When we think of Orlando we think of Dwight Howard’s double-double figures and Hedo Turkoglu’s deadly three-point range. But on Wednesday, it was Rashard Lewis that helped put the Magic back on the map.
Lewis contributed a career playoff-high 33 points in Game 3, helping his team outmatch Detroit by the final of 111-86. Covering the five-point spread was a breeze and total players on the ‘over’ breathed a sigh of relief when the Magic put together a 38-point fourth quarter effort, pushing the final score to a total of 197 (most books closed the door at 187).
And it wasn’t just Lewis who donated his talent on the floor. With an Orlando squad who ranked fifth in league, shooting 47.4 percent from the field during the regular season, starters and bench player alike supplied a constant flow of accurate shots.
The Magic finished the evening off shooting a laser guided 53.8 percent from the hardwood. Mix in 11 made three pointers in 24 attempts (45.8%) and Orlando emerged with lethal accuracy from all spots on the court.
Orlando logged 111 points in Game 3, veering not far from the 105.3 PPG that the team has scored in its three wins versus Detroit this season (including the playoff victory on Wednesday). This perfuse scoring drops off when taking four defeats into account. Orlando is averaging only 95.1 PPG in the seven games against the Pistons, with 97.5 PPG originating from regular season.
Detroit has allowed 5.2 PPG more then its seasonal average (90.1 PPG) versus Orlando in the postseason. But if we remove ourselves from the head-to-head matchup analysis for a moment, we can see that the Pistons are still top heavy on ‘D’, ranked second with 87.9 PPG allowed throughout the playoffs. Allowing a 31 three point percentage speaks volumes in itself.
During the season, Detroit was credited with an ‘under’ record of 45-3-1. While five of nine games has dipped ‘under’ the total set by books this postseason, many bettors can’t equate this to the same success during the regular season. However, it’s in agreement that backers can’t argue the Pistons’ 6-3 against the spread record.
One concern for the Pistons’ is fellow teammate Chauncey Billups’ (15.8 PPG, 5.7 APG) status for Game 4 after straining his hamstring in an awkward fall on the court. Taking precautionary measures, the team scheduled out an MRI to be performed on Thursday with results still pending. Billups finished the regular season with 17 PPG and 6.8 APG.
Detroit entered the playoffs with one of the best home ATS records versus teams with a winning record (over .500). The teams’ 16-6 ATS performance in this situation has given way for many backers to continue wagering on the Pistons.
The Magic have been able to register higher numbers in ‘07-08 on total plays. With most books listing the last three games anywhere from 189 ½ down to 185, Orlando has seen the total go ‘over’ that 185 mark for a high 89 percent of the time. While the numbers drop significantly (as expected), the Magic have been firing ‘over’ 200 points (total combined score) 49 percent of the time and finally ‘over’ 210 only 38 percent. The moral of this story is that the Magic’s 104.5 PPG overall this season has given rise to a decent percentage of ‘over’ games (given that Orlando is an Eastern Conference team of course).
While books haven’t installed an opening line as of Thursday, Orlando is 5-5 ATS this season when the spread has been set from 3 ½ to six points at home. If the line is adjusted a half point up this time around, it’s worth noting that the Magic are 8-5 ATS at home with the spread ranging from 6 ½ to nine.
Giving up 111 points in Game 3 was the first time that Detroit surrendered triple-digit figures throughout the playoffs (the only team who hasn't allowed 100-plus points in the playoffs).
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com
