The Lakers and Celtics open up Game 1 of the NBA Finals tonight and while the majority of fans are looking forward to the old school rivalry and an exciting series, recent history has shown us that the opener is usually a clunker.
“Commissioner David Stern and the NBA can only blame themselves for lackluster efforts in recent Game 1s of the championship. It’s understood that the television contracts are the bread and butter for most professional sports, but this series should’ve realistically started on Monday or Tuesday at the latest,” said VegasInsider.com handicapper Matt Moore.
“The Lakers haven’t played in a week and the Celtics have been off for six days. In my opinion, anytime you give a team time to prepare, it always helps the defense more than the offense. When you combine time off with a defensive minded club, low scoring games are very common.”
Moore’s comments are backed up with strong trends, especially in Game 1 of the finals.
| Game 1 of the NBA Finals (1998-2007) |
| Year |
Matchup |
Over/Under |
| 2007 |
San Antonio 85 vs. Cleveland 76 |
UNDER 179.5 |
| 2006 |
Dallas 90 vs. Miami 80 |
UNDER 194 |
| 2005 |
San Antonio 84 vs. Detroit 69 |
UNDER 176 |
| 2004 |
L.A. Lakers 75 vs. Detroit 87 |
UNDER 171 |
| 2003 |
San Antonio 101 vs. New Jersey 89 |
OVER 187 |
| 2002 |
L.A. Lakers 99 vs. New Jersey 94 |
OVER 191 |
| 2001 |
L.A. Lakers 101 vs. Philadelphia 107 (OT) |
OVER 191 |
| 2000 |
L.A. Lakers 104 vs. Indiana 87 |
UNDER 194 |
| 1999 |
San Antonio 89 vs. New York 77 |
UNDER 172 |
| 1998 |
Utah 88 vs. Chicago 85 (OT) |
UNDER 186 | |
Seven of the last 10 openers in the NBA Finals have gone ‘under’ the total and two of the three games that did go ‘over’ the total, barely made it. Plus, the other ‘over’ ticket (Sixers-Lakers 2001) that cashed was helped by overtime.
Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com opened the total on Game 1 at 195 points last Saturday after the matchup was set. Six days later, the number has dropped three points to 192 at most of the Las Vegas and offshore outfits.
Boston is listed as a 2 ½-point favorite and if you’re looking at trends, then the Celtics might be a solid wager. The home team is 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread. Six of the 10 games have been decided by double digits as well.
Even if you don’t like to play historic trends based on past matchups, it’s hard to ignore the recent success of the Celtics in Game 1 of this year’s playoffs. Boston has gone 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the first battle of their first three series, only receiving a scare from Cleveland (76-72) in the conference semifinals.
The Lakers have been just as good as the Celts, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS as well. Two of the three wins were by double digits, yet all three games were played at Staples Center.
One edge that leans to Phil Jackson and his troops is the ‘Rest vs. Rust’ factor. Los Angeles owns an impressive 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS ledger when playing on three days of rest of more, while Boston has gone 3-3 both SU and ATS in the same situation.
Tip off for Game 1 is slated for 9:05 p.m. EDT, with ABC offering national coverage.
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
