How much better can the excitement get during this time in the NBA? Of course other then being spot on in our selection process at the window, we’ve already seen the upset (Chicago over Boston), a young player taking charge when it matters most (the Bull’s Derrick Rose) and the likely All-Star canidate taking charge when his team needed it most (LeBron James and his 38 points, eight rebounds and seven assists).
And so the weekend has come and gone but don’t expect the action to dull down by any stretch of the imagination. With Monday comes a pivotal, two-game card to accommodate our betting appetite. And so let the games begin, or should we say continue?
Chicago at Boston (Chicago 1-0 in best of seven) – 7:00 p.m. EST
Did Game 1 prove the theory that Kevin Garnett is the difference maker for the Celtics? We all know that Boston could have used Garnett’s seasonal 15.8 PPG, but the 8.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG and just his presence from the paint to the perimeter seem irreplaceable at this point. There’s just no substituting Glen “Big Baby” Davis for Garnett’s superior skills.
But as coach Doc Rivers put it in Saturday’s postgame news conference, “Guys, Kevin is not playing in these playoffs. “I'm not answering any Kevin Garnett questions.”
And so the game must go on. But can Boston effectively turn the tables after dropping Game 1, 105-103 in overtime? For our No. 1 concern, wagering, the Celtics are 4-2 against the spread (5-1 straight up) when avenging a home loss versus an opponent this season, and are a sizzling 31-13 ATS in the last three years in this revenge spot. And after an upset loss as the favorite this season, Boston has done a solid job to bounce back as a 10-5 SU record indicates. But think twice before submitting that wager. A 6-9 ATS performance in this spot sure doesn’t do us justice.
These ATS numbers are great and all but if Ray Allen comes out of the locker room posting four points off 1-of-12 shooting (8.3%) like he did in Game 1, and Paul Pierce shanks a last second shot from the charity stripe in the fourth quarter then what good are the aforementioned trends in favor of the Celtics?
Changing sides in this discussion is a sharp and talented Chicago team who’s got its eye on the prize. It’s no secret that Derrick Rose’s 36 points, which tied Kareem Abdul Jabar’s scoring record in a playoff debut as a rookie, helped push the Bulls over the hump. But you can’t overlook Tyrus Thomas’ 16-point effort in this big ‘W’. In-fact Thomas was responsible for making six of Chicago’s eight baskets in overtime.
So can the Bulls use the same formula from Saturday and apply it in back-to-back wins at the Garden?
Again, from a standing position at the counter, Chicago has been successful in this spot in the second-half of the season, going 13-3 ATS versus a team with a winning record in the last 16. Overall, the Bulls are 20-13 ATS after the All-Star break (in the last 33 games).
But gamblers need to know that we’re treading in uncharted waters. Chicago last made a successful run through the postseason (successful defined as getting past the first round) during the 2006-07 season, sweeping Miami, 4-0. But the real feeling of accomplishment has not been seen since the end of the Michael Jordan era when it defeated Utah in the 1997-98 season.
The main point is it’s been some time since the king of the 1990’s has reached the Promised Land.
And if we are to use head-to-head trends then the case of how the Bulls can perform the upset remain difficult to envision. For example, Chi-Town is 2-7 ATS in the last nine tip-offs versus the Celtics and went 1-2 SU and ATS during the regular season. To complicate matters, the favorite is a scorching 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head contests.
It’s just too bad that these ATS numbers aren’t foolproof or indicative of what will take place come Monday evening.
Whatever the outcome of the series there’s no denying that Chicago looks to have a bright future ahead while Boston maybe on the downturn of its "rented" championship. Then again, I could be wrong.
Early lines place the Celtics as 8 ½-point home favorites. A total of 196 has remained relatively steady since the board opened up financial figures. The 'over' is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these two squads.
Dallas at San Antonio (Dallas up 1-0 in best of seven) – 9:30 p.m. EST
Our attention shifts out to the State of Texas where the Mavericks took an important first step by defeating intrastate rival, San Antonio, 105-97 in Game 1. Maybe the most important part about the first ‘W’ was grabbing it in enemy territory.
Dallas is just 2-3 SU in its last five games played in San Antonio, but bettors have seen a different side to this story. In the last 12 games played at AT&T Center, the Mavs are a money hungry, 10-2 ATS. Combine this with Dallas’ 18-8 ATS record in the last 26 overall meetings together, and a 15-6 ATS stint for the road team in the last 21 head-to-head games and these are some numbers you can take to the lockbox.
But don't we wish it was that simple?
What we have to deal with is knowledge that the Mavericks have shot a lights out, 50 percent or better from the floor in three of the last four meetings against the Spurs. Despite throwing up bricks from the arc in Saturday’s win (accounting for 29.4 percent from three range), and struggling in the last three from long distance at 30.9 percent, Dallas has managed to remain consistent from the free throw line at 85.7 percent in the last seven clashes versus the Spurs. The angle to stress is that the Mavs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests played in San Antonio.
But there is another team in this series. The Spurs are 7-1 ATS when avenging a home loss versus any given opponent this season. Expanding on this is San Antonio’s 20-8 SU record when rebounding from a SU loss the game before. This has been possible with the team working to create a point margin of 4.2 points, scoring 98.3 PPG versus giving up 94.1 PPG.
Let’s be honest, missing Manu Ginobili is huge for the Spurs. It’s a no brainer. We’re talking about a shooting guard who averaged 26.4 minutes off the bench this season, draining 15.5 PPG. But a part of his game that San Antonio misses dearly is the help on defense. And after allowing the Mavs to score a combined 212 points in the last two games (Game 1 and a regular season contest played on Mar. 4) it’s apparent that any aid on ‘D’ would be much welcomed.
Some more numbers to remain serious about include San Antonio’s 21-7 record on the ‘under’ since 1996 when trailing in a playoff game and a 91-59 record on the ‘under’ in the last three years when playing against a team with a winning record. A lot of games to divulge in the latter trend but one worth noting none-the-less.
The bottom line is that San Antonio enters Game 2 with added pressure on its shoulders. There’s no way that head coach Gregg Popovich and company want to head to Dallas down 0-2.
Most books have listed the Spurs as six-point faves with a total set at 189.
And so the saga continues…
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
