The first round series have just begun and it’s the perfect time for taking a look at how to best map out a strategy for navigating the NBA postseason. The most important question often relates to finding value in what can be a treacherous postseason schedule if you’re not careful! Below I have honed in on a couple of key factors that can help increase profit levels on the postseason.
First and foremost when it comes to wagering on the NBA playoffs it is important to remember these two words: “action kills”. You don’t have to, nor should you bet every single game on the board. This is especially true early in the postseason when you have three or four games a night to choose from. Now I am in the business of selling picks so you might think I am foolish to tell you this or that other handicappers may chastise me for doing so.
However, here’s how I look at it. If you’re bankroll is doing well you’re with us. If you’re bankroll is struggling or goes quickly then you’re also gone quickly.
All handicappers want you to succeed and I can tell you that betting every single game on the board is not going to help you win more than you lose in the long run. It may for the short term but, in the long run, the juice (laying 110 to win 100) will eat you up because you’re going to encounter a cold streak, at some point, where you’re losing all the tight games. The fact is that you simply subject yourself to so many tight games when you bet the whole board.
As I write this article on the fourth day of the NBA postseason in 2007 I can look back and see a handful of games from the first three days that simply had no value to either side no ifs, ands, or buts about it. The NBA odds makers are simply “that good”. They’re not going to make a bunch of mistakes and they’re also going to properly call the line more times than not. That’s why they’re good at what they do and we have to be good at we do in finding the value in games that have the “beatable lines”. Now let’s look at how we go about finding those.
In betting the NBA playoffs I like to look for situations where my team is coming off of a loss (outright, to the number, or both). Now keep in mind this is only a starting point. The next key is to understand what transpired in that game. Did they have a rare poor night at the free throw line? Did they see their star player(s) sit for many key stretches in the game because of foul trouble? Did they win the hustle stats but lose because they’re opponent hit an unbelievable 60% from three point land?
These are just a handful of examples but the key point here is understanding the flow of the game in which a team lost. What were the key variables that caused the team to lose? More importantly than that, is the losing team capable of making adjustments in the next game? This is where the coaches and the experience of the players also carry a lot of weight in handicapping games.
In your research you may also find that it makes sense to play against the team that just lost in the prior game in the series. Keep in mind that sometimes one team simply outclasses another and can go on a point spread tear in a series. However, whether you’re playing on a team, thinking they are going to continue dominating their opponent, or you’re playing on a team looking to bounce back from a loss, always keep in mind that line value is a must!
A perfect example just occurred on April 23rd when Detroit beat Orlando by eight points. That was the exact point spread on the game. Why was there no value on this game to begin with? The reason is simply because the Pistons are in a different class than the Magic.
They are the better team and they were at home laying the same amount of points that they won the first game by. In that setting, why should Game 2 play out any differently than Game 1? As expected, the second game played out very nearly identical to the first and the end result is a lot of frustration to anybody that put their hard earned money down on that game. The point is that you can save yourself money and plenty of frustration by avoiding playing the whole board.
Keep in mind that it is important to look for line value. Find the games with the best line value, where teams are in strong situations, or have strong match-up edges that aren’t completely factored into the line. These situations do come up and that’s when it’s time to jump in and invest.
Best of luck throughout the NBA playoffs from Scott Rickenbach. Click to win!
