The slugfest out West continues on Sunday with two afternoon disputes involving playoff implications. Eight more games will add to the already full day of hoops action but let’s first dial into two ABC nationally televised events beginning at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Adding to what my colleague Chris David explained in Friday’s tip sheet, favorites increased the straight up record to 32-14 (70%) since tallying results from Monday (favorites went 9-2 SU on Friday but went sour with an 0-6 SU slide on Saturday).
Televised Tip-Off
Golden State at New Orleans
The Warriors (46-30 straight up, 34-42 against the spread) enter their fourth and final road contest this week, a stretch that has seen the squad accountable for a 1-2 SU and ATS record. Golden State is 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in its last nine versus teams playing with a winning record. Back-to-back defeats in San Antonio (116-92) and Dallas (111-86) have been responsible for the Warriors’ most recent losses versus quality opponents.
For No. 1 seeded New Orleans (53-22 SU, 46-27-2 ATS), a 16-4 SU run has kept the Spurs and Lakers at bay for the time being. What’s more impressive is the Hornets 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS performance in their recent six-game road trip. Three of those five wins where manufactured from teams playing with a winning record (Orlando, Toronto and Cleveland).
New Orleans’ last blowout ‘W’ against New York (118-110) on Friday marked the sixth ‘over’ play in the last eight meetings for this club on the hardwood.
The Hornets have averaged 107.2 PPG while blazing the basket with a 48.7 percent success rate from the field in their last nine wins.
It was back on Jan. 30 when Golden State walked away with a 116-103 victory over New Orleans. Covering the spread as a heavy nine-point underdog, the Warriors couldn’t be stopped from the field, firing off an effective 52 percent. In the last 10 head-to-heads, both teams have split meetings at 5-5 SU, while Golden State owns a 6-4-1 ATS edge.
The ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head contests in New Orleans.
Dallas at Phoenix
For the Mavericks (47-29 SU, 33-39-74 ATS), a paring with the Suns (51-25 SU, 36-37-3 ATS) could be a gift or a curse.
Dropping six of its last nine, Dallas has sounded the alarm with concern to its No. 7 seeded positioning. The Mavs are only a half-game ahead of Denver and with contests against Utah and New Orleans still left on the schedule, a very interesting close to the season is in place.
It was less then a month ago that critics where blasting Phoenix’s choice in obtaining Shaquille O’Neal. The Suns are building upon an 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS run in their last 14 games and O’Neal has put together solid outings in his last 10 appearances. The ‘Big Fella’ has averaged 14.7 PPG with 10.9 RPG during the stretch.
The biggest news circulating around Dallas was Dirk Nowitzki’s leg and knee sprains and its effect on the club. In the five meetings that Nowitzki has missed because of injury, the Mavericks have gone 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. Dallas has surrendered 104.2 PPG (compared to its seasonal 95.8 PPG allowed) when Nowitzki has been a spectator this season.
And while the Mavs own a league, second best 31-7 SU home record, their 16-22 SU and 17-21 ATS docket on the road has been damaging to say the least. Complicating matters (especially for backers) is Dallas’ 7-12 ATS record on the road versus teams with a winning record.
Phoenix currently owns a 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS billing in its last four meetings against Dallas.
With the Suns shooting for 117.2 PPG in their last five games, the Mavericks recently patchy defense (allowing 103.2 PPG in the last five) will be put to the test. Dallas is 9-17 SU this season when it has allowed opponents to score double-digit figures.
With Phoenix’s dogfight against Houston for the No. 5 spot and Dallas’ mission to stick inside the playoff bubble, expect this contest to become a war of attrition.
Most books have opened the Suns as five-point with a total still pending.
Bonus Games
L.A. Lakers at Sacramento
The Lakers continue the fight in the West, going 7-3 SU in their last 10. As competitive as L.A. has been in the playoff race, backers have struggled down the stretch. The Lake Show has tallied up five straight ATS losses and are 10-4 ATS in the last 14. Sacramento will look to bolster its 24-13 SU and 22-15 ATS record at home. Looking for their fifth win in six contests, the Kings are 3-2 SU in their last five versus teams with a winning record. One trend to note is that the Lakers are 12-4 ATS on the road versus teams with a losing record. Bodog.com has installed Sacramento as a 6 ½-point ‘dog, with a total sitting at 223.
Houston at L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have shot 37.5 percent in two losses at home versus the Rockets this season (0-2 ATS). In their last 10 head-to-head meetings, the ‘over’ is 7-3, while the road team has gone on to accumulate a 17-5 ATS record in the last 22. Currently the No. 6 seed in the West, Houston is 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS in their last five versus teams with a losing record. The Rockets are an average 8-7 ATS on the road versus teams playing with a record under .500. In the last 10 head-to-head meetings the favorite has manufactured a 6-4 ATS record. Most books have installed the Clips as 7 ½-point underdogs with a total set at 186 ½.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
