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As January closes there is just about two weeks remaining before the All-Star break and several teams are looking to go into the break with momentum. I’ll review the upcoming schedules and take a look at where the division may be sitting while we enjoy the All Star festivities on the Feb.18.
Let’s start in the Northwest Division which brings an interesting mix of five teams and teams that are forced into sometimes unfair traveling situations based on the immense size of the region covered by the four teams. If the playoffs started today three Northwest teams would be involved but two of the teams are barely hanging on to spots and the first place Jazz are far behind the Suns and Mavericks for the home-court advantage race.
Utah Jazz (29-17 SU, 22-21-3 ATS)
The Jazz lead the division thanks to a strong start to the season going 12-1 S/U out the gate but since then Utah has essentially been a .500 team. Following are Denver and Minnesota with the Nuggets winning the Iverson sweepstakes and although both are within range of making a run neither has been consistent enough to seriously threaten Utah at the top. The Jazz finish the first half of the season with just six games over the next two weeks, the lightest load of any Northwest team. Five games are at home and although the Spurs and Bulls visit the Jazz will definitely hold a multi-game lead in the division. The lone road game is a difficult game at Phoenix but at worst Utah can continue the .500 clip that they have played since the hot start. The Jazz do not have the reputation as a great offensive team but second-year point guard Williams has led Utah to the fourth ranked scoring offense in the league but the team had not held a strong home court edge at just 10-10-2 ATS and going 7-10 as a H/F.
PLAY AGAINST UTAH: Feb. 5 vs. Chicago
The Jazz have not been a great favorite this season and tend to feature higher scoring games. Chicago is playing well and will be an underdog as Utah faces a difficult situation coming off a road game in Phoenix two days prior.
Denver Nuggets (22-20 SU, 22-20 ATS)
We caught a glimpse of what the Nuggets can do with Iverson and Anthony playing together. Unfortunately the five game win streak ha been followed up with a three game losing streak. The Nuggets have an identical S/U and ATS record this season there has been just one game this season in which Denver has won but failed to cover and just one game which the Nuggets lost but earned the cash, the opening game of the season. Denver faces a difficult finish to the first half with nine games remaining including five road games and travel required for eight of the games as there is just two consecutive home games. The Nuggets could be an exhausted team which is a bad sign when the defense already is among the worst in the league allowing nearly 104 points per game. Most of the games remaining are against losing teams sans a home match-up with Phoenix but the Nuggets will likely be overvalued at home and given the tough logistics with this stretch of games expect an upset loss or two. The Nuggets have played well on the road with an 11-7 ATS mark and need to continue to win road games to stay in the division race.
PLAY AGAINST DENVER: Feb. 7 vs. New Orleans
The Nuggets have been a better ATS team away from home and this game will follow an important and likely exhausting game with the Suns. The Suns must make their third road trip in just over a week after this contest and could be stopped by the Hornets who have been putting together solid effort and are on a 9-1 ATS run in the last ten games.
Minnesota Timberwolves (22-22 SU, 24-20 ATS)
Despite playing .500 ball and holding onto a playoff spot which most experts would say was over-achieving for this group, Coach Casey was fired and longtime Minnesota assistant Wittman has taken over. After a rocky start and two close losses the Wolves have won back-to-back games including the monumental win over Phoenix. Minnesota has eight games before the break including a critical first-half finale hosting Denver that could be a springboard into the second half. The home games left are very winnable for Minnesota who is 13-8 S/U at home this season with a 12-9 ATS mark. Minnesota needs to maintain a strong home court to stay in the playoff chase as the Wolves has struggled at home. The Wolves score much better at home with the over/under checking in at a 16/5 clip. A three-game road trip upcoming will be a big test as winning at least one game in Houston or Dallas would be big.
PLAY AGAINST MINNESOTA: Feb. 2 at New Orleans
The Wolves are just 1-3 ATS as a road favorite this season and if Minnesota survives a let-down spot against Sacramento the team will have momentum and be over-valued. Minnesota faces Dallas the next night and it will be very difficult for a team with a three game win streak, possibly just getting back over .500 to take the Hornets as seriously as they need to.
Portland Trailblazers (19-27 SU, 21-25 ATS)
Portland has been a surprise team and although the Blazers may slide to last place it has been a positive first half for the young team and 19 wins is more than some likely predicted the season total would bring. The upcoming stretch is difficult with four playoff teams in the next four games including a home-and-home with Denver and a home game against the Suns but the Blazers can take advantage of some big lines to boost a solid ATS season including going 11-12 S/U and ATS at home. The road has been tougher and the Blazers should be avoided as a favorite (1-8 ATS as a home favorite) but as a significant underdog Portland is making some noise. Portland closes the first half with four consecutive road games but stealing a win on the trip might provide some positive momentum.
PLAY AGAINST PORTLAND: Feb. 2 at Denver
Portland hosts the Nuggets on Wednesday evening and if a solid effort is given (and especially if the upset happens) this will be a tough rebound spot. The Nuggets are struggling at present and will allow scoring opportunities for the young Blazers but it will be difficult to make happen twice in a row.
Seattle Supersonics (17-27 SU, 22-21-1 ATS)
The Sonics have won four of the last six games and despite the rough start playing back into respectability is very possible even if the playoffs are not. Seattle’s problems have come on the road with just four S/U wins however the poor record has given value to the underdog Sonics as Seattle is 12-7 ATS away from home, typically staying competitive even against top opponents. Four of the next five games are on the road and if Seattle can take some of the progress from the last home stand with them there is hope for the second half. Seattle has been playing better at home recently but is still a risky proposition at just 10-14 ATS. The seven remaining games feature playoff caliber teams and it could be a time to start going against the Sonics again unless the lines remain steep.
PLAY AGAINST SEATTLE: Feb. 10 vs. Sacramento
The Sonics have been covered in recent home games, meaning this line could be modest against the struggling Kings but this game comes off a tough stretch of four of five on the road for Seattle. Although Seattle has won the last two games as a home favorite, they had lost outright the previous three instances.