If you’ve been wagering on the NBA playoffs, then you’re already aware of the dominance put forth by the home clubs.
The host has opened up a 15-1 straight up and 13-2-1 against the spread mark after 16 games and that includes a perfect 4-0 mark left by the Hornets and Spurs in this series.
After four games, New Orleans and San Antonio are deadlocked at 2-2.
Game 5 is set for tonight from “The Big Easy” and while the Hornets looked vulnerable in their visit to Texas, most would expect the West’s second-seed to turn it around at home.
Do the books still believe in New Orleans, or do they feel the defending champions have weathered the storm?
 |
|
| Greg Popovich is hoping Tony Parker can heat up in the Big Easy. (AP Images) |
|
New Orleans has been tabbed a three-point favorite for Game 5, which was a similar number for the first two games played in Louisiana.
“Second-guessing oddsmakers isn’t a good practice to get into as a handicapper, but its amazing how everybody forgot about the Hornets’ performance in their two home games in this series,” said VI handicapper Matt Moore.
The Hornets ripped the Spurs in Game 1 by 19 points (101-82) and 18 (102-84) in Game 2. Surprisingly, San Antonio led in the first half of both games in New Orleans but was outscored by 23 (56-33) and 19 points (60-41) in the second stanzas of each loss.
Moore added, “After watching the Spurs counter with a pair of double-digit home victories against the Hornets in Game 3 and 4, it’s hard not to question the Hornets’ confidence. However, this is a team that has dominated teams in front of their rowdy fans and most would expect the crowd to be juiced for a key battle.”
Byron Scott’s team owns a 35-11 SU and 30-16 ATS mark at New Orleans Arena this year, which includes a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS mark in the playoffs. Four of the five wins have come in double-digit fashion too.
The Hornets have dropped three straight games in a row this year on two occasions, with the last skid happening between Feb. 22 and Feb. 25.
San Antonio has been consistent on the road (23-22 SU, 16-29 ATS) this year but it’s been hit or miss in the playoffs (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS). The Spurs lone win came by 16 points (115-99) in Game 3 at Phoenix but they followed that up with another double-digit setback to the Suns in Game 4 (105-86).
Both the Hornets and Spurs have shot well in this best-of-seven series, which has helped the ‘over’ go 2-1-1. The winning team has busted the century mark in every game and that may come as a surprise with neither team getting to the free throw line regularly.
The total on this series had jumped from 183 in Game 3 to 189 in Game 4 after the two clubs combined for 209 points (110-99) in the third installment. After watching 180 (100-80) points light up the scoreboard in Sunday’s match, the ‘over/under’ on Game 5 is down to 186.
Tim Duncan finally stepped up for the Spurs, posting 22 points, 15 boards, and four blocks in Game 4. Tony Parker (21) and Manu Ginobili (15) combined for 36 points in San Antonio’s win on Sunday. Chris Paul (23 points) led the charge for New Orleans again, but nobody on his team could hit a shot (40%) and the Hornets shot a series-low 12 free throws.
It appears that Spurs’ success is going to come from beyond the arc. During the regular season, the team averaged 19.6 attempts from downtown, but that number has jumped up to 27.3 in this series alone. The club has managed to hit 35.7 percent (39) of its shots from 3-point land in the four games.
Gamblers should be aware that even though home teams have dominated in the second round, San Antonio has been a money team on the road in the playoffs in recent history. In the last three appearances in the conference semifinals that the Spurs won, all three series (2003, 2005, 2007) were closed out in six. Last year, the club went 7-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS on the road in the playoffs. Also, defense was stressed as the ‘under’ compiled a 7-2 mark. This year, the ‘under’ stands at 2-1-1.
Tip-off is slated for 9:35 p.m. EDT with TNT providing national coverage.
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
