VegasInsider.com
VI Mobile Scores and Betting OddsVI Mobile Scores and Betting Odds Be Social
Home
NFL
NBA
NHL
MLB
NCAA FB
NCAA BK
Golf
Auto
Horses
Soccer
Fantasy Sports
More
Betting Tools

 
Zig-Zag Theory
Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence's pro basketball selections can be purchased this postseason on VegasInsider.com. Click to win!

NBA Zig Zags…Up In Smoke  

Long before “The Gold Sheet” first called out the premise, Zig Zags were primarily recognized as popular rolling papers for those who enjoy their smoke of choice. 
 
In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs. 
 
Advertisement
The premise is simple:
 
‘Play On’ a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.
 
The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways. 
 
How have these plays held up of late?  You might be surprised. 
 
Here are pointspread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2013.
 
Game On, Dude
 
Overall: 745-661-36 (52.9%)
 
Game Two: 186-147-13 (55.8%)
Game Three: 188-151-6 (55.4%)
Game Four: 153-155-7 (49.6%)
Game Five: 117-118-6 (49.7%)
Game Six: 72-67-2 (51.7%)
Game Seven: 29-23-2 (55.7%)
 
The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game Two where they become a near 56% point-spread play on the blind. 
 
That’s especially true for home teams off a Game One home loss as they are 50-33-1 ATS (60.2%), including a spotless 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog.
 
Burn Baby Burn
 
Like all things that are popular, though, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.
 
A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the odds makers has seen the NBA Zig Zags go up in smoke since 2001. 
 
That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 13 years (2001-2013), going 434-412-26 – or 51.3% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.
 
Talk about a buzz kill.
 
Round ‘Em Up
 
Round One: 351-315-20 (52.7%)
Round Two: 227-195-7 (53.7%)
Round Three: 167-151-9 (52.5%
Round Four: 56-48-3 (53.8%)
 
While it appears there is hold no discernable edge between rounds, it’s interesting to note that the largest profits are derived by home teams in Round Two as they are 124-103-4, including 76-48-3 when playing off a double-digit defeat.
 
Planting the Seed
 
No. 1 Seeds: 101-95-5 (51.5%)
No. 2 Seeds: 100-80-3 (55.5%)
No. 3 Seeds: 87-75-9 (53.7%)
No. 4 Seeds: 76-68-1 (52.7%)
No. 5 Seeds: 69-62-2 (52.6%)
No. 6 Seeds: 55-53-2 (50.9%)
No. 7 Seeds: 39-58-4 (40.2%)
No. 8 Seeds: 57-43-5 (57.0%)
 
Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds. 
 
Disparate results abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds. 
 
Digging deeper, No. 7’s are a not-so-lucky 3-15-1 (16.6%) as underdogs of 9 or more points, while No.8’s are 12-5 (70.5%) as a ‘pick’ or favorite.
 
Rocky Mountain High
 
So then where is it we can still expect to catch the best buzz possible with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?
 
Twist these two up for size and remember, no bogarting:
 
1) Double Digit Dogs are 44-23-2 (65.6%) and…
2) Favorites of 4 ½ points or more off a loss of 20 points or more are 30-9 (76.9%).
 
After all, they make the best ‘sense’… if you know what I mean.
 
 

  
HEADLINES
News: NBA Finals Predictions
News: NBA Finals MVP Odds
News: NBA Finals Series Odds
News: 2017 NBA Draft Props
LeBron undaunted by Warriors challenge
Cavs insist they have plenty of bite left
Durant, Warriors shrug off parity talk
Spurs might be ready to chase Paul
Myers' care for people goes long way
MORE HEADLINES
 
Why Buy Picks From VegasInsider.com
NBA Pro Basketball Handicapper Sports Picks Records
NBA Hot Streaks
9-2 L11 Totals, 20-6 L26 G-Plays
15-3 G-Plays, 13-6 L19, 20-9 Run
5-1 L6 Picks, +3,183 G-Plays TY
8-2 L10, 14-4 L18, 26-10 Streak
7-2 G-Plays, 11-4 Picks, 11-5 Totals
19-9 L28 G-Plays, 17-9 L26 Totals
6-0 Totals, 6-1 G-Plays, 10-3 Picks
22-10 L32 Totals, +2,870 This Year
9-3 L12 Totals, 4-2 L6 Picks
6-0 Postseason Win Streak
23-9 L32 NBA Selections
2-0 Thursday, 38-18 L56 G-Plays
9-3 Record Last 12 Picks
8-3 Last 11 Playoff Picks
5-1 L6 Picks, 11-5 L16 G-Plays
26-12 Last 38 NBA Streak
7-3 L10 Guaranteed Plays
4-1 L5 Postseason Picks
9-4 Last 13 NBA Totals
NBA Pro Basketball Expert Sports Picks - NBA Finals - Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors
2016 NBA SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
NeiltheGreek + 2870
Alex Smart + 2724
Mark Franco + 1305
Last 7 Day Leaders
Handicapper Money
Joe Nelson + 195
Micah Roberts + 182
Dave Cokin + 100
Percentage Leaders
Handicapper Pct
Jim Feist 56 %
Kyle Hunter 55 %
Alex Smart 55 %
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Alex Smart + 3183
ASA + 2179
The Gold Sheet + 1730
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
NeiltheGreek + 2673
Bill Marzano + 1856
Paul Bovi + 920
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
Bruce Marshall + 1706
Kevin Rogers + 1511
Gary Bart + 1104
MORE PICK RECORDS
  
corner graphic
With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 10% off a Live Odds subscription, SAVE 20% off Daily Pick packages, and receive access to up to 1,000 Member Plays each month!
VI Gold Membership