The Southwest had two of three teams in the NBA who won 60 or more games last season. However, those two teams met in the conference semis last year when the fourth seeded Mavericks defeated the top seeded Spurs in seven games. This year I expect them to meet in the finals. The remaining three division teams each have the opportunity to make the playoffs as well, with the best chance going to Houston if the Rockets can stay healthy. The sensitive side of me actually kind of wants the Grizzlies fall short of the post season just so we don’t have to watch them fold 4-0 yet again in the opening playoff round.
Dallas Mavericks – The Mavericks have stampeded through six straight 50 win seasons including last year's franchise best 60-22 record. Certainly do not see any falloff here as they actually improved the unit a little bit with the additions of Austin Croshere and Anthony Johnson from Indiana in an off-season trade. Croshere should be able to keep things going when Dirk Nowitzki is off the floor while Johnson will give Dallas a true point guard coming off the bench who is a good playmaker and also plays solid defense. The Mavericks have the deepest roster in the entire NBA so it doesn’t matter who Avery Johnson turns too, they have the talent and ability to be productive. There is some concern that the tinkering they did with the bench in the off-season may mess with the chemistry that got them to 60 wins last year and Johnson will have to again push all the right buttons to keep everyone happy. View here is that he will, and Dallas gets my call to win the division.
San Antonio Spurs – Although the projection has the Spurs finishing second in the division, I actually see them representing the Western Conference in this years’ Finals and thus washing away the memory of last season's rough ending, on their home floor no less. Last year the Spurs had the NBA’s best record going 63-19, but that did not lead to a title, and as such there has been a slight change of plans this year. Father Time is checking his watch, and eight of the Spurs will be in their thirties this year. What this means is that Gregg Popovich will have to limit everyone’s minutes during the regular season, which will likely cost them the top spot in the division. However, that plan will have them fresher when the real season starts. San Antonio is pretty much unchanged except at center where they replaced Mohammed and Nesterovic with Jackie Butler and Francisco Elson which has them breaking even offensively with a bit of an upgrade athletically and defensively. I consider Popovich to be one of if not the best head coach in the NBA as he has proven to be highly adaptable to any situation, is a solid X’s and O’s guy and he keeps the team on an even keel game in and game out which gives the Spurs a solid advantage. Basically, this is a veteran experienced championship team that is realizing this may be their best last chance to reach the summit.
Houston Rockets – In a slight modification of an old adage, if Yao and McGrady can stay healthy, the Rockets will be wealthy playoff-wise. Looking strictly at last season’s 34-48 record one would wonder just how one could call for Houston to make the playoffs. The best argument comes when considering that due to injuries Ming/McGrady only played 31 games together and in those the Rockets flew high with a 21-10 record. The Rockets added some solid talent this off-season in Bonzi Wells, Shane Battier and Kirk Snyder and they should help add more scoring variety to take some of the heat off of McGrady & Ming. Do not expect just a 90.1ppg average this year. Houston is a good defensive team (top ten last year) and Jeff Van Gundy is a solid coach that has his team ready every night and did a decent job with all the injuries last season. As long as the Rockets remain healthy I fully expect a playoff berth.
New Orleans Hornets – Last season the Hornets basically given a pass for last season due to Katrina, so all things considered 38-44 was not all that bad. Still, instead of taking a stand pat now that we are really at "home" approach they made some significant off-season moves that should help the team. (Does this sort of, well sound a lot like, what the Saints did as well, and that seems to be working) New Orleans was only 25th in scoring last year, averaging 92.8 ppg, but addressed that area with the addition of Peja Stojakovic, Tyson Chandler and Bobby Jackson. With the overall addition of talent the Hornets will have more options to use offensively mixing in some running and threes to go with the base half court set they ran the majority of the time last year. At the same time the defense should improve as head coach Byron Scott more talent and depth to work with. While not spectacular the Hornets as a whole are decent across the board without a glaring weakness at any position. I give them a good chance at the final playoff spot.
Memphis Grizzlies – If a team was ever ripe for a collapse it is the Grizzlies. Three years ago Memphis made the playoffs only to get swept in the first round. Mike Fratello was brought in to be the difference maker and to challenge for the title, but in each of the last two seasons they have got to the playoffs only to be swept 4-0 in the opening round. That has to weigh on everyone throughout the organization and the hurt is especially after last year when Memphis pulled down 49 wins and was supposedly set to change history. Add to that an off-season where last year’s starting SF Shane Battier and C Lorenzen Wright have departed, then stir in the fact that the strict Fratello is starting to wear on players whose fortunes, and things were looking bleak. The final factor in the predicted collapse is that star Pau Gasol broke his foot at the World Championships and won’t be ready to go until sometime in January. Memphis is hoping that rookie Rudy Gay will be able to step up to make a significant impact, something that is unusual out of an NBA rookie. Basically, see things being all shook up for the Grizzlies this year and the good news will be at least by not making the playoffs they won’t get swept again.
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