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Thursday's TNT Tip Sheet
 
 
 

Right off the bat, how much better can a series get then what’s transpired between Chicago and Boston? Not only is this first round matchup, hands down, the most exciting to take place in the 2008-09 playoffs so far but gamblers have enjoyed several avenues of money making trends.

A 4-1 record on the ‘over’ in the five playoff appearances has backed an even stronger 6-1 ‘over’ performance in the last seven head-to-head meetings. And despite losing an emotional Game 5, 106-104 in overtime, the Bulls have been responsible for covering four of the last six meetings with the Celtics.

Returning to Chicago on Thursday, books like Bodog.com have decided to return the home town Bulls as three-point favorites. That’s the exact number that was attached to Chi-Town back in Game 4, ultimately resulting in a 'push' as the final score of 121-118 indicated.

What has changed drastically is the total being lowered to 195 ½. The lowest number published throughout this series was 197 in Game 2. The result of that contest had Chicago’s Ben Gordon draining 42 points and Ray Allen leading his Celtics with 30. The ‘over’ once again was the name of the game as a final score of 118-115 in favor Boston had the final say in this matter.

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Chicago finds itself on the brink of ending the season while Boston is looking to take a load off for just a moment before it plans on advancing to the conference semifinals.

If there’s indication or evidence of a “sure bet” it must be linked to the three overtime games that have already been produced in the series. The three OTs (a new NBA playoff record) have seen the total score between both clubs averaging a sky high, 219 points. And that’s worked in favor of bettors willing to ride the trend until it crests, even though the total set by books has broken the 200-point mark twice already in the playoffs?

Can we anticipate the ‘over’ to come calling again? It’s tough to go against the grain given the Celtics’ 10-2 record on the ‘over’ during the month of April, and the Bulls’ untouchable 6-0 performance on the ‘over’ when installed as a home favorite of three points or less.

We can’t overlook the fact that Boston has also been able to score triple-digit points in seven straight head-to-head matches against Chicago (the Bulls have scored triple-digits in six of seven head-to-head games). This is a Celtics’ team responsible for 114.1 PPG despite a just above average, 4-3 straight up record in this matchup.

Both squads have has success when the total has been installed between 195 and 199 ½ this season. In this spot, the Bulls are now 9-5 on the ‘over’ while the Celts have flourished with a 15-9 record on the same ‘over’ bet.

Would things have been different if the foul on Chicago’s Brad Miller would have resulted in a technical? But more realistically, would the Bulls be sitting pretty with the 3-2 lead if Miller could have sunk both free throws? As we all know there’s no woulda, coulda, shoulda in sports and gambling anyway. A moot point indeed

Some factors which were tough to predict in Game 5 included Chicago’s inaccurate medical report on whether or not Ben Gordon (hamstring) would play (big surprise as injury reports are a joke anyway), Boston’s Paul Pierce scoring six of his 26 points in overtime and Ray Allen being tossed from the game after picking up foul No. six.

Portland at Houston (-4 ½, 179 ½) – 9:30 p.m. ET

It’s been a tough series for Portland, but backers have been more then happy to collect three straight ATS wins in the last three. Returning back to Houston down 3-2 in the best of seven format, the Trail Blazers will be looking for a huge road victory as 4 ½-point ‘dogs.

For Portland to get this first round matchup at even-steven the team must break a 17-10 SU record in the last 27 games played in Houston. Over the short term, the Blazers are a winless, 0-5 SU (3-2 ATS) in the same venue as the road team.

 
'08-09 Head to Head Playoff Meetings
04/18/09 Houston 108 (+5) vs. Portland 81 OVER 182
04/21/09 Portland 107 at Houston (+6) 103 OVER 183
04/24/09 Houston 86 vs. Portland (+6) 83 UNDER 185
04/26/09 Houston 89 vs. Portland (+5) 88 UNDER 182
04/28/09 Portland 88 (-5.5) vs. Houston 77 UNDER 182.5

If we can isolate a winning formula for how Portland can even this series up then look no further then to Game 5’s 88-77 victory. Thanks to LaMarcus Aldridge and team leader, Brandon Roy coming together for 50 points (making up 57% of the team’s scoring production), the Trail Blazers were able to outscore their opponent, 25-15 in the fourth quarter. But the real hero was a defensive unit which held Houston under 20 points in three of the four quarters played. This effort also coincided with the third straight ‘under’ play.

From the Rockets’ standpoint, it should be business as usual in-front of the home crowd. Despite averaging 94.3 PPG in the past three victories, Houston has been able to shift the balance of power by allowing Portland to score a deplorable, 84 PPG. However, we can flip the script and say that the Blazers have held the Rockets in check during the last three games, allowing a coincidental, 84 PPG. The by-product has been the three-game ‘under’ run.

Entering Thursday’s contest, the ‘under’ is a hot 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Houston. And despite the horrible luck when playing in Houston, Texas, Portland has actually faired quite well at the window by rewarding backers with a 6-2 ATS record.

If Portland wants redemption then Steve Blake must continue averaging 11.4 PPG and 6.4 APG while Travis Outlaw will be looked upon to continue averaging double-digit scoring numbers as the last two games are testament to (24 points and nine rebounds combined in the last two games).

The 4 ½-points that have been set for this contest are the lowest so far in the series. Books have been consistent in setting spreads from a low, five points to a high of six. What really strikes a cord is the total set at a bottom low, 179 1/2. The last time a total was set close to this value was back in April of 2008. Houston ended up taking the contest, 95-86 as the 'over' came cashing in on the 178 1/2-point total.  

TNT will be providing coverage of both contests, beginning at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com

  
HEADLINES
ASA: Totals Report
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