| 2007-08 Head to Head Meetings |
| Nov. 13, 2007 |
San Antonio (-8) 107 at Los Angeles 92 |
OVER 198 |
| Dec. 13, 2007 |
Los Angeles (-5.5) 102 vs. San Antonio 97 |
UNDER 200 |
| Jan. 23, 2008 |
San Antonio (-7.5) 103 vs. Los Angeles 91 |
UNDER 196 |
| Apr. 13, 2008 |
Los Angeles (-8) 106 vs. San Antonio 85 |
OVER 187.5 | |
How they got here: San Antonio (64-38 straight up, 42-48 against the spread) had an easier time in the first round than expected, disposing of Phoenix in five games. Next, the Spurs fell into a 0-2 hole against the Hornets, but they won all three home games and then sent the Hornets packing by capturing a 91-82 win in Game 7. Gregg Popovich’s team took the money as a 4 ½-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a plus 160 return.
Los Angeles (65-27 SU, 54-35 ATS) swept Denver in the first round, cashing tickets in all four games. The Lakers took out Utah in Round 2, although they needed six games to send the Jazz into vacation.
Gambling Notes: Most books have installed the Lakers as seven-point home favorites for Game 1. The total is 196 and San Antonio is plus 250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $250). L.A. is minus 220 for the series, while the Spurs are plus 180 on the comeback.
Phil Jackson’s squad owns a 7-2-1 spread record in the playoffs, including a 2-0-1 ATS mark as an underdog. The Lakers have been monster money makers on the road this season, compiling a 30-14 spread ledger. They have seen the ‘under’ go 25-21 in their road games, while the ‘over’ has hit at a 24-21 clip in their home outings.
San Antonio has produced profit at home, posting a 25-18 ATS record. However, the Spurs have burned their backers on the road with an abysmal 17-30 ATS mark. They have watched the ‘under’ go 52-40 overall, 28-18 in their road assignments.
Outlook: The key to this series will be how the Lakers defend Tim Duncan. Will the Big Fundamental get Pau Gasol and/or Lamar Odom in foul trouble on a regular basis? Will the big bodies off the bench – Ronny Turiaf and D.J. Mbenga – be effective against Duncan?
Obviously, another huge matchup is that of Bruce Bowen defending Kobe Bryant. Bowen has been one of the league’s premier defenders for more than a decade. If the crafty veteran has lost a step, he makes up for it with his intelligence. Bryant will get his points, but don’t be surprised if Bowen forces him into shooting at a mediocre percentage.
Future Advice: I love the Spurs in this series, especially at the generous price in the plus 180 range. They have perhaps the best power forward ever, a great coach and a nucleus that’s been intact for three of their four NBA titles in the last nine seasons.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.