Editor's note: Joe Nelson is currently on a 5-0 NBA run and is 11-5 in his last 16 Guaranteed NBA Picks on VI.
The last month has featured the added difficulty of exhausting injury reports interfering with handicapping the NBA. In the short-term an injury is not often as detrimental as it would seem as NBA teams are loaded with talented players that are waiting for an opportunity to get more playing time. Often when a star player misses a game the line can be over-adjusted and the short-handed team can put together a solid performance. Over a longer period of time however, an injury can be a major hindrance to a team’s success, but in some cases it can actually improve a team by a change of style or opening up scoring opportunities for others. By breaking down some of the current injuries and the results of teams with different lineups, some cues can be learned for dealing with injured players and injury-adjusted lines as the season progresses.
San Antonio Spurs – G Tony Parker: If a college team loses a point guard it can be a severely debilitating situation but in the NBA there are plenty of veteran guards that can fill the role. Spurs reserve veteran Jacque Vaughn capably handled the bulk of the duties in the first two games of Parker’s absence, even scoring 17 points in a win over Phoenix. The Spurs acquired veteran Damon Stoudamire to start the next three games but he has had limited effectiveness and Vaughn was back in the starting lineup last weekend as he has been more productive. In all, Parker’s injury has not had a great impact yet with the Spurs going 4-2 S/U and 3-3 ATS. Vaughn is scoring nearly ten points per game and Manu Ginobili has picked up some of the scoring void going for 19 or more points in four of those six games. The record without Parker can not be given much weight as this has been one of the toughest scheduling stretches of the season for the Spurs as all six games have been away from home. There is not currently a timetable for Parker’s return as he rests and recovers from a bone spur in his heel. When Parker missed four games in December the Spurs went 1-3 however so negative trends for the Spurs could emerge after a longer period of time.
Los Angeles Lakers – C Andrew Bynum: The third-year center was in the midst of a breakout year averaging 13.1 points per game and double-digit rebounds but his knee injury will sideline him for at least another month. The Lakers initially struggled, losing four of the first six games after his injury with just one cover in that span but things are turning around. Los Angeles has won six of the last eight games with a 7-1 ATS record and the acquisition of Pau Gasol has paid immediate dividends as he has joined the team for the last four games, averaging nearly 20 points per contest. The winning has come through a challenging part of the schedule as well as the Lakers are currently playing through their longest road trip of the season. Overall Los Angeles is 8-6 S/U and 8-5-1 ATS without Bynum, and the addition of Gasol will allow Los Angeles to continue to compete as an elite team and make sure that the 20-year old Bynum heals fully.
Washington Wizards – F Caron Butler: The injury to Gilbert Arenas earlier in the season received considerably more attention, but Butler’s injury is likely more significant to success of the Wizards. Butler has missed seven games this season and the Wizards are 1-6 S/U with a 2-5 ATS mark. After sitting three games with his hip flexor injury, Butler attempted to return but he was ineffective, scoring just 23 points in two games and has returned to the sidelines and will likely be out until after the All-Star break. Butler is a huge part of the scoring for the Wizards and his injury is devastating, but keep in mind that Washington has played six winning teams in the six games he has missed. This could be a case of over-adjustment as many have seen the Wizards struggle without Butler but the absence has coincided with one of the toughest stretches of the schedule. The Wizards should match-up better in upcoming games and the team without Butler may be worth a look as the value is likely going to be very strong.
Indiana Pacers – G Jamal Tinsley: The more conspicuous injury is not to Pacers All-Star forward Jermaine O’Neal. Jamal Tinsley plays a vital role for the team and O’Neal has missed so many games in the last four seasons that he has been hard to rely on. The Pacers are 7-10 S/U but 10-7 ATS in games O’Neal has missed and without Tinsley Indiana has managed to go 5-7 S/U and 6-6 ATS. Indiana actually went 2-7 S/U in the first nine games that Tinsley missed this season but a recent win-streak without Tinsley can be attributed to the play of Travis Diener. In his first season with Indiana Diener is averaging just 6.0 points per game for the season but in the last nine games that figure surges to 10.6 as his role has expanded with Tinsley out. Indiana appears to be a team that has figured out how to cope with the injuries though it took some time and some losses to get there. Expect the record to improve for the Pacers in the second-half of the season.
Dallas Mavericks – G Devin Harris: The Mavericks are accustomed to being such a deep team that injuries can be survived, but with Harris out and Jerry Stackhouse also missing eight of the past nine games the Mavericks have struggled against the spread. Dallas is 2-5 ATS without Harris and 2-5-1 without Stackhouse. Even though the S/U numbers are still respectable the Mavericks did lose to bad teams like New Jersey and Milwaukee in the past two weeks, something that should not happen with a full strength Dallas team. Harris has become a key player for Dallas and the Mavericks are actually 2-7 ATS in the last nine games that he has missed this season as the fourth-year guard averages over five assists per game and 14.4 points while also contributing on defense with steals. The injuries for Dallas do not appear to be long-term but the Mavericks have shown that they can be a poor team to back short-handed as they have not been able to cover many of the customary large spreads.
Charlotte Bobcats – F Gerald Wallace: The Bobcats have been lost without their leading scorer Wallace who is averaging a career high 21.2 points per game. Charlotte has already been undermanned this season with several off-season injuries but losing Wallace has led to three losses and another loss which he played at less than 100 percent. Charlotte has faced a tough part of the schedule but the Bobcats will be in trouble if this injury lingers. Charlotte has lost by double-digits in all three games that Wallace missed. Attempting to fill the void is rookie Jared Dudley, but as a starter in those three games Dudley managed to score just 15 total points and has not contributed enough on the boards to help the cause.
Boston Celtics – F Kevin Garnett: The biggest name on the injury report has had a surprisingly limited impact in absence. Boston has won five of the seven games that the MVP candidate has sat out and a big reason for the solid 5-2 ATS record is that the lines have been severely adjusted with a big star player sitting out. Before Garnett’s injury the Celtics had been favored by at least six points in every single home game. In the last two weeks with Garnett on the bench Boston has played twice as a home underdog and also played and covered as a road underdog in Cleveland. Playing two of the worst teams in the league Miami and Minnesota, the Celtics were just slight road favorites despite routinely playing as big road favorites early in the season. There is no question that Garnett is a great player that helps the Celtics immensely but this is an example of overreaction to an injury as the lines have been severely adjusted with KG out.
Cleveland and Chicago are both enduring injuries to multiple players at this point in the season and results have been inconclusive due to the great variation in lineups sent out in the last several weeks. Keep an eye on both squads as trends could emerge with a greater sample size without a certain player once more consistent lineup cycles emerge.
Houston is an example of team that is playing well right now regardless of who is on the court. Houston went 8-4 S/U and 9-3 ATS without star Tracy McGrady but since his return the winning has continued. Though it can be frustrating to have uncertainty with the lineups of several teams and delayed lines coming out there can be advantages to dealing with teams with injuries if the impact and adjustment can be properly measured.
