|
|
Betting the Top Seeds
April 22, 2007
By Keith Fredrick
VegasInsider.com
There is one major difference between the NCAA's March Madness and the NBA's April thru June madness, there are not of Cinderella's. This has become even more commonplace since the NBA switched the 1st round of the playoffs to seven games from the shorter three game series where the weaker team occasionally could steal a series. There have been eight series for each ranking (1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. .6, 4 vs. 5) since moving to seven games and in the #1 vs. #8 and #2 vs. #7 series the top seed has gone 16-0 in the series. The following are some notes regarding those series:
#1 vs. #8
Three sweeps (4-0), 2 (4-1), 2 (4-2), 1 (4-3) In those 41 total games there were 28 double digit wins (68%), while only eight games were decided by five or less points (19.5%). Overall the average win was by 13.4 points with the avg being higher in the East (15.5) than in the West (11.4).
#2 vs. #7
One sweep (4-0), 4 (4-1), 2 (4-2), 1 (4-3) In their 43 total games there were 21 double digit wins (49%), with 11 games being decided by five points or less (25.6%). Overall the average win was by 10.4 points with the average being pretty much the same, East (10.1), West (10.7).
Other Interesting Items:
Both the #1 vs. #8 and #2 vs. #7 series averaged 194 total points per game.
Both the series that went 4-3 are series being played this season, Detroit & Orlando and Phoenix & LA although only the Suns/Lakers are a realistic rematch as that series came last year.
There have been only three teams with a sub .500 record to make the playoffs during this time, all in the East. Two have been swept and the other lost 4-1.
Handicapping Notes regarding the 2007 series:
#1 Dallas (67-15) vs. Golden State (42-40)
The Warriors have actually won the last five games in this series and in their last 12 meetings Golden State is 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS, with there being 10 Overs and only 2 Unders.
Overall this season Dallas was 19-20-1 ATS as a home fav & 19-13-3 ATS as an away fav.
As a home dog Golden State was 5-3 SU & ATS with 6 Overs and 2 Unders.
#2 Phoenix (61-21) vs. LA Lakers (42-40)
Rematch of last year's #2 vs. #7 meeting with Phoenix coming back from being down 3-1 to win the series 4-3. In the 2007 regular season series the Suns were 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS.
Lakers were 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS with 5 Overs and 3 Unders in the role of home dog.
Phoenix was 19-14 ATS as an away fav and in those games had 19 Overs and 14 Unders.
After getting off to admittedly the worst start of my career in the NBA this season I have turned things around in a big way as I am 95-70 (57.6%) since December 26th of 2006. That is a solid profit margin and I expect the same in the playoffs. Looking closer, I am on 8-3 and 15-7 runs for NBA Guaranteed Plays!
Do not miss a single day of NBA Winners this playoff season!
|
|
|
 |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| ASA |
 |
| 19-11 L30 Guaranteed Plays | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
