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After the All-Star weekend and especially after the event in Vegas it is not unreasonable to expect a hangover affecting certain NBA teams in the first games back. Although the break serves as a nice transition and motivating factor for teams emerging in potential playoff races it can also serve as a step back for teams that were playing well and had momentum going into the break.
It will take several weeks to judge which teams made the most of the break and will get off to a strong second half but there are some immediate trends to look at in the games following the All-Star weekend of the past few years.
Although the season-long against the spread numbers will generally give a slight edge to road teams the straight up numbers generally will sit around 60 percent for home teams in the NBA (60.7 percent last season 59.1 percent this season).
Right out the gate after the break those numbers have held true for games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday after the All-Star break but once the weekend hits there has been a sharp decline for home teams in the weekend following All-Star weekend in recent years. The slump is particularly evident on the Friday schedules where during the last four seasons home teams on the Friday after the All-Star break have gone 20-23 S/U and 17-26 ATS the past four seasons.
Those games will be especially tough for teams that had to go on the road for the first game after the break and then return home for the weekend games. This season a couple of teams look to be in dangerous this positions and it may be a good time to look at the road teams, especially as underdogs given the recent history in the NBA at this juncture in the season. Be careful if you are looking at playing on home teams this weekend and be especially careful with these teams:
New Orleans: The Hornets host Seattle on Friday and although New Orleans was playing great ball before the break they face a tough post-break schedule playing in Charlotte Tuesday and at New Jersey on Wednesday. New Orleans covered in 15 of the last 20 games before the break and has public attention with improved rebounding and a great spurt following PG Paul’s return. Seattle is a terrible road team so the Hornets will be over-valued here and the Sonics have Wednesday and Thursday off making the trip a bit easier to take.
Orlando: The Magic also play two road games up North with games in New York and Detroit on Tuesday and Wednesday. The results at the Palace will impact the situation here but the Orlando hosts the Pistons for the second of an away-home series on Friday night. The Magic have been a lousy ATS team at home this season anyway going just 11-15 but this situation will provide even more difficulty given the situation. Detroit was rolling before the break with seven consecutive wins and appears to be on a mission to take charge in the East. Detroit is a strong road team with a 15-9 ATS mark and the line will likely not be too far out of control.
Toronto: The Raptors are getting attention for rising out of the struggling Atlantic division and several Raptors were involved festivities over the weekend. The first game after the break is a huge one for the Raptors hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday in a very big game for Toronto to prove itself. The Pacers face a road game in Milwaukee on Wednesday but should be ready for this match-up having crushed the Raptors in the last meeting in Indianapolis. Toronto also faces a road game on Saturday so it will be easy to overlook a Pacers team that has been a solid road performer this season.
New Jersey: With trade rumors circling the key players the Nets will host the Hornets on Wednesday and then face the improving Kings on Friday night. Sacramento won five of seven games prior to the break and beat the Nets at home earlier this season. The distractions are mounting for New Jersey and with Toronto taking grip of the division the motivation is slipping. The Nets were once a dominant home team and may still find favoritism here but this spot could be difficult as the Nets have dropped three of the last four at home.