Saturday's Late Action
April 25, 2014
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Miami (56-28) at Charlotte (43-41)
Eastern Conference First Round - Game 3
Miami leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Saturday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Miami -5.5, Total: 188
The Bobcats look to avoid a 3-0 series deficit on Saturday when they host the Heat in Game 3 of their first-round playoff series.
Miami had a double-digit lead going into the second half of Game 2, but Charlotte battled its way back before eventually losing 101-97 to suffer an 18th straight defeat in this series. But now the series shifts to Time Warner Cable Arena, where the Bobcats are 25-16 SU (24-15-2 ATS) this season, while the Heat are only 22-19 SU (19-20-2 ATS) on the road this season.
And despite Miami's SU series dominance, which includes a 9-3 ATS mark in the past dozen meetings overall, the teams are an even 9-9-1 ATS in 19 all-time games in Charlotte, with the past five meetings all finishing Over the total. Both teams have positive betting trends here, as in the past two seasons, the Heat are 32-18 ATS (64%) after failing to cover in three of their previous four games. They are also facing an opponent that is 13-25 ATS (34%) after playing two consecutive road games over the past two seasons. However, the Bobcats are 9-1 ATS in home games when playing six or less games in 14 days this season, and are also 33-22 ATS (60%) as an underdog this season.
Although Charlotte PF Josh McRoberts avoided a suspension for an elbow to the throat of LeBron James, teammate C Al Jefferson will continue to play at less than 100 percent due to plantar fasciitis in his foot. Miami has no significant injuries
SF LeBron James (29.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.0 SPG in series) has had his fingerprints all over this series so far. Whenever Miami needs him to make a play, James is finding a teammate or attacking the rim. The Bobcats do not have an answer for the forward, and his 32 points, eight assists, six rebounds and four steals in Game 2 is just a sign of what’s to come in the next few games.
PF Chris Bosh (16.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.5 SPG in series) finally had a big game for Miami on Wednesday with 20 points (8-of-11 FG, 4-of-5 threes), five rebounds and two blocks in 32 minutes. The Heat will need Bosh to knock down his jumpers throughout the rest of the playoffs, as he is their only big man capable of putting up points.
SG Dwyane Wade (19.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.5 SPG in series) didn’t need to do much for the Heat to win Game 2, finishing with just 15 points (4-of-10 FG), six rebounds, four turnovers and a poor rating of minus-9 in 35 minutes of play.
PG Mario Chalmers (9.0 PPG, 2.5 APG in series) played excellent defense on Kemba Walker in Game 2, and also knocked down his shots when he needed to. He finished the game with 11 points (3-of-7 FG, 2-of-4 threes), three assists and just one turnover in 30 minutes and gave a big boost for the team on both ends of the floor. The Miami bench also played well on Wednesday, as the five reserves combined for 21 points (8-of-18 FG), 13 rebounds and a stellar +51 rating.
Charlotte played an excellent second half in Game 2, but is now in a must-win situation for Game 3. C Al Jefferson (18.0 PPG, 11.5 RPG in series) has been dealing with a lingering foot injury but still logged 40 minutes on Wednesday and finished with 18 points and 13 rebounds (5 offensive). He is the best post player in this series, and a guy that the Bobcats can dump the ball into and rely on for offense whenever they need it.
SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (13.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG in series) had one of his best games as a pro in Game 2 with 22 points (9-of-13 FG), 10 rebounds and a +11 rating in 34 minutes. The Bobcats rely on Kidd-Gilchrist for his defense, but he was able to find holes attacking the Miami big men, and if this continues, Charlotte has a real chance of getting back into this series. While Kidd-Gilchrist made 69% of his shots in Game 2, the rest of his team shot only 37% from the floor.
But for the Bobcats to win, PG Kemba Walker (18.0 PPG, 7.0 APG, 4.0 RPG, 2.0 SPG in series) must break out of his shooting slump. Walker has not been the same since returning from a groin injury, making just 18-of-58 FG (31%) in four games. But he has kept the defense honest this series by knocking down 7-of-15 threes, and his decision making in Game 2 (8 assists, 2 turnovers) was much better than what he did in the series opener (6 assists, 6 turnovers). SG Gerald Henderson (10.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG in series) has also been off the mark at 40% FG and 0-for-6 threes in the postseason. During the regular season, he averaged 14.0 PPG on 43% FG and 35% threes.
Oklahoma City (60-25) at Memphis (52-33)
Western Conference First Round- Game 4
Memphis leads series 2-1
Tip-off: Saturday, 9:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Oklahoma City -2.5, Total: 188
The Thunder are in a must-win situation as they look to avoid a 3-1 series hole against the Grizzlies on Saturday night.
Oklahoma City was down 17 points midway through the fourth quarter in Game 3, but battled back to tie it on a Russell Westbrook three-pointer. A four-point play by Westbrook sent the game to overtime, but the Grizzlies were able to get their second consecutive overtime victory in the series, prevailing 98-95. The Thunder need bigger performances from their supporting players, as they got only 35 points from everybody else besides Westbrook and Kevin Durant. This is adding pressure to the duo as they combined to go just 17-of-53 from the field and 4-of-21 from the three-point line).
One positive note the Thunder (44-40-1 ATS overall, 20-22 ATS on road) can take out of the game was the way they defended at the end of regulation, which allowed them to get back into the game. However, for the team to win, they will have to defend the frontcourt of the Grizzlies much better early in the game. Memphis (38-44-3 ATS overall, 18-23-1 ATS at home) was able to outscore Oklahoma City 62-48, in the paint, despite a tough night from Zach Randolph (16 points, 5-of-20 FG). Randolph got off to a nice start in the first half, but had a stretch in the second half where he missed eight consecutive shots. Despite not shooting free throws well in the regular season, the Grizzlies once again connected on a good percentage from the free-throw line in Game 3 (12-of-15).
However, the biggest reason why Memphis was able to get the win was a huge performance from its reserves, outscoring the Thunder’s bench, 34-9. If that happens again, it will be very difficult for Oklahoma City to avoid a 3-1 hole. Memphis holds a 13-6 ATS advantage (10-9 SU) in this series over the past three seasons, including 5-3 (SU and ATS) at FedEx Forum.
Although the Grizzlies are just 6-23 ATS (21%) after three straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers this season, they are also 39-24 ATS (62%) versus good shooting teams (46%+ FG) over the past two seasons.
Despite a very tough offensive night for the Thunder on Thursday, the team had a chance to win the game in the final minutes. SF Kevin Durant (33.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 4.7 APG in series) finished with 30 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in Game 3, but really struggled from the field, missing on all eight of his three-point attempts. He was getting good looks, but at one point in the second half, he got an offensive rebound and missed a two-foot shot, which showed what kind of night it was for Durant. While he struggled offensively, he played a terrific defensive game. There were many times when Durant and PG Russell Westbrook (27.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 5.0 APG in series) weren’t on the same page when trying to get each other the ball. Look for the Thunder to run a lot more pick-and-roll with their two stars, rather than posting Durant against Tony Allen. Westbrook at times was dominant in Game 3, evidenced by his 30 points, 13 rebounds, but took some bad shots when the Thunder were making their comeback.
PF Serge Ibaka (14.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 3.0 BPG) was the only other player to reach double figures for Oklahoma City with 12 points and five rebounds.
Guys like PG Derek Fisher (4.7 PPG on 36% FG in series), SF Caron Butler (4.0 PPG on 25% FG in series) and PG Reggie Jackson (5.0 PPG on 16% FG in series) all have the ability of having big scoring nights, but have all shot horribly during this series. Saturday night is going to come down to a basic part of the game for The Thunder, who simply have to hit more shots. Just like the Grizzlies in Game 1 when they shot 36% FG, Oklahoma City was in position to win despite shooting terribly (39% FG). Correct that on the offensive end and the Thunder will be in great shape to tie the series up. If not, Memphis will be one game away from clinching the series.
The inside game of PF Zach Randolph (20.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 3.7 APG in series) and C Marc Gasol (15.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.3 APG in series) get all of the talk, but PG Mike Conley (18.3 PPG, 8.7 APG, 5.7 RPG in series) has been the star of this team in the playoffs. In Game 3, Conley scored 20 points while dishing out three assists, and his three-pointer in overtime gave the Grizzlies a 90-88 lead, helping them pull away for the victory with another layup. He is not as athletic as Westbrook, but he plays under control and does not force things. Gasol had another solid game on Thursday with 14 points and eight rebounds, but did not touch the ball a lot in the final seven minutes of regulation when the Thunder made their comeback. The Grizzlies are at their best when the offense is running through Gasol, so look for Memphis to get back to that on Saturday.
The bench play of SF Tony Allen (12.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.3 SPG in series) and PG Beno Udrih (9.7 PG, 3.0 RPG in series) was the key in the Game 3 victory, as the duo combined for 30 points, while Allen also pulled down nine boards. Udrih hit difficult shots the entire game, while Allen was a force on both ends of the court. Getting offense from Allen is a bonus, as he has done a terrific job of guarding Durant through the first three games of this series. If the bench can continue to outplay the Thunder reserves, Memphis will be in great shape to get the victory.
8-0 L8 Totals, 14-4 L18 Picks
6-1 L7 G-Plays, +1,441 This Year
35-18 Run, +1,387 This Season
11-5 L8 Days, 8-3 L11 Guarantees
2-0 Yesterday, 8-4 L3 Days
11-3 L14 G-Plays, 12-5 L17 Picks
12-6 L18 Guaranteed Plays
6-2 Last 8 NBA Selections
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