The party will get started on the East Coast, but it’s out West where two teams are facing elimination and an end to the season.
Projected to be a serious player down the postseason stretch yet again, San Antonio has come up limp. The timing couldn’t have been worse when team steals leader and bench spark plug, Manu Ginobili was ruled out for the season. Down 3-1 and facing an early exit, can the Spurs find extended life? Are we looking at any value with Dallas listed as a 5 ½-point visiting favorite?
If Game 1 was any indication of things to come then the 105-97 victory in favor of Dallas could be considered “the message”. Despite dropping Game 2, 105-84, the Mavericks found their grove back home. Games 3 and 4 have seen Dallas bombing San Antonio out of the building, beating its opponent by 21 and nine points respectively.
Given the fact that books have listed the Spurs at the 5 ½-point mark, it’s easy to say that bettors on the right side of the counter haven’t seen their blood pressure skyrocket. In the four games played thus far an average difference of 14.8 PPG has gone well beyond the set point spreads.
And with these games becoming blowouts for the most part (exception given to Game 1) the total has been extra insensitive to capitalize on. The ‘over’ in this series is at a strong 3-1 despite the overall totals trend favoring the ‘under’ at 12-2 in the last 14 round one games overall. Could we be looking at another high scoring contest? The ‘over’ at 7-3 in San Antonio’s last 10 games when books have installed them as the favorite sure helps support this totals argument.
Rewinding the tape back to Game 4 for a moment is proof that despite Tony Parker slicing and dicing his way to the hoop for an exhausting 43 points and Tim Duncan adding 25 points to the board, the Spurs still couldn’t stop the Mavs in the second-half. The real damage was done in the third quarter as Dallas outscored its competition, 29-16.
The reoccurring theme is the Mavs dominating all but one game in the second-half (Mavs are averaging 24.8 PPG in the second-half versus the Spurs’ 20.1 PPG during round 1). While elementary by design, Dallas has found success by spreading the ball around. In the three wins, the Mavericks have had five or more players scoring double-digit figures.
"I'm very curious to see if the Spurs do indeed show up being down 3-1," said Vegasinsider.com handicapper Jamie Tursini. "They seem like an old team all of a sudden, and Dallas just seems to be a step ahead."
Although Dallas has executed team effort to perfection it’s still impressive that Josh Howard is averaging 19.3 PPG on 48.1 percent shooting. In Saturday’s home victory, Howard hit 50 percent of his shots (scoring 28 points) on top of going 11-for-13 from the charity strip.
San Antonio enters this 9:30 p.m. EST with a 3-9 ATS slide in its last 12 home stands. The ‘under’ is 12-4 in the Mavericks last 16 games as an underdog. An installed total of 190 ½ is close to topping Game 3’s 191 high total of the series (which happened to be the lone ‘under’ contest in this round 1 matchup).
TNT will provide full coverage.
Houston at Portland (-5 ½, 182) – 10:00 p.m. EST on NBATV
Despite being down 3-1 in the series, Portland has attempted to keep its games as close as possible. Minus Game 1’s 108-81 blitz by the Rockets, the Trail Blazers haven’t allowed the point difference, whether plus or minus, from reaching higher then four.
And so Portland will attempt to string out its duel against Houston as long as possible. The problem standing in the way is the Rockets' 8-2 straight up and 6-4 ATS record in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Combine that with Houston’s 4-1 ATS streak in the last five played in Portland and the road team going 4-0 ATS in the last four road games and there’s some trendy obstacles to maneuver around.
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| Shane Battier and the Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 when installed as 3 1/2 to six-point road underdogs. (GETTY Images) |
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The real backbreaker came on Sunday. Up 70-64 heading into the fourth quarter, the Blazers found themselves ultimately losing the lead and the game when they were outscored, 25-18 in the fourth. Despite Brandon Roy laying down 31 points and LaMarcus Aldridge and Travis Outlaw combining for 33, Houston’s 56.2 percent rate from three range proved to be just one of many deciding factors. The final result was the Rockets snapping a six-game losing streak in Game 4’s, hanging its success up on the 89-88 final score.
A pattern that appeared to be strong entering Game 3, but one that has been interrupted in the last two games, was the ‘over’ record sitting at 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings. In the three meetings held between both clubs during the regular season the ‘over’ clocked in at a perfect 3-0. Having books install totals at an average 186.2 PPG in those four meetings was surely underrated as both clubs came together to average 194 PPG.
It’s tough to envision Portland coming back home to take Game 4 from the Rockets on Tuesday. After the disappointing letdown in Game 3 every indication points to the Trail Blazers entering this tip-off in demoralized fashion. Some things must change for the better if Portland wants a fighting chance.
The Blazers’ Roy must stop his one-man offensive band as 28.3 PPG in the four playoff appearances and just five assists in the last three demonstrate. Roy is coming off a regular season which had him dishing the ball 5.1 times per game. Ultimately, it comes down to getting around a Houston defense which has allowed Portland to score just 85.5 PPG in the last two games and 90.2 PPG in the last six meetings.
“As far as Portland and Houston are concerned, the Blazers had a great chance to win Sunday and they let it get away,” said Tursini. Will the young Portland team react like a young team after losing, now down 3-1 and fold”?
When the Trail Blazers have been installed as a 3 ½ to six-point home favorite, a perfect 8-0 record on the ‘over’ has been crafted. Then again, when set at the aforementioned point spreads, Portland is also a disappointing 6-16 ATS in the last 22.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
