The Pacific presents point producing Phoenix and although the Suns are one of the Western Conference Big Three don’t see them overtaking either Dallas or San Antonio. Expect both teams from LA to made the playoffs with the Kings and Warriors each doing their best to sneak in.
Phoenix Suns – It would seem that many prognosticators are impressed with the fact Phoenix “only” lost to Dallas 4-2 in last year's Western Conference Finals. Those holding that belief cite the fact that the Phoenix roster was a bit thin and feel that if everyone were healthy the Suns would have won. I do not agree. Consider that Dallas was coming off of a seventh game win over San Antonio, a team Dallas had been unable to get past before, and were in somewhat of a letdown which to me was a bigger reason for Phoenix getting a couple of wins. With all of that’s said, of course there is no doubt the Suns are the best offensive team in the NBA, something easily proven by the fact they were 5.8 ppg better than the #2 Sonics. Everything is geared to a high octane offense from head coach Mike D’Antoni’s overall philosophies to the personnel he has available, of course led by point guard and two-time league MVP Steve Nash. (He must be doing something right if a pop tart hottie like Nellie Furtado is referencing him in a song.) Much of the high expectations come from the return of Amare Stoudemire, but he will not be fully recovered likely until the second half of the season and although he will have an impact Phoenix will still struggle against teams that can control the tempo. Still see the Suns being weak defensively and won’t improve much if any on their #28 finish from last season. Offense can and does win in the regular season, but a lack of defense will be the reason they fall short of the finals.
LA Clippers – Last season the Clippers FINALLY put what seemed to be an eternity of frustration behind them as they beat the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. This franchise had not won a playoff series since 1976 when they were the Buffalo Braves (and much of the roster had not even been born yet). More demons can be exorcised this season as they have not had back to back winning seasons since that 1976 season, but if healthy this group should have no problem posting a winning record again this year. The Clippers are solid in the frontcourt as led by Elton Brand, and have a good group of shooters who have a nice mixture of experience and youth in Sam Cassell, Cuttino Mobley, Shaun Livingston and G/F Corey Maggette. Brand is one of the top power forwards in the NBA and last season was solid averaging 24.7 pts and 10 rebounds per game, showing that a Dukie can succeed in this league. The Clips added Tim Thomas from the Suns hoping he will give the offense a bit of a boost as well. Chris Kaman is the center no one knows about playing on the West Coast, but the seven footer is probably in the top five when one considers all around centers who can put points on the board, rebound and play defense. The main weakness for the Clippers is the fact they are not all that deep, although Thomas should help in that area. LA plays pretty decent defense and last year opponents only shot 43.5% against them, fifth best in the NBA. See yet another playoff appearance this season and with the new seeding they could get home court and the 4th seed, maybe even "hosting" the Lakers.
LA Lakers – While the Lakers look like a playoff team they will need to hold on to start the season. Although he will play in the opener, Kobe Bryant is not fully recovered from getting his right knee scoped and Kwame Brown could be out the first month of the regular season with a rotator cuff injury. Fortunately they will have 11 of their first 15 games (through Nov 30th) at home, with the only road games at Golden State, Seattle, Portland & Utah. Kobe led the NBA last season in scoring, averaging 35.4 ppg although the fact he averaged 41 minutes per game could be part of the reason he needed to get his knee fixed and it would be helpful if somehow they could cut back on his minutes. LA added F Vladimir Radmanovic in the hopes of adding to the offensive output on the front line along with Lamar Odom and Brown. For the most part the depth is pretty average, and therein lies the problem, as there is a major falloff without Kobe in the lineup, as he scored over one third of the Lakers points last year. I don’t see Phil Jackson as being the zen genius that everyone else does (gee, should I start this Jordan fellow?) but does get the team to remember to play defense at times, something the club did not do before his arrival. As long as they don’t fall on their face coming out of the block the Lakers should make the playoffs again this season although a first round loss looks likely.
Sacramento Kings – Last season the Kings struggled out of the gate and were in the dungeon at 18-24. Then they traded for Ron Artest and viola’ he became their proverbial white knight, turning things around with a 26-14 record with Artest in the lineup. That run allowed the team to sneak in and earn the eighth seed in the playoffs. That was not enough to save Rick Adelman's job though, and despite making the playoffs for eight straight season Adelman was relieved of his duties. Sacramento replaced him with Eric Musselman who is expected to bring his more defensive minded schemes to the table, but a late night arrest last Friday is not a good omen. Problems with the law aside, while "E Muss" preaches defense most of the roster is used to the up tempo, lets outscore em, style of Adelman. It may take time to fit into the new game plan and not sure if some of the guys like Mike Bibby will get comfortable in time to make a playoff run. I think they will miss Bonzi Wells a lot more than they think as this is a pretty thin team depth wise and no one knows for sure how much significant production the bench will provide. Another question is how Artest will be this season. He is much like Terrell Owens in the fact he is a talented player who can create chaos in the locker room with his actions. Although this year "TO" has accelerated his antagonism, he was usually good for one season before all hell broke loose, and Artest may be on the same schedule of disruption, especially if things start out slow. See lots of intangibles that will need to go the right way for the Kings to get to the playoffs this year.
Golden State Warriors – The first thing I thought of when I heard that Golden State had rehired Don Nelson was the Redskins and Joe Gibbs. In his first year back for the Redskins Gibbs only lorded over slight improvement, and that is all I see for Nelson (who coached the Warriors to their last playoff appearance in 1994) back in Golden State. While not out of the head coaching gig for as long as Gibbs, Nelson had some health issues and turned the reigns of the Mavericks over to Avery Johnson in 2005. He seemed burned out after 27 years. Now his batteries are supposedly recharged and the 66-year-old is ready to try and lead the Warriors to the playoffs. The feeling is that the change will benefit the team because Nelson likes a more up-tempo offense than Montgomery but Golden State wasn’t all that bad offensively last year, averaging 98.5 ppg which was 11th overall. The thing that needs to be worked on is their #22 defense that allowed 99.8 ppg. The Warriors do not have much at the center spot and are pretty thin after the starting group of Baron Davis and Jason Richardson at the guards along with Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy at the forward spots. At this point see Golden State as a long shot to make the playoffs…this year.
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