Breaking the seal on this conference semifinal series was an Orlando team which led by as much as 28 points in the second half. Boston pushed hard through the fourth quarter, cutting the lead down to three points with six seconds left in the game. But the Magic prevailed as slight 1 ½-point visiting underdogs.
The story line in-between top scorers, the final result and whether or not you cashed in at the window was Orlando becoming lax in all facets of the game. If you’ve seen this team play during the regular season then it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Magic can look unstoppable and then down right pitiful all in the same game.
What will Game 2 bring to the table? Is making the Celtics a 3 ½-point home favorite the right figure in this matchup? Can certain trends, which have been financially viable, remain on course? And are we looking at a bounce back spot?
After Orlando finished Game 1 shooting 43.2 percent and Boston falling flat for a 38.5 percent rating from the wood, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the ‘under’ struck gold yet again. Monday’s game was the fourth straight ‘under’ that has cashed in the last four head-to-head meetings and the fifth ‘under’ in the last six between these two teams. But the million dollar question remains, why are we seeing this totals trend continuing to rake in the bucks?
For one, books can’t seem to lower the total in any one game low enough. Monday’s showdown closed at 188 ½ while the past three other meetings during the regular season has totals set at 189, 196.5 and 191.5 respectively. In the same four games mentioned, the combined score between both clubs has averaged a low, 171.5 PPG. Staying on topic, Orlando is now 5-1 on the ‘under’ in its last six playoff appearances this year and 19-7 in its last 26 overall contests.
The next issue deals with the Magic’s Dwight Howard. While he’s a specimen of an athlete physically his leadership skills can be classified as annulled at times. Despite averaging 22.7 PPG and 16.8 RPG throughout the postseason, there seems to be something missing. When we bring up leadership, Kobe Bryant barking orders at his teammates and LeBron James hyping up the floor through action and words comes to mind. Just a personal observation
Be it as it may, Orlando is up 1-0 in this series. The problem is we must curb our enthusiasm and expectations as the Magic are a lonely, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 tip-offs in Boston. What Orlando has done differently in its last two victories at the Garden has been playing stiff defense. In a Mar. 3, regular season game up in Boston, Orlando was once again able to close down its opponent by allowing another low, 39.5 percent shooting performance from the field. Sounds familiar to Monday’s lockdown defense executed.
But is this really a surprise in the Magic’s overall strategy? Orlando held Philadelphia to scoring 88.5 PPG in round 1 and finished off the regular season allowing 94.4 PPG. The bottom line is that the Magic are now 51-38 on the ‘under’ in both the regular and post seasons. Orlando is also 37-26 on the ‘under’ after coming off a win the game before.
Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo struggled in Game 1 for the men in green, combining for 4-of-24 from the field and 1-of-9 from beyond the arc. But the most damaging of stats was allowing the Magic to capitalize from inside the paint, scoring 42 of its 95 points.
Think before approaching the window as the Celtics are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight second round games while Orlando has embarked on a 2-5 ATS slide (despite cashing in two straight) in its last seven road games. Those looking to counter the ‘under’ run can look to Boston’s 31-15 record on the ‘over’ in the last 46 home games.
Bettors had a chance to chase the 2nd half spread as Boston closed the board as a 5 ½-point favorite. The Celtics emerged on top of that bet, outscoring the Magic 54-41 in the second half. Our closing number is Boston’s 19-6 ATS record in the last 25 games versus Orlando.
Houston at L.A. Lakers (-10, 193) – 10:30 p.m. EST
It’s a little too early to start thinking about series upset, but what Game 1 proved was that Houston has a good shot at threatening the Lakers in a prolonged best of seven.
A quick snapshot of Monday’s 100-92 win had the Rockets shooting 47.9 percent from the court and 86.2 percent from the free throw line. But Houston executed its most effective game plan by forcing L.A.’s Kobe Bryant into throwing up 31 shot attempts. Granted Bryant recorded 32 points, but there’s no doubt that the pressure applied via the Rockets caused the Lakers to become a one man band. Outside of Bryant, L.A. had Trevor Ariza (10), Pau Gasol (14) and Andrew Bynum (10) donating just 34 points to the lost cause.
Putting this into perspective, the Lakers dropped 14 games during the season when Bryant took 20 or more shot attempts. There’s a serious correlation between L.A.’s No. 1 star attempting to put too much weight on his offensive production and overall losses.
We can’t overlook the Rockets’ center Yao Ming who even after walking off the court after bumping knees with Bryant returned to the court, finishing the contest off with 28 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks. But it was Ron Artest who made good on his derogatory words aimed at Bryant several days ago, scoring 21 and dishing out seven assists. Artest is averaging 16.4 PPG throughout the playoffs.
Historically speaking this was Houston’s first win versus the Lake Show since grabbing a 104-92 victory back in March of 2008 (covering as 3 ½-point favorites). Since then it’s been a horror show for the Rockets who have been outscored by a whopping 102.8 to 89.8 PPG (13 PPG margin).
| 2008-09 Head to Head Meetings |
| 5/4/2009 |
Houston (+8.5) 100 at L.A. Lakers 92 |
UNDER 193 |
| 4/3/2009 |
L.A. Lakers (-5.5) 93 vs. Houston 81 |
UNDER 196 |
| 3/11/2009 |
L.A. Lakers (+3.5) 102 at Houston 96 |
UNDER 201 |
| 1/13/2009 |
L.A. Lakers (-4) 105 at Houston 100 |
OVER 195.5 | |
But it was pay back on Monday as not only did Houston rock the window as 8 ½-point underdogs but also relayed money back to backers in the 1st and 2nd half as both 4 ½-point ‘dogs.
Books are taking on a more aggressive path for Game 2, currently listing the Lakers as 10-point favorites. A back-to-back total of 193 appears to be in support of Houston’s not so fancy offense. Take into account that the Rockets closed out the regular season scoring 98.4 PPG (17th ranked) while pulling the trigger from the field at 45.3 percent (22nd). Despite hitting triple-digit scoring figures three times in the playoffs thus far, the Rockets are still averaging just 93.6 PPG.
Are we looking at Houston applying pressure on defense and tapering down on the scoring front for its sixth ‘under’ play in a row? In support, L.A. is a scorching 20-7 on the ‘under’ when installed as the favorite and are 10-4 in the last 14 home games. Ending on a totals note, L.A. is 13-5 on the ‘under’ after coming off a SU loss.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.