Game 7 - Mavs at Spurs
May 3, 2014
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Dallas (52-36) at San Antonio (65-23)
Western Conference First Round
Game 7 – Series tied 3-3
Tip-off: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: San Antonio -6.5, Total: 198.5
The Mavericks look to complete a huge upset over the top-seeded Spurs in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon.
An amazing playoff series continued on Friday night, as Dallas tied up the series with a 113-111 victory as a three-point underdog. Game 6 had plenty of swings, as the Mavs took a 58-52 halftime lead, but gave it all back in the third and trailed 81-76 going into the final quarter. They regained their composure and outscored the Spurs 37-30 in the last quarter to win by two. San Antonio shot an impressive 53.3% from the field in the game while Dallas nearly equaled that by making 45-of-87 shots (51.7% FG). The difference in the game was that the Mavericks had 13 offensive rebounds compared to just six by San Antonio.
Mavs SG Monta Ellis was the high-scorer in the contest with 29 points, while each team had six players with double-digit points. PG Tony Parker (22 points) was the Spurs' leading scorer for the second straight game.
On the road, Dallas has gone 24-20 SU, but is a very impressive 30-14 ATS (68%), including 20-7 ATS (74%) as a road underdog. On the other hand, San Antonio has been one of the best home teams all season long with a record of 34-10 SU, but just 20-24 ATS.
Recent years of the matchup have been dominated by the Spurs, as they had won nine straight games SU (7-2 ATS) coming into the postseason, but have failed to cover in all six of the games in this series. But San Antonio is usually a great bet after a high-scoring game over the past three seasons, going 83-52 ATS (62%) after an Over, and 37-17 ATS (69%) after a combined score of 215+ points. The club is also 30-15 ATS (67%) after an upset loss as a favorite in this same timeframe, but Dallas is 6-1 ATS over the past three seasons coming off a close win by 3 points or less versus a division rival.
Dallas just snuck into the playoffs as the eight-seed this year and was not given much of a chance in the playoffs, but have scored 102.0 PPG on 45.9% FG against the tough Spurs defense in this series.
PF Dirk Nowitzki (18.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG in playoffs) has seemed to get better offensively in each game this series, and has put up more than 20 points in each of his past two games after failing to do so over the first four. He has hit 21-of-40 FG (but 0-for-5 threes) in those two contests, but tied his series low with five rebounds in Game 6.
SG Monta Ellis (21.8 PPG, 3.0 APG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) has scored 20+ points in his past five games while scoring a team-high 29 points on Friday. He was 11-for-22 in the game while hitting half of his shots from long-range (3-for-6). SG Vince Carter (13.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG in playoffs) has given the Mavericks plenty of energy in these playoffs, and has averaged 20.5 PPG over the past two games while hitting 14-of-22 shots (64%).
PF DeJuan Blair (6.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.0 SPG in playoffs) was suspended in Game 5, but has had double-doubles in each of the past two games he played and went for 10 points, 14 rebounds and four steals on Friday.
The Spurs have been the elite team in the NBA for more than a decade now, but are on the brink of being part of a club that is not something they want, a top-seeded team losing in the first round. Although the defense has struggled at times this series, the offense has played pretty well, scoring 100.5 PPG on 48.7% FG.
PF Tim Duncan (17.7 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG in playoffs) had a solid all-around game on Friday, scoring 16 points on 7-of-9 shooting while grabbing nine rebounds, dishing out four assists and blocking two shots. He has shot 55% FG in the series so far, but the team has lost each game where he has taken fewer than 10 shots.
PG Tony Parker (17.8 PPG, 4.8 APG in playoffs) has attempted 23 shots in each of the past two games while averaging 22.5 PPG. He did have five turnovers compared to just six assists on Friday, and has 4+ turnovers in three of the six games in the first round.
SG Manu Ginobili (17.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.8 RPG, 1.7 SPG in playoffs) had been the MVP for the Spurs over the first five games, but scored just six points on 1-of-8 shooting in the Game 6 loss, while adding five assists for the fourth straight game. He’s been terrible from long range in the past four contests though, going 4-for-22 from behind the arc.
C Tiago Splitter (12.3 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs) has been hot in the postseason, and went 11-for-12 from the foul line while scoring a playoff-high 19 points in Friday’s loss.
8-1 Sat., 14-5 G-Plays, +3,606 TY
9-2 Picks, 14-4 G-Plays, +1,907 TY
8-2 L10, 12-4 L16 NBA Picks
5-2 L7, 19-7 Run, 14-5 G-Plays
15-6 L21, 28-11 Streak, 16-5 Totals
8-3 Totals, 13-6 GPlays, 29-14 Picks
15-7 L22 Picks, 12-5 L17 G-Plays
6-3 Last 9 NBA Selections
3-0 L3, 8-4 L12 Guarantees
13-4 L17 Picks/Guarantees
3-0 L3 G-Plays, 6-3 L9 Totals
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