Player-based trends are simply trends in ATS or OU performance based on the performance of key players in the previous game or games. In Part I of this article, we looked at player-based ATS trends. Examples of key-player ATS trends include: The Cavaliers are 12-0 ATS (+8.5 ppg) at home after Drew Gooden had a double-double each of their last two games. The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS (-14.1 ppg) on the road with at least a day of rest after a win in which Drew Gooden scored fewer than 10 points. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS (+9.2 ppg) since February 21, 2006 at home after a win in which Lebron James scored at least 30 points. The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS (-16.2 ppg) since February 18, 2004 at home after a loss in which Lebron James shot worse than 33% from the field.

Here, in part II, we look a player-based OU trends. Often an NBA player has a poor performance that costs his team a win or a great performance that keys his team's victory. For example, a point guard may have had more turnovers than assists, a player that normally leads his team in points may have had a bad game or a player many have a double-double two games straight. It is not unreasonable to assume that a key player will respond to a strong or weak performance in their next game. For example, when a key player has more turnovers than assists, he might play cautiously and deliberately in their next game, which strongly indicates the UNDER. If a team loses, and one of their leading scorers attempted fewer than ten shots, the team often goes OVER the total in their next game, as the key player may be firing up shots.

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Knowing how key players respond to extremes in performance will make you a more knowledgeable and, hence, a more profitable NBA handicapper.

Here we present thirty examples of player-based trends that we have found -- one for each team. All of them are perfect and all of them involve the total. There are hundreds more in our database and searching through them is part of my daily handicapping routine.

BOBCATS -- The Bobcats are 8-0 OU (17.1 ppg) since December 10, 2005 at home after a loss in which Gerald Wallace took fewer than 10 shots.

BUCKS -- The Bucks are 6-0 OU (21.4 ppg) since December 09, 2002 on the road after a loss in which Michael Redd took fewer than 10 shots.

BULLS -- The Bulls are 0-9 OU (-15.7 ppg) since March 13, 2005 on the road after a win in which Ben Gordon had more turnovers than assists.

CAVALIERS -- The Cavaliers are 0-8 OU (-15.1 ppg) since March 06, 2005 at home after a loss in which Lebron James had at least 5 turnovers.

CELTICS -- The Celtics are 10-0 OU (10.1 ppg) since November 24, 2004 after a loss in which Paul Pierce shot better than 50% from the arc.

CLIPPERS -- The Clippers are 0-9 OU (-8.7 ppg) since February 27, 2004 at home with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Chris Kaman shot worse than 33% from the field.

GRIZZLIES -- The Grizzlies are 0-12 OU (-10.9 ppg) since March 16, 2004 at home with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Pau Gasol was not the Grizzlies' high scorer.

HAWKS -- The Hawks are 9-0 OU (19.6 ppg) since November 23, 2005 with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Zaza Pachulia had a double double.

HEAT -- The Heat are 6-0 OU (16.2 ppg) since November 03, 2005 with no rest after a win in which Shaquille O'Neal was not the Heat's high scorer.

HORNETS -- The Hornets are 7-0 OU (+15.9 ppg) since December 23, 2003 after a win when David West did not play.

JAZZ -- The Jazz are 7-0 OU (+18.4 ppg) since November 05, 2004 on the road after a win at home in which Carlos Boozer was the Jazz's high scorer.

KINGS -- The Kings are 0-7 OU (-11.2 ppg) since January 31, 2006 after a loss in which Kevin Martin had more turnovers than assists.

KNICKS -- The Knicks are 7-0 OU (+23.4 ppg) since November 13, 2005 after a loss on the road in which Stephon Marbury was the Knicks' high scorer.

LAKERS -- The Lakers are 0-8 OU (-13.9 ppg) since January 28, 2004 after a win on the road in which Kobe Bryant was not the Lakers' high scorer.

MAGIC -- The Magic are 7-0 OU (+16.5 ppg) since December 05, 2005 after a loss on the road in which Jameer Nelson was the Magic's high scorer.

MAVERICKS -- The Mavericks are 8-0 OU (+15.1 ppg) since December 06, 2004 after two wins in which Jason Terry took fewer than 10 shots in each.

NETS -- The Nets are 0-15 OU (-13.6 ppg) since January 01, 2005 after a loss at home in which Vince Carter was the Nets' high scorer.

NUGGETS -- The Nuggets are 13-0 OU (+14.5 ppg) since January 07, 2004 after a home loss in which Marcus Camby took fewer than 10 shots.

PACERS -- The Pacers are 0-10 OU (-7.5 ppg) since March 28, 2005 on the road after Stephen Jackson had more turnovers than assists the last two.

PISTONS -- The Pistons are 0-12 OU (-14.6 ppg) since November 20, 2002 after Tayshaun Prince shot worse than 33% from the field in their last two games.

RAPTORS -- The Raptors are 0-10 OU (-14.4 ppg) since March 08, 2006 after a loss in which Morris Peterson was not the Raptors' high scorer.

ROCKETS -- The Rockets are 0-8 OU (-17.0 ppg) since February 11, 2005 with at least a day of rest after a win in which Yao Ming shot better than 66% from the field.

SIXERS -- The Seventysixers are 0-8 OU (-15.8 ppg) since December 11, 2002 with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Allen Iverson was not the Seventysixers' high scorer.

SPURS -- The Spurs are 0-9 OU (-17.4 ppg) since February 01, 2003 on the road after a win in which Tony Parker had at least 10 assists.

SUNS -- The Suns are 8-0 OU (+22.8 ppg) since April 18, 2005 at home with at least a day of rest after a win at home in which Steve Nash had at least 10 assists.

SONICS -- The Supersonics are 10-0 OU (+19.1 ppg) since March 27, 2004 after a win in which Rashard Lewis shot worse than 33% from the field.

TIMBERWOLVES -- The Timberwolves are 0-8 OU (-17.8 ppg) since January 15, 2003 after a win in which Kevin Garnett had more rebounds than points.

TRAILBLAZERS -- The Trailblazers are 10-0 OU (+16.8 ppg) since April 14, 2004 at home with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Zach Randolph had more turnovers than assists.

WARRIORS -- The Warriors are 9-0 OU (+14.4 ppg) since December 27, 2002 with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Jason Richardson shot better than 50% from the arc.

WIZARDS -- The Wizards are 8-0 OU (+15.4 ppg) since April 07, 2004 after a win in which Gilbert Arenas shot better than 66% from the field.

I use player-based trends extensively in my handicapping simply because I believe that the performance of a single player can make the difference between a team covering and not covering the spread. When a key player has a poor performance, it is often hidden in the stats of the team as a whole. Handicapping solely from the stats of the team as a whole in their previous game can give misleading results. That is, knowing that the team committed 20+ turnovers in their last games is not as important as knowing who committed them.

Play Smart. Play Informed. Follow the performance of the individual players rather than the team as a whole.