Everyone knows that defense takes center court in the NBA playoffs. Defense is much more important to winning a championship in all sports than offense. There has been some impressive, flashy offenses in the NBA the last few years in Dallas and Sacramento. Those teams are loaded with deep lineups with plenty of guys who can run the court and score.
So how many trips to the NBA Finals have they made? Zero. In truth, the Kings are not a bad defensive team, but my point is you often see the non-flashy, blue-collar, hard working defensive teams holding championship trophies at the end of the season.
Fans flocked hoping to see Michael Jordan throw in 45 points each night, but overlooked the fact that he was, in his prime, a brilliant defensive player. The Spurs won two NBA titles with a grind-it-out, dull offense and a choking defense. And the Lakers didn’t win a title with Shaq and Kobe until Phil Jackson arrived to teach them how to play some ‘D.'
This is why totals can be a bit over-inflated this time of the year. Totals are based partly on season statistics, such as team scoring averages home and away. Over the course of 82 games during the regular season, teams are not always going to bring the tough ‘D’ for 48 minutes, otherwise they might burn out by the All-Star break. Defense takes hard work. Sometimes if teams like the Spurs, Lakers or Pacers are up by 17 at the half over a bad team, a coach will rest his star players and reserves will go in and just mop up with tough ‘D’ as an afterthought.
On December 9, the Pacers whipped the Wizards 93-79. Notice that Washington shot .485% at Indiana. A reason why was Indiana was in control throughout and had bench players playing 15, 18, 19 and 35 minutes. Now, had this been a playoff game, do you think the Wizards would have shot 48%? Of course not. The postseason is a very different animal. Teams, especially great defensive ones like Indiana, San Antonio and Detroit, are more likely to play tough ‘D’ for the entire 48 minutes. There’s less chance of one team coasting, and no coach wants to see his players slack off in the second half of a playoff game and watch the opponents come roaring back for a stunning upset.
Notice that in the Rockets/Lakers series, the Game 1 total was 180½. After the Lakers won 72-71, the Game 2 total dropped to 176. The Kings/Mavericks total was 219 for the first two games, but plummeted 11 points to 215, 210 and 208 over the final three games. Yes, even those teams turned up the defense, as the losing team scored 79, 79 and 92 points in Games 2, 3, & 4.
This is a normal part of linemaking – making adjustments based on what is happening. If you’re a totals player, this is something to keep in mind as the games become more important. If you’re looking to play a game under the total, with certain teams and certain situations, early series games could offer better betting value before linemaking adjustments kick in.
A year ago, the Spurs went a combined 15-8-1 'under' the total during their run to the title. In the Finals, the line opened 186 and steadily dropped seven points. By the time Game 6 rolled around, the total was 179. That game went 'under' the total in an 88-77 Spurs’ win, and five of the six games between the Spurs and Nets went 'under.' Identifying good spots and linemaking value is what successful handicapping is all about.
