Last season the entire Central Division made the playoffs and that scenario could certainly repeat itself this season. I expect the top four teams to be solid playoff contenders and Milwaukee once again fighting for the final playoff spot, and in somewhat of a shocker, the Cavaliers (if healthy) winning not only the East, but the NBA championship as well.
Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavaliers have improved their win total in each of the past three seasons, going from 17 to 35 to 42 to 50 last season. That was with a young team learning a new system under 1st year head coach Mike Brown. In the off-season GM Danny Ferry had one primary job, and that was getting LeBron James to sign a contract extension. That got done, but not for the amount of years the team wanted, but all that did was heighten the urgency for this team as "King James" is only guaranteed of being in wine and gold for another three years. Once Ferry knew his star was committed, he added some free agent talent and some decent draft picks as well. They health, or lack thereof, of Larry Hughes is key to the Cavs being outstanding instead of “only” very good. He is recovered from the injury that kept him out for half of the 2005-06 regular season, but his history indicates a new ailment is likely. If he can stay in the lineup for at least 70 games he has the talent to be the "glue" type player that Scottie Pippen was to another #23,
Michael Jordan. Speaking of MJ, last season LBJ became only the 4th player in NBA history to average 31 points, seven rebounds and six assists per game. That put him in the company of Oscar Robertson, Jerry West and Jordan. Many may doubt this call to win it all considering the NBA is a league to walking the ladder towards a title. However, consider that Cleveland was just one carom (fans are already calling it "The Rebound" in a morbid Cleveland fascination with naming their misery) away from being in the Eastern Finals last season. Had they gotten there, most agree they were a better matchup against the Heat than Detroit was, so in that respect the Cavs really were not that far away. After last season's playoff loss, others now know they have to step up to give James some help. In that light I expect Donyell Marshall (who will go to the basket more rather than camping out at the trey line), Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Damon Jones to have more productive seasons and provide the help James and Hughes need. If all this comes to fruition James will be the second member of his draft class to the NBA title in the last two years, joining Dwayne Wade.
Detroit Pistons – Hard to believe how so many have buried the Pistons just because Ben Wallace has departed for the Windy City. Unquestionably, Big Ben was a defensive presence in the middle but last season there were many times, especially in the playoffs, where he vanished, as much as a man with a hairdo like that can vanish. This Wallace, unlike Rasheed, was an offensive liability and Detroit will be more productive offensively with Nazr Mohammed and Antonio McDyess taking over in the middle. Even without Ben Wallace Pistons will still be solid defensively but some of their mystique (even with BW) in that regard was taken away by Cleveland and Miami in last year's playoffs. Detroit is still not a real deep unit but the addition of Flip Murray will help bench production. Overall, this is a proud, veteran, team that still four starters from what was universally accepted as the best group of starters in the league last year. The Pistons have been dogged much of the off-season and that should help motivate them; I project a high seed.
Chicago Bulls – Chicago goes from a team that finished last year 41-41 to one many feel is capable of winning the Central and contesting for the Eastern title. Looking back at last season little was expected from the Bulls and as such they were able to sneak up on teams for most of the season. That is not the case at all this year and all the expectations for the 2006-07 season will make the projected success difficult to attain. Yes, Chicago added Ben Wallace and that will help on the boards, thereby making an already good defensive team even better. However, this is a team that still does not have much of an interior game offensively. They have to rely on the perimeter game to win, and last year the Bulls were only #22 in the NBA in field goal percentage (44.6%). Their bench is only average and there is not a solid point scorer who can come off it and consistently make a difference While I think Chicago will make the playoffs I see them in the bottom half of the seedings and likely done in the first round.
Indiana Pacers – Conseco Fieldhouse should do brisk GameDay Program sales, as there are only few Pacers that one will remember as the roster has undergone some heavy turnover this off-season. To me Rick Carlisle is one of the NBA’s best head coaches. He has proven to be very adaptable over his career and will likely move from a half court type of game to being more up tempo with the personnel he will have on hand this season. The black cloud of injury has hung over Indiana of late, so while health is a key for every team, it is especially important here, specifically for Jermaine O’Neal and to a lesser degree Jamaal Tinsley. O’Neal has missed 54 games combined due to injury the past couple of seasons and worked hard in the off-season to better physically handle the daily pounding. Tinsley has shown flashes of being a solid point guard but has been unable to stay on the floor as he has battled nagging injuries the past couple of seasons. Indiana is decent defensively, but is not very deep and nothing special offensively as can be seen by their 93.9 ppg last year, which was 23rd in the NBA, and things do not look to have changed from those trends. Expect the Pacers to make the 2nd half of the seedings with a first round exit.
Milwaukee Bucks – Last season the Bucks finished 40-42 to get the #8 seed but the Pistons easily handled them in the first round. Overall this is a young group, including head coach Terry Stotts, that is going through the learning process together. Once they pick up on each other’s schemes, strengths and weaknesses things should improve, but that process was slowed due to some significant roster turnover in the off season. Milwaukee is the weakest team in the Central defensively while only being middle of the pack offensively as they typically live and die behind the three points arc. Michael Redd, who averaged 25.4 ppg last season, is one of the NBA’s best at the shooting guard position but the Bucks have not put the supporting cast pieces together to become a playoff power.
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