Dinero Tracker - Feb. 12
February 12, 2018
By Tony Mejia
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Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 4-5 | NCAA BB: 7-3
After leading the NBA day off with an in-game parlay win behind the surging Raptors, the rest of my Sunday walk through the pros was filled with unpleasant surprises. College came through at a 70 percent clip, pushing the weekend tally to 14-for-18. The NBA lock is now 18-for-27 (66.7%) since Jan. 11. Here's Sunday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):
MONDAY'S FREE SELECTION
The pick: Bulls -4
The Bulls are starting to get all their pieces back, as there's a chance Kris Dunn may even suit up and play some tonight to get his conditioning up. He'd provide a boost, but this pick is simply about riding Fred Hoiberg's new-found depth with Lauri Markkanen back from paternity leave and Zach LaVine getting more comfortable with his minutes restrictions loosening up. The Magic are still depleted and now hit the road, where it's easier to fade. This is Orlando's first game outside of Florida since Jan. 30. Ride Chicago and lay the points.
SUNDAY'S FREE SELECTION
The pick: Duke -9
The Blue Devils have been a major disappointment in that they're far too talented to be so incompetent on defense, but these are all good lessons for them to be learning with the NCAA Tournament still one month away. My expectation for today's trip to Atlanta is that they'll take advantage of Georgia Tech's offensive shortcomings to gain some confidence, find a rhythm and win by double-digits. Lay the points and ride Duke.
Result: The line dipped with the news Marvin Bagley III was getting the day off, but the Blue Devils tweaked the lineup, committed to defending and raced out to a huge edge, leading by as much as 26 points. The Yellow Jackedts went on a 15-2 run and nearly slipped through the backdoor like slimy snakes as they pressed and got free-throw misses and were one 3-point make away from breaking freebie pick hearts, but we came through alright in the end.
The pick: Penn State ML -125
The Illini fell to Wisconsin on Thursday and has largely struggled on the defensive end in their first season under new head coach Brad Underwood. The Nittany Lions have won four of five to rescue their NCAA Tournament aspirations, climbing above .500 in Big Ten play. Beating Ohio State in Columbus was the big win in that mix, while the remaining schedule following this trip into Champaign will give them four opportunities to add a quality win to their resume before the conference tournament, so it's important to get this one in the win column and continue building positive momentum. Look for Tony Carr to deliver and ride Penn State on the money line to avoid laying the bucket on the road, guaranteed.
Result: The Nittany Lions broke open a game that was basically even at the break by scoring the first 12 points of teh second half, holding Illinois scoreless for over seven minutes. Penn State held the Illini to 27.3 percent shooting in the second half.
LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK
The pick: Pacers -9
The Knicks are unsure if they'll have Enes Kanter back as he deals with a mouth injury, and they'll be breaking in newly acquired guard Emmanuel Mudiay. On the road, expect a strong game from the Pacers to produce a blowout. Lay the points and ride Indiana for Sunday's guaranteed NBA winner.
NOTE: Kanter is in, so the line dipped some. I still dig Indiana to win by 10+ For the in-game parlay, ride the over.
Result: The Pacers had this game under control throughout, led by another big night from All-Star Victor Oladipo, but obtaining the cover just wasn't meant to be. Kanter played, so this line dipped to where most pushed on the Pacers, but even that feels hollow considering they were up by as many as 20. New York never quit, getting a spark from the newly acquired Mudiay in losing only 121-113.
The pick: Loyola (Md.)/Lafayette OVER 142
Loyola guard Andre Walker scored 43 points and knocked down six 3-pointers when these teams played in Baltimore last month, but you can bank on Matt Klienewski and the Leopards to get even at home here. Take advantage of this Patriot League clash being on the board and ride Lafayette and the over for the in-game parlay.
Result: Lafayette came through, both with the win and in scoring effectively enough in the second half to comfortably get us an in-game parlay win in their 84-67 victory.
SWING AND A MISS
The pick: Celtics -4
The Celtics have a huge advantage in getting to play this one at home while the Cavs have to figure one another all out following their hectic trade deadline activity. With Kyrie Irving set to work out his latest crop of replacements, George Hill and Jordan Clarkson, I'd expect him to have a big day. Ride Boston and lay the points.
Result: While there was certainly an expectation that LeBron would do his part in trying to spoil Paul Pierce's big day in Boston, I didn't see his new teammates producing as effectively as they managed to against a Celtics team that plays so well at home. Not even a juiced-up atmosphere could prevent the Cavs from punking Boston.
PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE
The pick: Raptors ML -150/OVER 215.5
The Hornets haven't been home since Feb. 2 and will be playing in their building for just the second time in a nine-game span after returning from a Western swing where they won only at Phoenix. The Raptors have scored an average of 127.5 points in a pair of wins against Charlotte this season and should be able to get acclimated nicely here since they're used to Sunday afternoon games. Ride Toronto on the money line and back the over for the in-game parlay.
Result: Despite falling behind 10-0, the Raptors imposed their will by the end of the first quarter and coasted to a 123-103 win in Charlotte, ultimately winning every quarter. Toronto now enters the week with the Eastern Conference's top winning percentage.
Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA or e-mail him at firstname.lastname@example.org
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