Editor’s note: Be sure to view Jamie Tursini’s analysis each and every week on VI, but more importantly take advantage of his winning pick pack and guaranteed selections!
When you play the long grueling 82-game schedule that the NBA does, you’d think that teams would have some sort of advantage when they have more rest than their opponents? Let’s see how the season has played out thus far. Using what I call “Extreme Rest” (teams that have three or four days of rest before games).
Home teams that have had exactly three days of rest playing opponents with two days of rest or less, are only 9-10-1 (47%) against the spread as Home Favorites. As Home Dogs they are 4-4 (50%) ATS. The average total score of these games is 186.7 combined points. As of Thursday, home teams who have rested three days before hosting an opponent with less time to prepare are only 13-14 (48%) against the spread. Surprised?
How about road teams with three days rest? Fewer of these have occurred so farm but road teams are only 4-5 (44%) ATS, going 2-2 ATS (50%) as favorites and 2-3 (40%) ATS as underdogs.
However we may have stumbled onto something. The average total score of these games is 187.7 combined points per game! That’s only one more point than the “Home” example just mentioned.
So keep an eye out on the “totals” of match ups where only one team has three days rest. If it’s significantly different than 187, you may want to take a serious look.
How about match ups where a club has had four days to prepare? Well they of course happen few and far between, but they happen.
There have been a total of five games where one club has had four days to prepare for their opponent. Home favorites are only 1-1 (50%) against the spread. But home teams are 2-0 (100%) against the spread as dogs in this situation!
On four days rest the Chicago Bulls were eleven-point dogs at San Antonio on Nov. 25. They won straight up 106-99. They’re the only road team thus far in this situation.
All five games in this situation have gone over the total! The average total score of these match ups are an amazing 211.8 combined PPG! The average total “line” the oddsmakers put out is ONLY 193.5.
When any club has four days rest. It’s definitely a situation to keep an eye out on playing over the total.
