If Friday’s triple-header wasn’t enough action to appease the gambling masses then Saturday’s four-game buffet should keep us coming back for more. While the Nugget’s took the 2-0 lead in their series against the Hornets on Wednesday (108-93, covering the 6 ½-point spread), San Antonio found itself on the short end of the stick in Thursday’s date. The Spurs failed miserably to find the bottom of the bucket as Dallas rallied for the 88-67 beat down.
The overall picture that was formed on Thursday was a departure from round one’s total run. As a result, the ‘over’ is now 12-9-1 in 22 games. Click here to see first round results and 'over/under' performances.
Denver at New Orleans – 1:00 p.m. EST
Not only is Denver up 2-0 in the series but a 4-1 straight up and against the spread record in its last five meetings against New Orleans speaks volumes. Praise must be given to Chauncey Billups for running the court, donating 31 points to the Nuggets’ cause. But it was a stuff defense that held the Hornets’ Chris Paul in check (registering only 14 points on 5-of-11 of shooting).
Sportsbetting.com starts our discussion of Game 3 by opening the Hornets as 4 ½-point home favorites. A total of 199 ½ has been set as the ‘over’ is already at 2-0 in the series. This isn’t far reaching from what we’ve already seen in the totals department as Game 1 closed at 195 ½ and Game 2 at 200 ½. In-fact the last 10 head-to-head meetings have had the total set at an average of just over 200 points while hovering at just below 198 in the last six.
Denver’s success will once again hinge on field goal shooting. In Game 1’s victory, the Nuggets were 38-for-75 from the wood (51%). Denver was also able to capitalize from beyond the arc, hitting 56.2 percent of its three-pointers (9-of-16). But should we really be surprised? Witnessing a 5-2 ‘over’ in the last seven head-to-head meetings only exacerbates the argument for our totals talk.
Making the case for New Orleans, who’s been a barbaric bet after a 7-11 ATS stretch in the last 18, is a 16-5 ATS record after coming off three or more consecutive defeats. But the famed Zig Zag theory hasn’t helped backers out of this hole in the first two playoff appearances.
Are we finally going to witness the Hornets bounce back at the window or is this a squad who’s destined to fall into the brink of extinction?
Several events must take place if New Orleans wants a legitimate shot at getting back into this thing, at the very least covering the spread. Improving its transitional defense is a must. A six-point difference on the fast break in favor of Denver on Wednesday isn’t something to be ignored. And turning the ball over 17 times in Game 2 has now put the total at 34 cough ups in the series.
Ultimately, home court advantage will be the key for the Hornets to get back into the action. Up 2-0 against the Spurs in the conference semifinals of the ‘07-08 playoffs, New Orleans once again found itself clamoring to pick up a win on the road. The end result was the Hornets losing 4-3 in the best of seven. New Orleans was 1-4 ATS on the road in the playoffs last season and is now 0-5 SU in the last five postseason games away from home.
Check out our stable of NBA Handicappers before making the decision to print out those winning tickets.
San Antonio at Dallas – 4:00 p.m. EST
There’s not a lot of time to gather your facts as one-day of rest in-between the end of Game 3 and the start of Game 4 gets underway on Saturday afternoon. The Mavericks decided to turn up the heat on their intrastate rival, the Spurs, on Thursday. As part of the pair of blowout games that day (Boston-Chicago contest being the other game), Dallas not only shot 47 percent from the field but received help on the boards when it outrebounded its opponent, 51 to 41.
The best way to describe the Mavs’ home stands during recent playoff games is status quo. Since the ’05-06 season, Dallas is 11-5 SU but an average 8-8 ATS in home games during the postseason. Narrowing down the time frame, not much changes as the Mavericks are still just 3-3 ATS in their last six playoff games at American Airlines Center.
In light of the 88-67 blowout in Game 3, most books have cut Dallas down a half-point from its last outing to a current 4 ½-point favorite. An installed total of 188 is three points lower then Thursday’s closing number which ended up as an ‘under’ play. Both teams haven’t showed inspiring numbers here as San Antonio is 12-10 on the ‘over’ and Dallas 7-6 on the ‘over’ when the total has been set at 185 to 189 ½.
It’s been discussed before but with All-Star guard, Manu Ginobili out for the season the Spurs take on a different look and feel. This season alone, San Antonio is 21-14 SU without Ginobili in the lineup, but a 16-18 ATS disappointment being spread across the counter is something to take a hard look at.
Making matters worse is the Spurs 9-19 ATS record in the last 28 head-to-head meetings.
Check out these following stats:
-- San Antonio shot just 32 percent from the field (27-for-78) in Game 3, a series low for the team so far.
-- Heaving up 17 three pointers on Thursday resulted in an 11 percent stat from beyond the arc and 10 assists versus Dallas’ 20 displayed offense inferiority.
-- The Spurs were out blocked two to eight in Game 3. In relation to offense, or lack there of, San Antonio’s highest scorer was Tony Parker with a grand total of 12.
Some more numbers to contemplate are the Mavericks 106.2 PPG scored at home during the regular season versus only 97.3 PPG on the road. That trickles down to 94.5 PPG scored in Game 1 and 2 of the playoffs thus far. And then there’s Dallas’ 17-16 SU and 14-19 ATS stint this season when coming off one-day of rest. Since we’re on that topic, San Antonio has benefited from the one-day off with an unconscious 23-9 SU record followed by a 18-13 ATS record.
Closing out some more stats and trends is the Mavs’ smoking 15-1 SU run accompanied by an 11-5 ATS performance in their last 16 home games (including Thursday’s home stand). A 10-6 record on the ‘over’ is added incentive in the same 16 home games.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com
