Editor's note: Joe Nelson is No. 3 in NBA proifts on guaranteed plays, hitting them at a 22-14 clip (61.1%!)
Boston Celtics
The Celtics lost at home for the first time on Wednesday night and Detroit appears not quite ready to surrender as the elite team in the Eastern Conference. Boston fans should not be too worried about the home games as the Celtics are likely to continue to pile up wins at home. The upcoming road schedule should be cause for concern however.
After Christmas Boston heads West for the first time this season playing a brutal four game stretch in five days on the coast. Although the opposition does not look fearsome facing games in Sacramento, Seattle, Utah, and Los Angeles (Lakers) this is likely to be a tough trip for Celtics-backers.
On the season Boston has played consecutive road games just twice. One of those games was one of the three S/U losses for the Celtics on the season, an overtime loss in Cleveland following a narrow win in Charlotte three days prior. The Celtics are yet to play a Western Conference team on the road this season, meaning they have faced a lighter schedule in terms of competition, but also the miles traveled have been light, with Chicago as the furthest destination. The Celtics have played just four games against Western Conference teams all season and it could be a rude awakening having to juggle less familiar opponents, considerable travel, and a holiday hangover.
The first game of the road trip on December 26th will be the start of a six-game span for the Celtics against the Western Conference. The Celtics avoid the powerhouse teams in this stretch but that means that Boston will be a heavy favorite in every game and the tough circumstances will likely lead to a tough time earning covers and possibly a few more losses added to the glowing 20-3 S/U record. After facing six consecutive inter-conference games the Celtics will then get a re-match with the Pistons. It will be a tough spot for Boston however as it comes on the road the day after playing a home game against Memphis.
Houston Rockets
Despite a promising 6-1 start to the season the Rockets have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA. Injuries have played a role but Houston is below .500 and only four teams in the Western Conference have fewer wins. After losing back-to-back home games and missing Tracy McGrady due to injury the Rockets embark on a brutal road trip sandwiched around the holiday, meaning things can get worse for this alleged playoff threat.
Houston has four consecutive road games against challenging opponents as they circle the middle of the country. Houston plays in Denver Thursday then faces back-to-back nights in Chicago and Detroit this weekend. Players will presumably travel home for Christmas and then get back to Houston before shipping out for another game on the road, in Memphis. All in all it will be a rough travel stretch for the Rockets.
It doesn’t end there for Houston however as the beginning of the years has the Rockets heading to the East coast for four of the first five games of 2008. These games do not line up conveniently however, going from Boston to Orlando, then back home to Houston for one game then back out East to face Washington and New York.
It looks like things will get worse before they get better in Houston and the Rockets are a definite go-against team right now as they are still valued like a quality team. Houston has been an underdog just six times this season and not surprisingly the Rockets are a horrid 5-13 ATS as a favorite.
Portland Trailblazers
The Blazers are red-hot with nine consecutive wins, many of those victories coming in the underdog role. Portland could cruise through the end of 2007 on a hot streak as four straight home games are on the horizon including a dream three games stretch against Seattle, Minnesota, and Philadelphia, teams that are a combined 20-55. Things will get much tougher in January however.
Portland is 11-3 at home this season and just 3-9 on the road. Not surprisingly six of the past nine games on the win streak came at home. Starting December 31st, ten of the next twelve games will be on the road for Portland. Seven of those games are against Eastern Conference teams so there will be significant travel and the Blazers will face seven consecutive games on the road in mid-January.
Portland has been a great story and the team is getting great contributions from emerging young players. Keep in mind that the Blazers have played ten of the past 15 games at home. The ATS numbers should dip in January as the Blazers will have to be valued like the playoff contending team that they currently are.
