Editor's Note: Joe Nelson closed the first-half of the NBA season on a 10-2 run at Vegas Insider! Click here for winners!
Three teams are currently tied for the final two spots in the Western Conference with Denver, Houston, and Golden State sitting at 32-20. Although the Eastern Conference will likely push a couple of teams with losing records into the playoffs, the Western Conference is likely to leave home a team with an excellent record. The Warriors were the story of the second-half of last season with their surge into the playoffs and first-round upset of the top seeded Mavericks. Despite all that good fortune, Golden State faces the toughest road ahead and could be the team left out this season.
Although they currently sit in fourth place in the Southwest Division, the Rockets have earned the 32-20 record through one of the toughest schedules in the league. Houston has played two more road games than home games so far this season and also played 31 games against the Western Conference already. The Rockets took a nine-game win streak into the All-Star break and the Rockets feature one of the best defenses in the league, allowing an average of just over 92 points per game.
Now is the time for Houston to build some separation from the rest of the playoff contenders as its schedule will be favorable in the coming weeks. Eleven of its first 15 second-half games are at home and ten of those tilts are against the East. Houston should be in strong position entering April and at just four and a half games behind New Orleans to lead the division the Rockets can realistically better their position within the division and have an outside shot at contending for the division title. The bad news for the Rockets is the closing schedule in April. Seven of the final ten games are on the road out West although the Rockets do have four games against teams that will likely be in tank mode facing Seattle and the L.A. Clippers each twice in the final seven games.
The Nuggets are just 11-14 in road games this season but a dominant 21-6 home record can offset some of the travel troubles as the mile-high air always makes things tougher on opponents. Denver was just 6-4 heading into the All-Star break but the Nuggets played seven of the last ten on the road picking up impressive road wins in Cleveland and Portland. Denver has gone 15-6 against the Eastern Conference so there is some concern about Denver heading into a playoff series or needing to win against top Western teams down the stretch.
A big edge that the Nuggets have is that they are just a game and half out of first-place in the Northwest Division and the Nuggets can secure a playoff spot by passing Utah where as both Golden State and Houston will likely need to rely on positioning overall within the conference. Denver does play more road games than home games in the second half but many of the toughest remaining games will be at home. The Nuggets also have a great history as a second-half team under Coach Karl.
Golden State starts the second half with five of the first six games at home, but a brutal stretch of 13 out of 19 on the road could spell trouble in March and early April. Their final 19 games on the schedule for the Warriors are all against Western Conference teams so it could be a very difficult finish to the year. Golden State does have four of its final five games of the regular season at home, but by then it may be too late. The Warriors are the highest scoring team in the league, but the home record has not been as dominant as many of the other Western Conference teams and the Warriors entered the All-Star break covering the spread in just two of the past ten games…perhaps an ominous sign of things to come.
The Warriors have been a resilient group however so Golden State should not be counted out. The Warriors started the season 0-6 and have rebounded nicely. Golden State has only lost back-to-back games once since its losing streak to start the season. The Warriors are 6-2 in division games against teams they may be competing against for playoffs spots. The road ahead may be the most difficult for the Warriors but they proved they are capable with the great finish last season.
Although the focus right now is on these three teams that are tied, it certainly will be within the realm of possibility that all three of these teams move up into playoff position and one of the other contenders falters. The Lakers, Suns, and Mavericks have all made big trades which could pay big dividends but sometimes chemistry issues fail to sort out quickly and a slide from one of those teams is a possibility. New Orleans had a great first half and features a fantastic record but New Orleans is a young team that has not been in this position of facing pressure-packed games in a stretch run and the Hornets played a very weak first-half schedule.
The defending champion Spurs have also shown some signs of age this season and San Antonio faces a very difficult finish to the season. Utah is sometimes the forgotten team in the conference and although the Jazz were conference finalists they are just a two-game division swing away from missing the playoffs despite a strong first-half. It is also too early to rule out Portland, as a young improving team with a great home court edge could also sneak into the picture despite sitting on the outside at this point in the season.
