.20 2 0.566 2
Indiana 0.735 2 0.507 14 58.90 3 0.544 5
Dallas 0.594 10 0.551 6 49.21 9 0.529 9
Toronto 0.567 12 0.606 2 47.19 12 0.516 11
Phoenix 0.574 11 0.657 1 47.22 11 0.524 10
Houston 0.662 6 0.530 8 53.34 6 0.556 3
Minnesota 0.507 16 0.493 16 42.64 16 0.508 13
Memphis 0.597 9 0.477 18 48.71 10 0.531 8
Washington 0.515 15 0.522 10 42.98 15 0.495 17
Portland 0.652 7 0.536 7 51.97 8 0.549 4
New York 0.412 20 0.441 27 35.45 20 0.469 23
Detroit 0.373 23 0.424 28 32.40 22 0.461 26
Brooklyn 0.530 14 0.530 8 43.16 14 0.505 15
Chicago 0.559 13 0.500 15 44.83 13 0.511 12
Charlotte 0.478 17 0.591 3 39.20 17 0.489 18
New Orleans 0.403 21 0.444 26 33.89 21 0.479 21
Atlanta 0.470 18 0.462 21 38.21 18 0.488 20
Denver 0.456 19 0.456 23 37.25 19 0.489 18
Sacramento 0.353 24 0.470 19 29.46 24 0.470 22
Cleveland 0.377 22 0.464 20 30.86 23 0.462 25
Boston 0.333 25 0.515 13 27.65 25 0.452 27
Orlando 0.275 28 0.418 29 23.38 28 0.434 28
Milwaukee 0.188 30 0.449 25 16.30 30 0.410 30
Utah 0.319 27 0.462 21 25.23 27 0.468 24
L.A. Lakers 0.328 26 0.515 12 25.59 26 0.503 16
Philadelphia 0.221 29 0.382 30 17.91 29 0.418 29


This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will finish with come the end of the regular season (and they only get more accurate the deeper into the season we get). Based on these projections the playoffs would set up like this; in addition I have included all teams in each conference that have a chance at reaching playoffs. Lastly, to give a better representation of estimated final record I use where each team is currently record wise and simply apply my projected winning % for each team based on my performance ratings to their remaining schedule:

Western Conference

#1 San Antonio 61-21
#2 Oklahoma City 59-23
#3 LA Clippers 58-24
#4 Houston 53-29
#5 Golden State 52-30
#6 Portland 52-30
#7 Dallas 49-33
#8 Memphis 49-33
#9 Phoenix 47-35

Eastern Conference

#1 Indiana 59-23
#2 Miami 57-25
#3 Toronto 47-35
#4 Chicago 45-37
#5 Brooklyn 43-39
#6 Washington 43-39
#7 Charlotte 39-43
#8 Atlanta 38-44
#9 New York 35-47

  
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