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Mavericks at Nuggets
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by Tom Wilkinson

Mavericks at Nuggets ATS Picks

The freefalling Dallas Mavericks are likely headed for another loss on Thursday night as they visit the Denver Nuggets in a game that can be seen on TNT. The Mavericks have quit on this season and are actually in tank mode as they try and finish with the worst possible record they can to improve their draft position.

On the other side, the Nuggets are just behind Golden State for the top record in the Western Conference. Let’s look at Thursday’s game and NBA picks.

Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets
Date and Time: Thursday, March 14, 2019, 10:30 p.m. ET
Location: Pepsi Center, Denver, CO
NBA Odds at BetDSI: Nuggets -11, O/U 220.5
Mavericks vs. Nuggets TV Coverage: TNT

The Mavericks are coming off a home loss on Tuesday to San Antonio in a game they could have won if they had made some free throws. The Mavericks missed 11 free throws in a 112-105 loss to the Spurs. Conversely, the Spurs hit all 18 of their free throw attempts.

Rookie Luka Doncic was inexplicably 1-of-9 from the free throw line. Doncic was limited in practice due to a left knee strain and head coach Rick Carlisle said his prized rookie didn’t look right. “But he didn’t look right,” Carlisle said to the media, “He had a tough night and I probably played him too many minutes, although he is probably at about average or maybe a little under. But tough nights happen. We just have to learn from it, get better and get ready for (Thursday’s game at) Denver – another good team.”

Doncic played 34 minutes but had just 12 points to go along with six rebounds, seven assists and nine turnovers. Jalen Brunson scored a career-high 34 points to lead Dallas. The Mavericks have lost six straight and 11 of their last 12 games. “I don’t know how many games are left, I’m not counting,” Carlisle said. “But I do know there were some positives in this game — we can’t forget about those.”

Dallas is 16-17 ATS on the road with 16 games going over, 16 going under, with one push. They are averaging 107.9 points per game and giving up 109.6 per contest.

Denver is coming off a good win on Tuesday, as they routed Minnesota 133-107. The Nuggets got 30 points from Jamal Murray and the team played unselfishly, as they had 40 assists. Head coach Michael Malone was upset with his team after the loss to Golden State and told his team that they needed to play better. “The message was delivered. The guys embraced it, accepted it, owned it and went out and played tonight at a very high level,” Malone said to the media.

The Nuggets played fewer players and things worked out well. Guard Isaiah Thomas is one player who didn’t see any action. “Definitely talked to him. I’ll keep that conversation between I.T. and myself,” Malone said. “Not an easy conversation, but that’s my job. … Isaiah is a pro and was into the game, supporting his teammates.”

Denver is 23-11 ATS at home, with 18 games going over and 16 going under. They are averaging 112.3 points per game and giving up 107.3 per contest.

Key Stats

The Mavericks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 vs. the Northwest. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Nuggets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Southwest.

Looking at the total, the Over is 4-1-1 in the Mavericks last 6 road games. The Under is 17-5 in the Mavericks last 22 games following a straight up loss. The Under is 8-1 in the Nuggets last 9 overall. The Under is 4-1 in the Nuggets last 5 home games.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Free Picks

I had the Nuggets two nights ago when they hosted Minnesota and I will go with them again in this spot. The Mavericks are not even trying to win games and their best player, Doncic is playing hurt. I don’t think this one will be close, so I will lay the points at BetDSI and take the Nuggets.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets ATS Pick: Nuggets -11
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Score Prediction: Nuggets 123, Mavericks 101

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