Cavs can still repeat in East
January 30, 2008 By Joe Nelson VegasInsider.com
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With the Celtics cruising to an incredible start to take command of the Eastern Conference and the Pistons re-asserting their stake as an elite team, the Eastern Conference Finals appear to be set. The teams have split two exciting regular season meetings already with the road team emerging victorious in both and the gap between Detroit and the current #3 team in the conference Orlando is close to five games.
The Magic had a hot start but are starting to show some weaknesses and appear to be a nice turnaround story, but hardly a deep playoff threat. The Heat theoretically would be a playoff threat with Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal but that is a miracle short of happening with Miami’s 9-34 record. The Bulls were supposed to be the next ‘it’ team in the Eastern Conference but injuries and turmoil have ruined their season. Toronto and Washington have nice teams but both struggle away from home and appear to be strong candidates for first round exits. So that’s about it in the Eastern Conference right?
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The forgotten team is of course, last year’s Eastern Conference champions, the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland is 24-19 as we approach the halfway point of the season. The Cavs are pretty much a lock to make the playoffs, but sitting seven games behind Detroit in the Central Division means that the bracket may not lineup favorably. However, don’t forget that the Cavs did not win the division last season either and it is certainly a strong possibility that Cavs will be a very tough out in playoffs. Cleveland is likely a better team than the current record indicates and a great finish should be expected.
Only Boston and Detroit have better home records than Cleveland in the Eastern Conference and recall that last season Cleveland went 7-1 at home in the playoffs before the NBA Finals. Through 43 games last season Cleveland was remarkably also 24-19. The Cavs then went on a 26-13 run to finish the season starting in February and then stormed through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs. Cleveland was the #2 seed last year but the Cavs would certainly be a tough draw if they can move up to the #3 seed by the end of the season or would pose a very big threat to Boston in a second round match-up if they stayed in the #4-5 slots.
The Cavs still own the top player in the conference with LeBron James. In his fifth NBA season, James is averaging just shy of 30 points per game while also increasing his rebounding and assist averages from a year ago. Chris Paul is generating a lot of attention and with the incredible turnaround for the Hornets and he rightfully deserves some MVP consideration, but from a numbers standpoint there’s really no comparison between James and any of the other elite players in the league.
NBA Comparison
LeBron James
29.9 PPG
7.7 RPG
7.3 APG
2.0 SPG
1.0 BPG
3.3 TOPG
Chris Paul
20.6 PPG
4.0 RPG
10.7 APG
2.6 SPG
0.1 BPG
2.6 TOPG
Dwight Howard
21.9 PPG
14.9 RPG
1.4 APG
1.1 SPG
2.6 BPG
3.3 TOPG
Kobe Bryant
27.8 PPG
6.2 RPG
5.3 APG
1.9 SPG
0.5 BPG
3.3 TOPG
Kevin Garnett
19.2 PPG
9.9 RPG
3.8 APG
1.4 SPG
1.4 BPG
2.0 TOPG
Steve Nash
17.4 PPG
3.5 RPG
11.9 APG
0.7 SPG
0.0 BPG
3.7 TOPG
The MVP voting in recent years has certainly gone outside of the box scores to some extent, but James is simply putting together an incredible season, that could only get better.
Cleveland is in this position despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers have played the 13th toughest schedule in the NBA according to the Sagarin ratings at this point in the season and have played 17 games against the top 10 teams in the league. Only four teams have played more games against the top 10, and only one team has more than Cleveland’s eight wins against the top 10 (Utah with nine). Boston and Detroit have both faced much easier schedules to deliver the strong first half records. The Cavs have played three more road games than home games and have also played 19 games against the Western Conference (going 12-7). For comparisons sake, Boston has played just 12 games against the West. Cleveland has delivered several impressive wins on the season, including a home win over the Celtics as well as road wins over the Lakers, Spurs, Raptors, and Mavericks.
The Cavaliers schedule sets up for a great finish to the season, much like last year when Cleveland went 19-8 in March and April. Cleveland finishes the season with ten of its last 16 games at home and faces only one Western Conference opponent in the final 20 games. Cleveland plays in Houston next Thursday (Feb. 7), and that is the final road game of the season against a Western Conference opponent. You read that correctly, Cleveland plays zero games out West after the All-Star break. Boston plays ten games out West, Washington plays seven, Toronto and Detroit both play five (Orlando also will have completed its Western Conference road games). That is a huge advantage in the most taxing time of an already long NBA season and Cleveland could really make up some ground and build some momentum down the stretch.
The Cavs have also been beset by injuries this season with Anderson Varejao, Aleksandar Pavlovic, and Donyell Marshall currently out of action. All three are possible to return in the coming weeks and could provide a boost down the stretch. If you add it all up Cleveland remains a team to watch out for and the schedule could provide the Cavs with a great run this spring and possibly set up another strong showing in the playoffs.