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Ed Meyer’s NBA selections are largely based on player trends and how a team responds to the player. Below is a quick snapshot of two players and their teams’ results.
Dallas - Josh Howard
Josh Howard was drafted by the Dallas Mavericks in 2003. He was the 29th pick of the first round. He joined the Mavs in 2003-04 and has been developing into a star, increasing his minutes, scoring average and rebounds in each of his four seasons in the league.
When the Mavs win and he shot poorly, he takes a much more offensive stance in his next game. Indeed, since he has joined the Mavericks, Dallas is a perfect 16-0 ‘over’ after a win in which Josh Howard attempted at least five shots but made less than one-third of them. In this situation, Dallas has gone over by an average of 11.8 points per game.
In the last two active dates (both from this season), Josh Howard has scored 28 points on 12-of-21 shooting and 27 points on 12-of-22 shooting.
Clearly, Josh Howard has the skills to be a tough defender and rebound OR he can be a slashing scorer who is a threat from three point range.
The role he chooses will strongly affect the ‘over/under’ result of the game. When he is off a poor shooting game in which the Mavs won nonetheless, he actively pursues a more offensive role. This has produced a long string of ‘over’ tickets.
Specifically, the Mavs are 16-0 OU since the start of the 2003-04 season after a win in which Josh Howard attempted at least five shots and shot less than 33 percent from the field.
Watch for this situation to occur.
Denver - Carmelo Anthony
Like Howard, Carmelo Anthony also went in the 2003 draft, chosen third by the Denver Nuggets. He too can strongly influence the ‘over/under’ result of his team.
The situation to look for is when the Nuggets are off a home loss as an underdog in which Carmelo Anthony had more turnovers than assists.
The Nuggets are a perfect 17-0 ‘over’ in this situation since January 2004, eclipsing the OU line by an average of 14.6 PPG.
NONE of the 17 games contains an overtime session, so the average margin of 14.6 PPG is 100 percent legitimate, with all of the points coming in regulation.
Unlike Josh Howard’s 16-0 player-based trend, Carmelo’s trend started a couple of months after he entered the league.
In 2003-04, the Nuggets were 4-0 ‘over’ their last four in this situation.
In 2004-05, Denver was 2-0 ‘over’ in this situation.
Last season, this player-based trend was a perfect 6-0 and so far this season, the Nuggets are a perfect 5-0 after a home loss as a dog in which Carmelo Anthony had more turnovers than assists.
Watch for this situation to occur.
