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Power Ratings - (3/31/14)

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Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success. One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to our NFL ratings that are best when higher. We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points.

Performance Ratings (As of 3/31/14)
Category Offense Defense Total
Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank
Minnesota 35 3 47 8 82 1
L.A. Clippers 30 1 56 11 86 2
Portland 34 2 58 14 92 3
Oklahoma City 53 10 42 5 95 4
Houston 36 4 59 16 95 4
Toronto 47 6 51 10 98 6
San Antonio 66 17 34 2 100 7
Memphis 58 13 44 7 102 8
Golden State 63 15 40 4 103 9
Indiana 75 21 31 1 106 10
Chicago 75 21 34 2 109 11
Charlotte 68 20 42 5 110 12
Phoenix 51 9 69 18 120 13
Miami 65 16 57 12 122 14
Sacramento 49 7 74 22 123 15
Washington 75 21 48 9 123 15
Cleveland 67 19 57 12 124 17
Dallas 49 7 77 24 126 18
Detroit 57 12 71 19 128 19
New Orleans 41 5 89 27 130 20
Denver 55 11 76 23 131 21
Brooklyn 62 14 71 19 133 22
Atlanta 78 26 58 14 136 23
Orlando 85 28 59 16 144 24
New York 66 17 83 25 149 25
Boston 85 28 71 19 156 26
L.A. Lakers 78 26 86 26 164 27
Utah 77 25 92 29 169 28
Milwaukee 76 24 94 30 170 29
Philadelphia 104 30 90 28 194 30


Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:

Power Ratings (As of 3/31/14)
Team Home Road
L.A. Clippers 117.0 113.0
Miami 116.5 112.5
San Antonio 115.3 111.8
Golden State 114.5 111.5
Oklahoma City 115.5 111.5
Dallas 114.1 111.1
Toronto 113.9 110.9
Houston 114.2 110.7
Indiana 114.6 110.6
Phoenix 113.2 110.2
Memphis 112.9 109.9
Minnesota 112.8 109.8
Washington 111.1 108.6
Portland 111.9 108.4
New York 110.2 108.2
Brooklyn 111.2 108.2
Charlotte 110.6 108.1
Chicago 110.9 107.9
New Orleans 110.2 107.7
Detroit 109.4 107.4
Denver 109.8 107.3
Atlanta 109.6 107.1
Sacramento 108.7 106.7
Cleveland 107.8 105.8
Boston 107.2 105.2
Orlando 106.4 104.4
L.A. Lakers 105.5 103.5
Milwaukee 104.9 102.9
Utah 104.8 102.8
Philadelphia 102.0 100.0


These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups.

Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: SU to date, ATS to date, SU projected wins at season’s end & current SOS:

Win Projection (As of 3/31/14)
Category Win % ATS Win % Projected Wins Current SOS
Team Wins Rank Wins Rank Wins Rank SOS Rank
L.A. Clippers 0.703 3 0.562 4 57.87 3 0.507 13
Miami 0.694 5 0.471 19 57.10 4 0.543 5
San Antonio 0.781 1 0.548 6 63.28 1 0.574 1
Golden State 0.616 8 0.486 17 50.90 8 0.538 7
Oklahoma City 0.740 2 0.549 5 59.98 2 0.565 2
Dallas 0.595 9 0.541 9 49.07 9 0.530 9
Toronto 0.575 12 0.606 2 47.47 12 0.514 11
Houston 0.681 6 0.529 10 55.07 6 0.554 3
Indiana 0.703 3 0.479 18 56.84 5 0.540 6
Phoenix 0.595 9 0.658 1 48.76 10 0.526 10
Memphis 0.589 11 0.465 22 48.29 11 0.533 8
Minnesota 0.500 16 0.486 15 41.75 16 0.505 14
Washington 0.521 15 0.514 11 43.18 15 0.497 17
Portland 0.640 7 0.547 7 51.69 7 0.545 4
New York 0.419 21 0.432 28 35.06 21 0.467 24
Brooklyn 0.542 14 0.542 8 44.19 14 0.505 14
Charlotte 0.479 17 0.586 3 39.40 17 0.491 18
Chicago 0.562 13 0.486 15 45.39 13 0.513 12
New Orleans 0.438 18 0.471 21 36.28 18 0.491 18
Detroit 0.356 23 0.431 29 30.21 23 0.456 26
Denver 0.438 18 0.452 23 35.82 19 0.491 18
Atlanta 0.431 20 0.437 26 35.16 20 0.479 21
Sacramento 0.342 24 0.471 19 28.48 24 0.469 23
Cleveland 0.400 22 0.493 14 32.71 22 0.470 22
Boston 0.315 26 0.507 13 26.22 26 0.448 27
Orlando 0.284 28 0.437 26 23.80 28 0.435 28
L.A. Lakers 0.342 24 0.514 11 27.39 25 0.503 16
Milwaukee 0.192 30 0.452 23 16.30 30 0.412 30
Utah 0.311 27 0.449 25 24.91 27 0.464 25
Philadelphia 0.219 29 0.397 30 18.04 29 0.420 29


This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will finish with come the end of the regular season (and they only get more accurate the deeper into the season we get). Based on these projections the playoffs would set up like this; in addition I have included all teams in each conference that have a chance at reaching playoffs.

Lastly, to give a better representation of estimated final record I use where each team is currently record wise and simply apply my projected winning % for each team based on my performance ratings to their remaining schedule:

Western Conference

#1 San Antonio 63-19
#2 Oklahoma City 60-22
#3 LA Clippers 58-24
#4 Houston 55-27
#5 Portland 52-30
#6 Golden State 51-31
#7 Dallas 49-33
#8 Phoenix 49-33
#9 Memphis 48-34

Eastern Conference

#1 Miami 57-25
#2 Indiana 57-25
#3 Toronto 47-35
#4 Chicago 45-37
#5 Brooklyn 44-38
#6 Washington 43-39
#7 Charlotte 39-43
#8 Atlanta 35-47
#9 New York 35-47
#10 Cleveland 33-49

  
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